After The Oil Runs Out

End of Suburbia

The subject of peak oil is well covered in the documentary, End of Suburbia. One thing the documentary describes is how we’ll have to move back into cities, because suburbia is only sustainable with large amounts of cheap oil.
M. King Hubbert’s prediction of U.S. peak oil—according to Suburbia—was actually for the ‘60s. However, the documentary does say that it won’t be until ten years (approximately) down the road that we’ll know the moment that peak oil happened.
One thing I don’t know is if China’s ever increasing need for oil has been factored into the peak oil calculations. They will be our competitors and when it comes down to it, whom do you think will win? The irony is that we’re the ones who started this problem (just like with Al Qaeda) when we advertised to the Chinese that they needed cars and other European/Caucasian crap. :x

Getting off the soapbox,
Esther

 

Necessity is the mother of invention. Mankind will evolve to solve the oil problem, just like it has solved all others; remember how the AIDS epidemic was going to decimate the world population? Nothing short of a cataclysmic collision with a comet is going to decimate mankind; as a species we are as tough to kill as cockroaches.

 

Remember, "Decimate" means to kill one in 10

The root is when the Romans would kill 1/10 a rebellious legion as an example to others.

It really wouldn't take much to decimate humanity, but our cockroach-like tendencies may make it harder to eradicate us.

 

I wonder if "X-prize" type competitions could foster alternative energy development. 10 mil was enough incentive for 20+ teams to build rockets. Could 10 or even 100 million spur industry to develop the real products that will change our energy consumption habits?

 

Not the cockroaches I grew up with.

 

This above post brings to mind a rather well known Sociology/Economics essay called "The Tragedy of the Commons" by Garrett Hardin (1968). The basic model of which is the Town Commons which has an ability to support a fixed number of cattle grazing while waiting to go to market. If each owner abides by his quota, all can happily coexist. However, if one person cheats and exceeds his quota then he gains an advantage (more cows to sell) over his neighbors. This in turns encourages others to cheat and put more cows on the Commons as well. Ultimately destroying the Commons as a resource for all. The Essay doesn't provide any answers and as I recall was quite depressing, but for those interested, a very thought provoking read. There are a number of follow-on articles that have been written over the years in response as well. One of the best that I know of is titled "Beyond the Tragedy of the Commons."

Has implications about social RESPONSIBILITY at ALL levels.

Jon

 

Something not mentioned here is the use of oil in the production of plastics. Unless I'm mistaken, oil is integral in the production of ALL plastics, the absence of which would be devestating to the global economy. I imagine there are going to be companies in the next 10-20 years that start "mining" US landfills for old plastic garbage...

I don't see how anyone can say, with a straight face, that "hydrogen power" is a solution. Unless they figure out a way to grow hydrogen on a tree, its not a real solution. Hydrogen isn't a power source, its a power storage medium.

I think the technology exists today to radically slash our energy needs without impacting the quality of life in this country (the US). The whole 4% of world population, 25% of world energy consumption thing means that changes in the US are key.

As I understand it, I think Beijing is at least a little concerned about the pollution coming from their rapid industrialization. A recent WSJ article mentioned something about hybrids vs SUVs in the Chinese market.

But honestly, the US can't realistically preach energy conservation to anyone, anywhere, so long as that insane 4%/25% ratio exists. I really wish this was a more central topic in the Presidential campaigns this year. If more people knew more about this, there would be a greater call to action. And on a debate on this subject, Kerry would absolutely crush Bush. Heck, a retarded gerbil could crush Bush.

 

Eco-Plastic

You missed another of the many environmental design features of the Prius.

Toyota has developed, and patented, what they call an 'eco-plastic' (or sometimes bio-plastic), which is made entirely from vegetable matter.

They have set up a demonstration plant (limited capacity), and yes, some of the plastic in the Prius is made from plants. It's just part of the whole laundry list of environmental decisions made on the Prius. Like designing every piece of the car to be recyclable, and setting up a Battery Refurbish/Recovery plant even before the batteries start dying. That plant is in mothballs right now, until need ramps up.

However, the eco-plastics have been a success, and they are in the process of building a full scale production facility. They are now putting eco-plastics in other cars as well (Avensis I think?)

I have tried to find out exactly which bits are plant-plastic, with the hope that if I ever get stuck in a snow drift I could survive on knobs and trim, but no one has quite been able to tell me

 

The link to Toyota's press release on Bio-plastics:


http://www.toyota.co.jp/en/special/biotech...hnology/02.html


Jon

 

Toyota to build Bio Plastic Plant

http://www.toyota.co.jp/en/news/03/0724.html

Since the base material of bio-plastics is a plant like sugarcane, which absorbs CO2 from the air as it grows, bio-plastics contribute to the prevention of global warming, compared to conventional petroleum-based plastics. Furthermore, bio-plastics can be given biodegradable properties that allow them to be broken down into water and carbon dioxide by microorganisms in the ground, helping to solve waste disposal problems. As such, bio-plastics can make a significant contribution to reducing environmental impact.

 

Not only crude oil but also natural gas will be scarce. Now most of our hydrogen comes from natural gas. In the future, where will the hydrogen come from to feed W’s hydrogen economy?

"....The big three of ASPO, Colin Campbell, Kjell Aleklett, and Jean Laherrère – accompanied by the de facto star of the event – investment banker Matthew Simmons – had their work cut out for them; not with the audience but with those who had come to deny. Natural gas issues facing Europe took up most of the first day. Two things quickly became clear on that account. First, almost all of Europe, soon even perhaps Ireland, was going to become dependent upon Russian natural gas to stay warm (Britain has just become a net gas importer in the face of North Sea decline). Second, Russia had much less natural gas than the economists and bookkeepers had predicted. Simmons asked rhetorically why anyone would stake their future on four large Russian fields that had been shown to be in permanent decline.

It was a good question, especially in light of the fact that Laherrère, with his renowned calculations, concluded that natural gas demand in Europe was going to grow at 6.4% per year; that the global natural gas cliff would hit by approximately 2030; and that there would be zero reserves left by 2050. He calmly announced that, as far as Russian gas reserves went, there was a 50% difference between the technical data on Russian gas and what he called the “political†data.

Simmons pointed out that North America hit its natural gas peak in 1973 and is now falling off the production cliff. Presentations exploring Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports to the US concluded what FTW already knew. The cost is too expensive, the lead time too long, and the capital investment too great to make much of a difference here. ---"




http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/...erlin_peak.html