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murai fuel cell gets a video and plans for other states.

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Nov 17, 2014.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    It was me, bob got the quotes wrong. I do like the metric though, it does let you see how much the US is paying for car

    say that the first $100M of the $220M gets 10,000 cars and these come with the direct $13,000/fcv subsidies for a total of $23,000 for each fcv. Is that enough for do we need to spend say $18,000 per vehicle for the next 10,000 to do the experiment. 12 stations in 5 states that get 300 cars will likely be what $24M for 300 cars, that is $80,000 per car fueling subsidy even before direct federal and state subsidies.
     
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  2. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    Going off at a bit of a tangent but after reading this (and a similar) thread about the viability of FCVs and how ready or not they are for market got me thinking.

    One of the regular comments of naysayers about BEVs is that the batteries are very expensive to replace if they fail out of warranty. I guess this is true and the replacement for a Nissan Leaf or a Renault EV is about £5,000 (or $5,000 as our prices inc 20% tax). Many warranties are 100k miles and that isn't a particularly high mileage these days.

    So how long will a fuel cell last and how much would it cost to replace if it failed outside of warranty? £10k? £20k? more? What is the most expensive part on a FCV?

    I'm just curious that after spending £60k on a Mirai, whether it would have a further sting in it's tail.
     
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    If Toyota priced the fuel cell like its replacement battery it would cost more than the car. The most expensive part is the fuel cell which probably costs toyota at least 20,000 pounds today, but they claim costs will drop rapidly. They don't expect anyone to actualy buy the car, but to lease it for 3 years. They may re lease it, or crush it, after that time period, they have earned the zev credits. The fuel cell has an 8 year 100,000 mile warranty. If it breaks after that I say the car is scrap.


    Nissan's replacement battery price in the US is $5500 but given advances in cars it may be likely that it is sold for scrap (may have a higher residual value, bad pack is worth at least $1000) and a new car replaces it.
     
  4. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    So your battery fails on a 110k mile Leaf, you scrap it as it's borderline viable whether to bother fixing.

    The fuel cell fails on your 110k mile Mirai, you also scrap it as it's not viable spending £20k on a new fuel cell and people with the expertise to fix them will be thin on the ground.

    Hmmm. It's been hard enough convincing the public that replacing a battery in a BEV is just the same cost as changing the transmission in a traditional car. Convincing them that replacing a £20k/$30k fuel cell will be impossible. And who would buy a second hand or used FCV out of warranty?

    Is it me or do FCVs just not add up?
     
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  5. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    That's an excellent question and I was planning to raise it on this thread in the near future.

    I haven't been following fuel cell technology very closely until recently. I understand that fuel cell stacks wear out as they are used although I don't understand why (buildup of contaminants from impure hydrogen and air pollution etc.?). Over time the stack is able to put out less and less power and eventually needs to be replaced.

    This has apparently been one of the (many) major fuel cell engineering challenges. From the limited reading I have done, fuel cells have needed to be replaced after 75-100k miles.

    Has Toyota improved this to 150,000 miles or more? I don't know and they haven't said much about that as far as I can tell.
     
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  6. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    The subsidy.
     
  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The Leaf may get scrapped because the current rate of battery improvement means the newest model will likely have longer range and other possible performance improvements. Then upgrading an older model to the newer pack may involve other expenses beyond the pack itself, like reprograming the computer and possible upgrades for the charger and inverter.

    FCVs are looking to be disposable cars, which may be the point. Last I heard, the fuel cell stack is only good for 100k miles. That was awhile back, but any improvements haven't been really publicized(hah a z). Whether or not the fuel cell itself lasts longer, the high pressure hydrogen tanks will eventually need to be replaced at a cost over a $1000 per tank, and these cars tend to have multiple tanks.

    No one from the FCV camp talks about it, CNG tanks have a shelf life that starts from date of manufacturer. Granted, type IV tanks, which use the same materials as hydrogen tanks, can have a shelf life of 20 to 25 years, but there are a couple of major differences between CNG and hydrogen. First, CNG for vehicles maxes at 3500psi vs. the 10,000psi for hydrogen. Then natural gas is a far more benign gas than hydrogen to materials.

    I'm guessing manufacturers can claim these parts are good for the life of the car, which they likely mean 150k miles. That is fair span, but ICEs and hybrids aren't dead at that point, and they can be passed along to a family member or sold to someone that will use it. Even a BEV could still be usable if the remaining EV range is long enough. I suspect a FCV will require some pricy repair. Perhaps the cost will along the lines of transmission or cheaper repair on a traditional vehicle, but transmission and battery replacement isn't an absolute requirement at certain point in a car's life. Hydrogen fuel tanks will be.
     
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  8. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    So it'll be a pig to keep for anything other than leased. Nobody would want one second hand or an older one purely because it'll become an expensive nightmare. Like you say, many older cars that are still safe and serviceable are passed onto family members (think teens) who can still get a good few years of life out of the car before they prang it - as teens do.

    Even a high mileage Tesla S with a much reduced 50 mile range would still have a use somewhere.
     
