Is the plug in hybrid the end game vehicle-

New Mexico approved a tax credit for solar last week, prompting me to go through the figures again this morning. NM is the land of sun, btw. Well, other than AZ

An installed 4 kW array is about $40K, and will make about 500 kWh monthly.

At current local rates, that saves $500 annualy.
Optimistically, 50% of the array can be offset by tax credits, so it will cost $20,000

IMO, lousy deal for me. I think money spent on conservation (particularly in my 1100 kwH/month hog of a house) will be a much smarter move.

 

Well Peak oil will happen. It's just a matter of when. There's a lot of debate about that but even the conservative estimates put it at around 2047. I'm sure Exxon would beg to differ but they have an avested interest in claiming peak oil is a myth so I wouldn't take their word for it.

I think cheap renewables will cause a paradigm (pronounced para-dig-um) shift in the way people view energy. The nature outcome of this will be a sense of ownership of energy by joe six pack. I think people have a more rental mindset right now. As people can produce what they need themselves they'll begin selling energy and naturally using it to power vehicles. Probably the early stages of this will see the PHEV as the vehicle of choice as gas is still somewhat cheap and renewables are too expensive to "go hog wild" without heavy subsidies. As battery/ultracap technologies improve and the prices come down I think that EVs will eclipse the PHEV.

 

hmmm.....im gonna figure out how any KW we use each month, and can someone tell me how big of a system we'll need, btw i live in houston texas......

 

Off-topic for the thread and forum, but perhaps of general interest. In any case, I'm glad you asked. Start with a solar energy potential map, such as:

http://www.i4at.org/surv/solmap.htm

Then google up some solar panel suppliers and collect data on panel prices and efficiency %. Then you'll have an idea of the panel cost vs. average monthly kwh production.

Then see what governmental incentives are available for you, at:

http://www.dsireusa.org/library/includes/m...geID=1&State=TX

Refine your goals a bit. Do you want a small grid-tied system that will just shave off the cost of summer electric air conditioning peaks, a larger one that will spin your electric meter backwards on all sunny days, or one that will work "stand-alone" all the time even after 10 cloudy days? The last will be the largest, and include a substantial cost (dollar and maintenance) in storage batteries.

To help refine your goals, read through the archives at:

http://www.homepower.com/

Or better yet, subscribe to their magazine. They're nice people. There you will find much information about inverters, which are a necessary component of converting the solar panels' low-voltage DC to the AC your house runs on. If there are big trees on the south side of your house, you will need to plan around them.

Now you are very well-prepared to have a sit-down with some local solar energy contractors. In fact you will be so well-prepared compared to people who usually come through the door, they will say "hey these Prius folks are awful smart". It's likely that they will further improve your plan based on their local experiences, even if you decide to do some or most of the work yourself.

DAS

 

Hmmm. Well, no. We can certainly do better than $40k for a 4kW system!

There are few investments that will beat solar. The return is higher than the stock market has been historically, yet folks keep investing there and don't get the planet-saving benefits! It isn't as simple as you've noted here. Yes it is expensive. And yes it is worth it. You'll certainly get a lot more out of $20k invested in PV than you do in any automobile.

 

No... or at least I sure hope not! We aren't setting our goals high enough. Why do we want to drag around gasoline and piston engines when we don't have to? At this stage of the game we're doing it for exactly two reasons that I know of.
1. Gas is cheap
2. Gas gives us the warm-fuzzies, and EVs (or anything beyond the status quo) scares the snot out of us.

This resistant Prius driver hopes and even expects that we'll eventually pull our collective heads out of our butts and see the light. We can drive *without* gas. Without ANY liquid fuel. Will we get there in the next century? Why not? We were already there in the LAST century!

 

End Game no it is a bridge. We need something renewable and not carbon. After that we should start pumping vegetable oil back into the ground.

 

I agree with both Darell and hdrygas. But who knows what the future holds? Past predictions have been far from the mark. Let's just hope that cooler heads prevail.

