Toyota Shows Distain: Even for their Own RAV4-EV

CA does a good job with legislation specifically aimed at the core problem. Requiring non-polluting vehicles is the right way to reduce vehicle pollution. That actually seems to be working. The only problem is the marketplace has figured out the best answer...and it is not fuel cells. The only way to support inferior solutions is to write legislation specifically supporting those inferior solutions. So while many vehicle makers are lobbying for fuel cell handouts, they (successfully!!) build EVs to solve the vehicle pollution problem in the meantime. The only way to replace EVs is for CA (and other states) to remove their non-polluting vehicle legislation and replace it with legislation micromanaging vehicle technology.

 

Huh? Boston to NYC would be easy.
Boston, MA
East Greenwich, RI: +64 miles
Milford, CT: +97 miles
Darien, CT: +33 miles
Manhattan, NYC: +38 miles

Lots of choices on the way.

It's Boston to Maine that would be a struggle right now but Tesla indicates there should be Superchargers by the end of the year in Portsmouth/Kittery, South Portland and Bangor. People have also suggested another Supercharger on US1 so people heading to Bar Harbor aren't stuck on I95 until Bangor..

 

You know, Toyota may have something. According to Chrysler, plug-ins are overblown.
Chrysler: Mild Hybrids Coming, Says Electric Cars 'Overblown By Media'

 

Toyota carefully chose the tiny battery for the PiP to be cost effective. Surprisingly, we get over 50% of our driving done on electric. If I had double the battery size, I think that percentage would only go up to 60 or 65%. So now we average nearly 100 mpg with that car, compared to 50 mpg with the regular Prius. Now it is a case of diminishing returns. Getting 200 mpg with a larger battery saves less gas than is saved in going from 50 mpg to 100 mpg.

Nevertheless, I hope Toyota isn't neglecting the next gen PiP by getting distracted with the fuel cells. I think I'd want 3x or 4x the range of the next PiP to get really excited about it, because then I could get in the 80-90% electric driving range. But again, I wouldn't be saving that many gallons over what we use today. I'm concerned we haven't heard more of the plans for the next gen PiP which you'd think would be available in about a year.

In going on a long trip, I'd hate to drive 30 mins out of my way to get to a charging station where I'd have to wait another 30 mins to recharge. Doing that every 3 hrs would be a pain and take the fun out of the trip.

 

Quite so, although you are simply describing a case where you are well matched to the current Prius.

This is why I find the studies of 'average' drives to be so useless. Rational people match battery capacity to their circumstances.

 

The 'average' drives has the purpose of optimizing fuel savings when you have to pick only one battery size for your entire customer base. Yes, there will be people who could benefit from a larger battery, but then it would be overkill for the majority of the users. So when you are only offering one choice, average does have its place.

It would be nice if you could pull into a filling station, tell them you are going on a long trip and slide a fully charged 80kW-hr battery pack onto your car - just like you'd fill up with gas for a long trip. However, I don't think exchangeable batteries are practical. So we are somewhat stuck driving around with a gigantic battery that we don't need most of the time. Only when batteries become dirt cheap and not too heavy will this become a moot point.

 

That doesn't make much sense unless your driving pattern is truely bizarre, but lets not analyze how many more miles would be electric with a bigger battery, you are happy with you plug in car. In my mind that's a good thing, and you are using a lot less oil per mile than even a prius liftback.

I would think toyota would improve their plug-in instead of doing this awful advertising against all plug ins.

Sure.

I hope so too. I especially don't like the fact they keep on saying the batteries are not ready. The battery does fine in the prius phv. The next gen should have a even better battery. Its a whole different pr campaign to say we believe in phevs

Yep, for many people a phev is a better choice than a bev, and either is a much better choice than a fuel cell vehicle. I mean how many miles out of your way do you have to drive to find a hydrogen station.

Now for me in the last 6 months I have only driven over 100 miles in a day once, last sunday, to an obstacle course race. PHEV would have worked fine, a 60 kwh tesla would have worked fine (could have even recharged free on the way home at the supercharger station, not out of the way, and many places for lunch nearby). Leaf or rav4 ev (not sold in texas) wouldn't have worked, but ofcourse we could have taken my gf car

I think its a shame toyota doesn't promote what it has in phevs and rav4 ev, instead of these false shots at all plug-ins. I like you hope they improve the prius phv (also not available in texas) and roll it out nation wide on the next generation. Toyota had a big lead to build plug in cars, and now is number 3 world wide (3 in Japan), (5 in the US). This Lexus advertising illustrates the bad thinking that moves you from number 1 potential to number 3.

 

You probably mean median, and it appeared from the collateral material Toyota chose the median for japan using Japanese testing. The car is selling much better in the US than Japan where its only selling at about 10% of levels Toyota predicted. It may make sense to look at the 80th percentile driver in california
Californians Buy Nissan LEAF to be Green, Volt to Save Money, Prius PHEV To Get HOV-Access, Study Finds - Transport Evolved Electric Car News

Tesla is working on a one use then recycled air battery that could be changed. Current best choice is aluminum air. These have high energy density, but must be recycled instead of charged. It would probably be an oil change place as its more complicated than a charge. You get 1000 miles on a reasonably sized . You exchange it with a new one, and get charged for recycling and installation.

