Average new car price zips 2.6% to $33,560 Average age of car owner 51 Average age of the car on road - 11.5 years Average time new car kept - 78mo (6.5 years) So millenniums no longer buying cars, b/c they cannot afford them. Do you think car sales in US will implode in next 5-10 years?[/quote]
I don't think it will implode. As someone who falls into the millennium age group, I feel like my age group isn't buying cars because their parents buy them cars. I bought my first car 7 years ago and due to an accident had to buy another one a few months ago. I know very few people though my age who have had to buy a car because their moms and/or dads have bought or given their kid one.
Car sales have been going up to higher records not down, everything I've heard says arrows pointing up next few years. I've heard one possible plus factor is wars ending, seems car sales went up after Vietnam was over as service men and women returned to domestic life, and some feel that seems to be happening again. May be other factors too climbing from 2008 Great Recession.
Another interesting fact: half of the people between 21 and 34 live below poverty line, when you exclude their parents income. Have talked to gal at container store an a couple pizza delivery guys. All college graduates can't find job working part-time.
Or they need to work multiple part time jobs. The job market is tight. Yes, there are new jobs created from emerging sciences or new technology requiring new specialization but the move to automation has an effect on available human-jobs (that and a burgeoning population). More ppl = more jobs required. More automation = fewer jobs required. There's a problem. And when drones are commercialized, you'll lose delivery people (pizza, courier & mail, milk)
Machines can only replace people from the neck down, and employment data suggest that there will actually be a shortage of humans in the work force as more boomers reach retirement age and live longer lives--obesity and nutritional shortcomings notwithstanding. True. There are a lot of college grads with $250,000 degrees in under water basket-weaving (an under appreciated field) that are 'underemployed.' There are also jobs out there that are going to H1B Visa holders, because many of the aforementioned masters of under water basket-weaving peaked at their mall jobs. The 2015 INCONUS poverty line for a single bean is about 12 thou.....and that's fairly impoverished for the US! Of course.....when you go outside the United States, earning most of $1,000 a month will make you a one-percenter, but that's statistics for you. The reason why cars in the US average almost $35,000 has to do in equal parts with market forces and all of the doo-dads that our beloved government mandate for a minimally-equipped car in a futile attempt to thwart Darwinism and comply with clean air and CAFE standards. That's why you can buy a brand-new Tata Nano in India for $2,000 and why the absolute cheapest car in the US is about ten times more expensive. The reason that I mentioned the B-word in an earlier post is that cars are also living longer. A crap car that's owned by a driver that never opens the hood may smoke like Speaker Boehner, and drink like a USSS agent in South America but it will probably still knock down 200,000 miles before it dies. Combine that with the fact that my wife's Yorkie probably qualifies for a dealership's teaser loan and you get many of the necessary ingredients for a car bubble. I've ACTUALLY talked to people who aren't 25 yet who have six figures in college debt, five figures in car debt, and four maxed out credit cards, and can't figure out why they can't afford a new house. I've also talked to people driving upside-down in $40,000 cars that retail for $25,000 because they rolled their previous car(S) into yet another loan to satisfy that four-year itch that they scratched with a six year loan-----and those are the SMART ones!! There are real people out there (F)leasing base model cars that they put lunar mileage on. If you 'have' to buy a new car? You can still get left-over '15 Priuses for less than $20,000 - OTD and banks (NOT dealers!) are lending money for less than 2%. which is less than $450 a month for a four year loan. Not only will your car still be in good shape when it's paid for, but it will still be just as efficient and dependable as the G3s have always been. AND you can probably drive it long enough after it's paid off save up for some zany stuff like an IRA, or a down payment for a house. Or? You can pay down your college loan and save a lot of gas while you're delivering pizza!
Much ado about nothing. Does that 2.6% include inflation? I don't know what the average transaction price for a vehicle in 1989 was but one of the best selling cars in the U.S. is cheaper now than it was 15 years ago. I'd start with the hypothesis that millennials are not buying cars but mature drivers are still buying skewing the average up. Cars are not getting more expensive. Is today's Honda Accord cheaper than it was back in 1989?
1989 Oldsmobile Delta 88 19/28mpg MSRP $17896.00 2000 Oldsmobile Intrigue 19/28mpg MSRP $24825.00 2006 Toyota Prius Package 3 60/51mpg MSRP $23780.00 2010 Toyota Prius V-AT 51/48mpg MSRP $34016.00 I found the window stickers easily but it would take some digging to find the sales invoices. Watch Let's Make a Deal on BUZZR and you'll see how much more cars retail for now and how much smaller they've become. I know 4 examples don't mean much as there are many choices from many manufacturers who have their own varied problems from time to time. Mom's newer Malibu was half the price of my 2010 in part because Chevy was piling the rebates on to move inventory and it doesn't have the gizmos. Interest rates also rise and fall. People forget (and young people wouldn't know) that we've had 8 years of central bank manipulation that has depressed and kept rates to next to nothing. The bubble is going to burst. They always do.
thank you mr. o'b. otoh, all 3 of my children work in industries that are hiring and pay living wage.
The current car I have is a 2008 smart fortwo. I paid $16K for it brand new/pre-order type deal... (oops). That, to me, felt extravagant, with its heated leather seats, rain sensing wipers, etc... I've had it for 7.5 years, and I desperately want a new car. I'm making myself wait until my student loan (I'm almost 40!!), motorcycle loan, and credit card are all paid off. That should be done by May next year. But then, I've got that pesky second mortgage I took out when I bought the house 9 years ago.... maybe I should pay that off first, too... but then I'd have to wait another, probably, 2 years to get a new car. Not sure what I'm going to do there yet... I'm guessing I'll get the car, pay it off, then attack the mortgages... But, then when it comes time to buy a new car, I can't STAND the idea of paying over $20K for a car... But I want neat-o things in the new car! hehehe... I don't want to adult any more... )
Not quite related to Topic, but: Why Toyota and Honda Owners Refuse to Give Up Their Cars The Top New Cars Owners Keep for 10 Years – iSeeCars Study
Keep them 'til they are safety hazard is my motto. One that was expressed many times by Click&Clack on their old NPR show. I got rid of my '83 Toyota Tercel in 2005. The 1987 Corolla went in 2010. We'll wait and see on the Prius.
That's a nice article about Prius and I think it's true. Besides reliability is practical car. Implications for Prius Chat if ~25% of owners hold for 10-yrs. Maybe we should do survey to see if we match that. Note that only thru 2005 MY could be held for 10-yrs at this point, so that's the minority of overall Prius sales to date.