  9. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    A car traction pack still has a usable life in a UPS or peak shaving system after it is 'dead' for car use. The cost to repair or replace them on a car will also come down in time as there number and third party restoring companies increase.

    Perhaps a fuel cell too far gone for a car can see use as a back up generator. It may not simply die, and the car could see use where reduced performance doesn't matter. The high pressure fuel tanks are the weak link though.
     
  10. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    No one can tell the future, but yes at those prices the only way people should touch a fcv is on a lease, it will like depreciate more than the lease payments. This was true of the first plug-ins also other than the tesla roadster (unique car, not a cheap lease).

    A tesla S may end up being a classic, and people will replace the packs. Economics are different than for a fcv or even a leaf. That leaf probably won't die quickly when the waranty runs out, but simply get less range. The typical leaf buyer only does a daily 29 miles, so much pack degradation can happen and the car still usable.
     
  11. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    But how can the cost of a FCV come down? It has lots and lots of platinum in it. A BEV has lots of lithium which is nowhere near as rare or expensive.
     
  12. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    A lot of the read's I've come across prop up large format for hydrogen as being better, C02 wise ... making an argument to balance the high cost for putting hydrogen in cars' smaller format. However, I just read the article below which contradicts hydrogen even being good/clean for busses?!
    They made an easy to read chart of the clean comparisons.
    Electric buses best, hydrogen worst

    I've already posted on how hydrogen busses are are more costly (maintenance wise) per mile than traditional commuter transportation, and now this. But hey, we still plow forward.
    .
     
    #92 hill, Dec 3, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2014
  13. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Much of the R&D directly into the fuel stack itself is in reducing the platinum content. Then there are the cost savings in going from limited number shop production to large scale factory. The price has come down. I don't think Toyota would be as keen on pushing a FCV if they were still nearly a million dollars a piece. If there wasn't a Tesla S or Volt for comparison, the price for the Mirai wouldn't seem as bad.

    I think the fuel cell can have a future as a range extender, but I don't think liquid or high pressure hydrogen will be how such future ones are fueled.
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I would just like to see a FC for my laptop that I could buy . . . not some Press Release fuel cell for a Dept. of Defense special project.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  15. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    IIRC there is only about $3000 of platinum and palladium in the fuel cell, and perhaps they could cut that to 1/3 of what is currently used much like they did with catalytic converters. The big drop according to DOE is if you make 500,000/year the manufacturing experience would build machines that could somehow pump these out for about $55/kw. The mirai has 114 kw so that works out to be $6270. With the low volume they have now though they have to build less expensive machines that require more labor, and these machines need to be amortized over many fewer fuel cells, so we are probably looking at $50,000 in cost if you assume those machines to produce them will work over 10,000 fuel cells. If they only make 3000 then the fuel cell is even more expensive. Still if you can sell tens of thousands (20,000)/year it should be much cheaper for machines and labor than 2000 a year it looks like Toyota is planning for 2017. No one has really designed these better machines to make fuel cells because, lets face, it if you built 100,000 fuel cells today, it would take decades to sell the cars you put them in. Toyota is starting with a batch of 700, hyundai 1000.
     
  16. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Toshiba had them, but then lithium batteries got cheaper and smaller and they dropped fuel cells. I only saw them in Japan, and perhaps someone is still making them in Japan, I haven't looked lately.

    So we have these expensive toys to recharge our devices
    Brookstone brings Upp fuel-cell phone charger to US for $199 - CNET
     
  17. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Part of the challenge for FCVs will also be the fact that fuel cells, as they degrade, loose performance.
    With a BEV you loose range, but not performance.

    It will be interesting to hear how they are recieved by those that lease them.
    I'm a bit surprised we haven't heard more from the Hyundai FCV leasees. Haven't those been available since summer in CA?
     
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I doubt this is a long term problem, just a problem with these pre commercial vehicles that honda, toyota, and hyundai are doing this test roll out with.

    Fuel cell power is not quickly changable, so peak power will only be used for short bursts, likely less than 10 seconds. Lithium batteries can compensate by going above stated peak for these time periods. BMW is playing with this beyond healthy peak right now. All you need to do is have a big enough battery buffer. My guess is if a mirai 114 kw drops to 100 kw, you simply need that 21 kw battery to go to 35 kw during heavy accelearion. That is likely a beefer lithium battery instead of the nimh they have in these hand built "production" models but not really much of a technical challenge, if steady state stays bellow 70kw, that fuel cell will have plenty of juice to recharge the battery. Toyota may already be using a viable battery in their alpha (lithium not sold in US).
     
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  19. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    And people moaned on here about a perceived loss of performance in Power mode after the inverter recall.

    How do the manufacturers of fuel cells get round this? Do they start with a 200 bhp cell but artificially restrict it to 130 bhp to get a more stable performance over the longer period?

    And regarding cost, maybe they need a giga factory? :sneaky:
     
  20. vskid3

    vskid3 Active Member

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    That'll probably be how. BEV's are likely in the same boat, but with how much battery it takes to give acceptable range, there's plenty of buffer for the discharge rate.