September 2014 Dashboard Report

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Oct 1, 2014.

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  1. inferno

    inferno Senior Member

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    My dealership said that Toyota stopped shipping Plugins since summer. One manager thought that it was the end of the PiP line that there would be no more because Toyota did in fact stop producing them. Little do they know though PiPs continue into 2015...

    I don't know dealerships are confusing. Great to hear many of them saw the 4th gen though. I wonder if Toyota is confused about their strategy.
     
    #21 inferno, Oct 2, 2014
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  2. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    They sold out the 2014s they had 2015s liftbacks that didn't sell, it just means they had less discounting. There was short stock in the plug-ins not the liftbacks. They are advertising a lot more, or I am seeing it because they are advertising during football games. I don't think the new advertising is effective though.
    With Sales Sputtering, Toyota Seeks Broader Appeal For Prius Line - Forbes
     
    #22 austingreen, Oct 2, 2014
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    September 2014 Dashboard - HybridCars.com
    Hybrid vehicles declined from a strong result in August and in fact achieved the lowest sales volume since February of this year. As usual, hybrid volumes are largely determined by the fate of the Prius and other Toyota (and Lexus) products, most of which are down. However, compared to year-ago, the Prius C, Prius V, Avalon, and Lexus CT performed well. Ford’s hybrids, the Fusion, C-Max and MKZ also declined from strong results in August and with the exception of the MKZ from year-ago levels.​
     
    #23 austingreen, Oct 2, 2014
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  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Thank you! I got busy today and missed when it was posted. Here is the table:
    model Sep_14 Aug_14 Jul_14 Jun_14
    1 Toyota Prius Liftback 7986 14724 12866 11277
    2 Toyota Prius C 3192 4389 3700 3291
    3 Nissan Leaf 2881 3186 3019 2347
    4 Toyota Prius V 2746 3506 2738 2510
    5 Jetta Diesel 2586 3988 3721 3286
    6 Sonata 2134 1910 2800 1523
    7 Toyota Camry Hybrid 1986 4320 4609 3874
    8 Ford Fusion Hybrid 1972 2943 2851 3016
    9 Passat Diesel 1720 2767 2442 2316
    10 Avalon Hybrid 1437 2049 1767 1437
    11 Chevrolet Volt 1394 2511 2020 1777
    12 Tesla Model S* 1300 1200 1400 1400
    13 ES Hybrid 1128 1628 1358 1102
    14 Ford C-Max Hybrid 1109 2451 2163 1952
    15 Accord Hybrid 1095 1175 1362 1135
    16 Lexus CT200h 1078 2191 1979 1521
    17 i3* 1022 1025 363 358
    18 Kia Optima Hybrid 1003 1318 1155 1006
    19 Golf Diesel 789 643 222 237
    20 RX 400 / 450 h 695 1090 914 872
    21 Ford C-Max Energi 677 1050 831 988
    22 MKZ 645 758 638 787
    23 Fusion Energi 640 1222 1226 1939
    24 Lacrosse Hybrid 587 545 462 610
    25 XV Crosstrek Hybrid 571 747 746 788
    26 BMW X5 Diesel 496 459 244 539
    27 Q5 Diesel 452 508 454 627
    28 Chevrolet Cruze Diesel 430 732 595 468
    29 Honda Civic Hybrid 360 503 409 410
    30 Toyota Prius Plug In 353 818 1371 1571
    31 Touareg Diesel 353 383 318 277
    32 GL-Class Diesel 344 402 261 276
    33 Highlander Hybrid 303 288 214 280
    34 Q50 Hybrid 274 266 246 242
    35 Q7 Diesel 269 346 349 450
    36 Honda CR-Z 248 342 356 302
    37 Honda Insight 240 290 291 333
    38 GLK Class Diesel 222 223 343 340
    39 X3 Diesel 191 163 155 221
    40 forTwo EV 182 208 298 278
    41 Ford Focus EV 176 264 198 197
    42 Pathfinder Hybrid* 160 237 221 191
    43 A6 Diesel 138 217 342 398
    44 500E 137 166 119 166
    45 Grand Cherokee Diesel 129 187 152 151
    46 E-Class Diesel 126 170 227 236
    47 Toyota RAV4 EV 125 228 68 91
    48 3-Series Diesel 122 134 1705 972
    49 Cayenne Diesel 115 173 159 184
    50 Volkswagen Jetta Hybrid 114 151 156 206
    51 ELR 111 196 188 97
    52 QX60 Hybrid* 109 130 112 108
    53 Beetle Diesel 105 199 178 167
    54 Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid 82 68 63 111
    55 A7 Diesel 64 82 95 89
    56 ML Class Diesel 60 181 283 357
    57 Spark 51 80 128 85
    58 5-Series Diesel 44 71 980 1058
    59 Accord Plug In 42 46 41 28
    60 A8 Diesel 37 50 54 105
    61 Impala Hybrid 35 63 43 63
    62 Honda Civic 33 46 67 94
    63 Regal Hybrid 32 47 34 75
    64 Fit EV 29 55 42 38
    65 ActiveHybrid 3 (335ih) 23 9 11 13
    66 Audi Q5 Hybrid 19 31 22 19
    67 ILX Hybrid 15 24 35 44
    68 i 15 20 17 22
    69 Cayenne Hybrid 13 14 159 72
    70 E400H 12 7 5 13
    71 Malibu Hybrid 10 21 30 62
    72 7-Series ActiveHybrid 6 3 1 6
    73 Lexus GS 450h 3 13 8 15
    74 ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih) 3 4 4 18
    75 S-Class Diesel 2 3 4 5
    76 Cadillac Escalade Hybrid 1 6 2 8
    77 Volkswagen Touareg Hybrid 1 4 2 6
    78 GMC Yukon Hybrid 1 2 3
    Source: Jeff Cobb's Hybrid Market Dashboard | HybridCars.comHybridCars.com (well worth reading!)