 

$650/kw is not ready.

 

It is interesting that everyone wants 2.5x to 4x the range that they have.

The Prius can substitute for the "one and only" family car due to its range and cargo room. Volt is nice, but tiny. I could never go on a camping trip with the volt, but the prius packs it all in just fine. The Leaf is even less versatile as you'd get stuck out in the woods somewhere without an outlet.

I'm thinking that range anxiety goes away somewhere near the 500 mile/charge range. If you drove for 8 hrs at 60 mph and then charged at your hotel, one might be able to live with that - more realistically would be to drive at 75 for 8 hours thus requiring 600 mile range. But if one could charge during a 45 min lunch and get 200 more miles back, then perhaps a 400 mile range would do it.

 

Considering not many cars can go 500 miles without stopping to refuel, I think that's an unnecessary (and for the short term unrealistic) goal.

 

...back in the good old days (circa 1950's) vehicles were "sized" for roughly 400-miles range: 50 MPH and 8 hours of driving.

 

But how many hotels today have charging stations or would even let you plug an extension cord into their outlet. Oh the liability.

Probably 80% of the time I leave the house and 200 mile range would work even in winter. But on occasion, I want to go in the same car from NC to DC or up to PA or down to the coast. I may have just a driver or up to 4 passengers. And luggage. Maybe 4-6 suitcases. Maybe 6 boxes of stuff.

With a gas powered vehicle (even a hybrid) I have no range anxiety as there is a 150 mile window when I can find gas, just pick a time that matches the passengers' bladder needs. And I'm on my way with 500 miles of fuel once those needs are satisfied. No searching for a special station, just grab the nearest well priced one. When I get to my hotel, I'm not asking for any special car position, not waiting, not having to get up in the middle of the night because it is someone else's turn.

It isn't just range, it is convenience.

 

I'll agree it is not a realistic goal for the near future, but it is an ultimate goal such that people don't think twice about being able to make the trip or not. For a gas car, 400 miles is reasonable as the next poster mentioned needing some room for error when needing to match bladder capacity with gas station availability. I'd throw in an extra 100 miles assuming it will never be as easy or convenient to charge up as it is to gas up.

 

I'm fearing that the 2nd gen PiP is going to be a yawner.

On the positive side, that would save me money as I'd keep my 2010 Prius and not spend more money upgrading.

 

Tesla did demonstrate such a system that could swap out the battery in 90 seconds. I believe they plan to offer it in some locations. The downside to it, along with a $80 fee, is that if you don't pick up your original pack, you will charged the difference in capacity of the old and new pack.

 

The real question is what the cost of the difference will be, as if it's cheap enough it might be worth it to get a newer battery.

 

Not everyone, but the average of the Leaf, Volt and PiP owners surveyed.
All of the cars mentioned, among others, can substitute for the one and only family car for some people.
Similarly, range anxiety disappears at different ranges for different people.

For some people, 74 miles eliminates range anxiety.
It isn't a one size fits all solution. That holds regarding number of passengers, range, amount of cargo space, cost, etc.

 

Why is that? With a tax credit of $417/kwh up to 16 kwh, the difference between 1kwh and 16kwh is only 15 x $650 -7500 = $2250 (even less in california with its additional credit). Of course you aren't going to add a plug to a 1kwh hybrid, so you need to upgrade the motors, inverters, and space to carry the batteries, and you want to make a profit, but really a i3 or spark ev is not constrained by battery costs. Now I don't think tesla is paying anywhere close to $650/kwh, and I'm sure they would be happy to sell battery packs to people at under $400/kwh after the giga factory is done (cost to them should be much less than $300/kwh). So if in 2020 after prices have come down to say $300/kwh and the tax credits are gone those extra 15kwh over a hybrid will cost $4500 or less to manufacture. An analysis of the spark ev already says it is cheaper in terms of tco over its gasoline version, and a much better car to drive on top of that.

This was done for the carb regulations of refill as fast as a fuel cell. CARB has changed the rules so Tesla won't get anymore credit for fast swap, and that means they probably won't build them. Without the ZEV credits it really doesn't make financial sense, as Tesla S owners don't sound like they are really concerned, it was all about the fuel cell rules.

The other option that we see patents filed for is a aluminum air battery. You buy it then recycle it. Say you can get 2000 miles on this other battery, it may be great as an extender for long trips. Alcoa is working on a recycling plan, as the batteries don't get charged they get recycled.

 

A "one-shot" battery...not good! Sounds like just another 'throw-away' product...I prefer things to have "useful" lives.

 

Tesla's patent uses the air battery as a range extender in place of an ICE or fuel cell. An actual car using it will likely have an EV range in the 100 to 200 mile range on regular rechargable batteries. Combine with the Supercharger network, the frequency of swapping out the air-metal battery will be low.