 

i think the plug in hybrid will be the end game, but it will by hybridized by being part solar, part grid. all electric.

we are seeing innovation in battery technology at a breakneck pace, i think the same will be seen in solar cell technology too. if enough money is put into it, it will happen.

i envision super efficient solar cells that take the place of parking meters. pull up, scan card, plug in.

it doesnt happen now because solar cells are not efficient enough. but as they get better and they can dump charges at 5 kw a pop for a fee, when it becomes profitable, it will flourish. (oil companies having inside information of when the price of oil will make this technology cheaper will probably control this business too) keep an eye out for the full service induction charging stations charging a few more cents per kw for those too lazy to get out and plug in

big meters mounted on the top of each charging station will advertise the amount of charge available, and it will be the dog eat dog competition with the Priuses looking for 5 kw to tide them over until they get home verses the macho 4 by 4's that need 25 kw just to be able to squeal rubber around the block one more time.

it will be the same old story... towards the end of the week, it will be tougher and tougher finding a station with a decent charge to give (all of them will have enough storage for 2-3 days of full sun) while every monday morning every station downtown will be near full.

then we once again we will have Prius-envy...

 

I took the $/watt cost from the New Mexico Solar Association's FAQ in pdf form.
I'd love leads to cheaper systems, though.

 

No doubt. But we have no need to burn it in a piston engine that throws a good 75% of it away. It is a valuable resource that we should be treating like gold. Instead, we are treating it like it "grows on trees." We need that cheap energy to help built up our alternatives.

I agree more with the second sentence than the first.

I don't particularly "want" it to be the end game. I just see that as the logical conclusion - and I'd like to be there sooner than later.

Lost me here. When gas is 50c cheaper at one station than another, a LINE forms. People are willing to sit and waste their time to save a couple of bucks. With gas at just $5/gallon, and you can refuel your BEV at an equivalent 50c/gallon (or free from the solar panels you installed a while back).... you don't think that's enough incentive - regardless of anybody wanting to do right by the environment? Fill up your Prius for $50, or fill up your 300-mile BEV for $5? Now take gas up to $20 and see what happens. I don't follow the reason why it'll take gas at $30/gallon. There's just no way. Too many benefits of EVs over gas car already at $2.50/gallon. Every penny just adds one more reason.

I aparently hold far more hope for the future, and have more optimism for the intelligence of mankind. Honestly, I cannot forsee continuing to produce gasoline ICE for anywhere near 100 more years. I don't think it will even be possible to be that stuck in the mud. It still amazes me that we could fly to the moon on 60's technology, and that we're STILL burning gasoline in ICE's in 2006. By choice! So I guess anything can happen...

It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil. We'll easily use the next trillion in 30.

 

And before you know it, they'll start selling "high performance" electricity and electricity with detergent additives to keep your motor windings clean. Then the government will get into the game and mandate the sale of special "Winter Electrons" between the months of November and March in northern states.

 

I think everyone grossly underestimates the oil companies. These companies know better than any one else what the end game looks like and I'm sure are carefully planning their business strategies accordingly. I know that Exxon has been researching alternative energies for years. They have in their best interest the development of these alternatives to stay competitive. Take BP solar panels as an example. They are grooming themselves as energy companies, not just oil companies. I don't work for an oil company or anything, but I just think that they can't be just viewed as the enemies - we may find that they are part of the solutions as well. Hmmm...

 

Marlin - you have BRILLIANTLY summed up one of my pet reasons for the push FOR H2 cars, and the push AWAY from BEVs.

You can brand your hydrogen (or any "fuel") just like gasoline. You can make it more "pure" or make it "better" for the propulsion system. Today's oil companies will control the supply and distribution.

You can NOT do this for electricity. electrons are electrons. They don't care how they're made, or where they go. Nobody will own a better brand of electricity, and *gasp* everybody can make it themselves without even getting their hands dirty. You never have to worry about avoiding the off-brand filling stations because of fear of "bad fuel." or "water in the tank."

You NAILED this one, my friend.

 

Actually, when you look at inflation adjusted prices, oil peaked at $89 a barrel in 1980. At around $60 a barrel today, we have a ways to go before we set price records.

Also, oil in 1998 was cheaper than it's ever been since 1946 when viewed as inflation adjusted prices.

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflati...rices_Table.asp

 

Actually, I think that in the long term, hydrogen will much less monopoly prone than the oil industry. Oil production requires owning specific parcels of land containing petroleum reserves. Once you own them, you can set the prices however you choose, since no one else can produce oil without owning petroleum reserves. (ie. OPEC)

In the long term, when hydrogen is produced by means other than steam reforming of natural gas, then there are no barriers to entering the hydrogen market. You don't need to own a particular parcel of land that is in short supply in order to produce hydrogen. All you need is some kind of energy source, and water.

And if you are so concerned about monopolies, why do you love electric companies so much. They are classic monopolies.