    • Sonata kept it from being a total blow-out. (Wth!)

    Graphs will follow (once the coffee kicks in.) Here are the first set:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Bob Wilson
     
    #24 bwilson4web, Oct 2, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2014
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  5. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    For example, in about August, Toyota Sunnyvale had big discounts on Prius liftback, factory cash back, etc...
    Those discounts are much less now. That's likely a big reason why sales are down.

    But, other makes / models are cruising. Honda sold over 32,000 Accords in Sept. More than camry, but 2015 revised Camry will land in a week or so.

    Prius offers big MPGs, but a bit small and low power for the price. Many people just don't like the looks of Prius liftback and the interior may be too weird and futuristic. Even the Prius Five mostly feels like c#$p to sit in, to me anyway. but, I'm picky. Camry feels better, but that Cadillac XTS the other day was off the charts comfortable!
     
    #25 cycledrum, Oct 3, 2014
  6. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    I know why Camry Hybrid sales were so low in Sept: 2014.5's are almost all sold out. 2015 Camry Hybrid should be in stock fairly soon. Wow, PiP fell off a cliff.
     
    #26 cycledrum, Oct 3, 2014
  7. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    No supply on PiP...could be a good PiP year end if the 2015 starts being available
     
    #27 wjtracy, Oct 3, 2014
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    When possible, I prefer to read something closer to the original speaker's words:
    September 2014 Sales Conference Notes | Corporate

    Bob Wilson
     
    #28 bwilson4web, Oct 3, 2014
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  9. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    #29 Sergiospl, Oct 7, 2014
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I had some time today and wanted to look at a longer time frame:
    [​IMG]
    We are still three months away from getting two full years of data but my eyes see a pattern associated with the USA model-year change that happens in September:
    • Sept-Jan - New models shows up and prices get a bump and unless there is a significant improvement, sales are slow.
    • Jan-May - Sales pickup as tax returns show up and the winter "aging" sends the older cars into trade-in.
    • May -Sept - Peak sales as deals to clear out the 'old' inventory leads to better prices.
    One lesson learned, buy a new car in August, at the end of the model year. But this pattern shows up most in the hatchback sales.

    [​IMG]
    These are the lower volume, hybrids. You can see in the beginning, there was a distinct gap. But the most recent data does not show this gap. It appears quality, non-Toyota hybrids have arrived and are filling the gap. Still, the lower hybrid market is still numbers dominated by Toyota hybrids.

    [​IMG]
    Some hybrid skeptics have suggested the decrease in hybrid (aka., hatchback) sales is due to conquest EV sales. We know there have been some the numbers and limited sales area says,'In your dreams.' BTW, the PIP was not in this graph because I used the September 2014 sales order and the PiP was under represented. Still, this is a healthy, growing market.

    [​IMG]
    Now this last chart shows diesel sales, not counting the pickup and truck market. Now the Golf just went through a module upgrade and the up-tick in sales is well deserved based on the specs. It is also a VW dominated market.

    You may see other patterns in the data. Humans are notorious for seeing patterns in random data . . . in casinos.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #30 bwilson4web, Oct 18, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2014
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    There is much seasonality in autos, and you might analyse the entire light vehicle market to get monthly corrections. The hybrid seasonality is a little different as hybrids are so dominated by toyota, a toyota seasonality model might help.

    Here are the federal researves seasonality factors
    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
    It doesn't have a toyota factor, but hybrids might be best modeled using the foreign autos column. Projections go out to 2016.

    I would expect the trend to accelerate but the cycle time is multi year.

    IMHO an effective model may look at electrified (hv, phev, bev) versus non electrified. There was strong growth in 2012 and 2013 and a small decrease is projected in 2014, but I would expect this growth to return in 2015.

