Effect of cheap oil prices

They aren't getting money directly, but can reduce or avoid CAFE fees for the less efficient models sold.

 

thank you. same thing, i suppose.

 

Alternate fuel vehicles count as more than one for determining the CAFE number. A 1.2 to 1.8 depending on type of 'fuel'. They get an edge over a an efficient gasoline or diesel model for that purpose.

 

$900/kwh is much higher than anyone is spending on a battery. Tesla batteries which use a less expensive panasonic cell cost less than $300/kwh. The lg cells used in the volt batteries are rumored to have dropped enough so they will cost less than $400/kwh for the battery in the next gen volt. The panasonic cells toyota use may be more than lg, as they don't need liquid cooling, but they certainly should be bellow $500/kwh by end of 2016 when the next phv comes out. That makes the upper bound of a 16kwh battery cost $8000.

Of course as toyota is claiming that they don't want battery tax credits, they are asking for higher and higher fuel cell tax credits. Its a very dishonest game their marketing department has been playing and that has hurt prius phv sales both in japan and the US.

Volume is a bigger problem. Volt batteries only increased kwh/liter by 20% in the last 5 years. The lg lithium polymer bettery in the sonata phv is physically smaller but its not likely toyota would swap suppliers. Still designers should be able to find room for at least a 7kwh battery in the next generation.

Tesla expects that batteries will drop to $100/kwh in less than a decade.

 

On that basis a reg Prius batt costs $500, right? Heading to $100 in the next few years?

 

and the pip would be $1,500. more? wold be nice if they sold it for that.

 

No, we have no clue what the battery in the prius costs. Ford said that panasonic sold them lithium for less than they were selling them nimh batteries. The cost to toyota may be lower, but nimh advances are over, so they are not dropping in price. I don't think $500/khw is a bad guess though for toyota, so at 1.3kwh that is $650. It is likely lithium is already lower than nimh though, but lithium requires some more expensive electronics. You need these electronics whether you make it a 4kwh phev or a 20 kwh phev.

Toyota though can definitely switch to lithium in future hybrids and drop costs.

 

Conservation and efficiency are key to long term sustainability. Current events may seem enticing, but we are still in Peak Everything. I am amazed at short-sighted buyers and manufacturers that still flock to SUVs and conventional ICEs. Our 2007 Prius (163000 mi) and 2015 Leaf serve us very well. Our SIP-based passive solar home is comfortable year round. Proper orientation and design keeps us warm in winter and cool in summer. With PV panels we have no utility bill.

The Keystone pipeline proposes to bring above cost oil from Alberta, Canada to the Gulf of Mexico (short term thinking).