    If we only look at the hv part of the market, some parts are going plug-in, and analysts expect plug-in growth to far exceed hybrid growth. 2014 is definietly a down year for hybrids, and the gen 4 prius delayed until end of 2015, and low gas prices almost assure that 2015 will be a under performing year also. That may change drastically in 2016 if the new prius is a hit or if gas prices rise again. Toyota and ford could stimulate the market by dropping hybrid prices next year, and grow the market despite lack of new designs and moderate gas prices. It is hard to tell what the automakers will do.
     
    #31 austingreen, Oct 19, 2014
  12. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Ambiguous statements like that shouldn't be spread. It literally tells us nothing. The complete absence of detail gives reason for question.

    "Growth" could mean anything. No actual quantity estimate or even a percent is a red flag. The same goes for "far" being meaningless.

    "Hybrid" doesn't really mean anything anymore either. What is Prius PHV counted as? Fusion Energi? Volt? What about vehicles with start-stop? What about tiny assist motors?

    And of course, who the heck are the so-called "analysts" saying that? Are they part of the auto industry? Someone supporting EVs? Someone pushing fossil fuels?

    We learned long ago not to take statements at face-value. That one is an excellent reason why.
     
    #32 john1701a, Oct 19, 2014
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I wish I could be more bullish about hybrids but today I saw $2.84 and we've not yet reached Thanksgiving.

    Given the shale-oil production rates, there is a high probability the USA will see a significant, sustained reduction in gasoline prices. If we don't see $3/gal next year, new hybrids and other fuel efficient cars in the USA market will all but disappear.

    However, fuel efficient cars will be strong and grow stronger in the rest of the world . . . until they start serious fracking. How long this next oil-boom lasts, well that will be an open question.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #33 bwilson4web, Oct 19, 2014
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  14. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    lolz

    It is meaningful to most, but probably not to you. I am not writing a thesis with evidence. How is this. This year plug-ins look like that will grow at more than 25%, hybrids unless there is a miricle will contract. There are a dozen analyst that look at the market, and they all have plug-ins growing, those that have hybrid market growing, have the rate bellow plug-ins. Read the analyst reports yourself. I am sure you won't believe any summary I give you.

    Growth for plug-ins mean growth of car market share. It is pretty straightforward. Hybrid means hybrid, and clearly not phev. you can add start-stop if you like but I was not, that is called start stop.

    stock analyst, wall street and nikkei mainly, plus market research companies. you decide if they are pushing fossil fuel, but that would not be me. I am typing in english it shouldn't be this hard.

    You never tell me who the we are. If you have something to add please add it. Do you have some analysis for plug-ins and growth that are different, or are you just here to spread uncertainty and doubt with word games.
     
    #34 austingreen, Oct 19, 2014
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  15. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Growth of 25% YOY for one year in plug-ins fades into the statistical noise.
    If 100 cars sold a month becomes 125 cars a month, who cares ?

    If Prius world-wide sales contract from 50,000 a month down to 45,000, they still have a profitable business that will hopefully tide them over the current business cycle and oil boomlet, or until the world wakes up and taxes carbon.
     
    #35 SageBrush, Oct 19, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2014
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Looking at the summary:
    Type number take-rate
    1 Hybrid 31385 2.53%
    2 Battery EV 3983 0.48%
    3 Plug-In Hybrid 3357 0.27%
    4 CNG 33 0.00%
    5 Diesel 8947 0.72%

    The good news, 3.28%, hybrids, plug-in, and EVs, not including diesels and CNG. The bad news, this remains fairly flat.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #36 bwilson4web, Oct 20, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2014
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  17. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Gas prices continuing to fall. Whatchya going to do for your Prius , Toyota?
     
    #37 cycledrum, Oct 20, 2014
  18. PriusC_Commuter

    PriusC_Commuter Active Member

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    That's a really good question. They scaled back their incentives a bit, possibly due to 2015s arriving on the lots, but it's still the same car. With gas prices this low I think Prius sales are really going to hurt.
     
    #38 PriusC_Commuter, Oct 20, 2014
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Just a couple of data points:
    • 18,283 hybrids sold - November 2006 (there were no plug-ins or EVs)
    • 31,385 hybrids sold - September 2014
    Gas prices can (and will) soften but the way-back machine indicates there is a hard-core of car buyers who will continue to be in the market. The range is likely to be 2-3% and now we have plug-in options that used to be only 'home made.'

    Yes, I'm disappointed hybrids are not 5% of the new car market . . . . 5 years ago. But then I've long since given up expecting sense and sensibility from others.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #39 bwilson4web, Oct 21, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2014
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  20. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    I would not buy another conventional car if I bought a new car. If I did buy a conventional car, I'd just call it an old-fashioned car.

    The marketing hype of conventional cars is ridiculous. Ford says on TV the Focus gets 'up to' 40 MPG. We know that's some eco maodel that most don't buy and that Focus' are lucky to get 30 or 32 MPG at the pump.

    I'm not saying I'd buy another Prius though.
     
    #40 cycledrum, Oct 22, 2014
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