Those 2 - 4 million jobless people should be out there growing silicon, assembling solar panels, and nailing 'em onto roofs. . _H*
malorn, don't be defensive and all, I am trying to help you here. Perhaps these would bring more traffic to your showrooms? [Broken External Image]:http://members.cox.net/aye-aye/skirt1.jpg[Broken External Image]:http://members.cox.net/aye-aye/skirt3.jpg
I think you know as well as anyone that bankruptcy doesn't mean liquidation. GM would emerge smaller and more efficient. If you said in 1950 that US Steel would be barely a player in the world market in 2005, people would call you crazy. Business failures happen all the time...a diversified and advanced economy absorbs the shock. If GM folded, car prices increase due to less supply. Ford ramps up production to meet the shorfall, and hires ex-GM employess. Same with Chrysler, Toyota USA and Honda USA etc. Inflation goes up due to higher car prices, causing an increase in interest rates. More money flows into capital expenditures as there is more money in the banking system due to increased savings. Money flows in from overseas. Eventually, decreased spending due to inflation causes a lowering of prices in cars. Sales pick up, and eventually we back to our target nominal growth. Everyone forgets that GM ever existed...like Packard, Pierce Arrow, Plymouth, Oldsmobile. I majored in Economics before going into medicine but that was a long time ago, so forgive me if my Macroeconomic analysis is suspect. :mellow:
First of all your analysis is at least partially correct but the big variable that you are leaving out is the change in demand with GM or Ford closing up. Either one closing up would cause chaos in the economy in general probably resulting in a huge reduction in demand at least in the short term . US Steel fell apart over time. This would the largest and third largest automakers in the world throwing in the towel. Other than maybe Pittsburgh have nay of the old steel towns and their residents ever recovered form the blow?
If GM execs had any common sense they would have a much more diversified fleet of vehicles. They are still pushing SUV's & large gas guzzling trucks. If they were smart way back in 1974 they would have "gotten with the program." I have no sympathy for a co. that lacks common sense and lets greed dictate everything.
In my analysis :lol: only one fails, the other steps in to take up the slack. Just a question of who'll throw in the towel first.
which company just came out with the "biggest, badass truck on the market" to quote its chief North american executive?
You did not answer my question about demand. Remember the health of the economy, especially our current placstic/debt-filled economy, is mostly psychological. Why do you think i have been making some 'other' investments over the last few years.
Ahh, but sound economic policy deals with long term planning. I go into debt for $200,000 in 4 years to go to med school, but the long term payoff is the reward.
what about Walker1 comments about greed and such dictating everything at GM. Is is really any different at Toyota? or are they just much better at spinning?
How long do you think it would take for the economy to recover form a shock like that? Remember it took a world war to recover from the great depression.
I can believe that malorn believes that if GM goes under then it will be disaster for everyone because he is not only tied to them in heart and soul but financially. It would be a personal disaster for him and many of the people around him. I do not wish that upon him or anybody. But I think by having such close ties and so much personally riding on GM clouds his judgement. For example, when everyone had a good laugh about the "GM highest mpg" fact that he stated, I wasn't really sure where he got this information from and why he would trust it when it would seem like common knowledge that GM is not a market leader in terms of fuel efficiency. Then I thought, on some level his statement could be true depending upon how you define "vehicle segments." But this is potentially disingenious. Just like the article that had twisted the truth by averaging the reliability ratings of manufacturer brands to prove that domestic manufacturers make higher quality cars than asian manufacturers. At least in that situation the article was referenced so we could see through the BS for ourselves. I guess the point is, please, malorn, as much as possible show us the information sources that you base these statements on.
When trucks/suv's are broken out into categories GM leads in most of the categories. you will say that it is all bs, but what percentage of vehicles sold in this country are trucks and SUV's. By far the biggest segment in the Us is pickups. Do you know the epa defines it as one segment as far as gas mileage calcs. A four cylinder, five-speed is in the same category as a turbo-diesel that weigs 7,000 lbs and can haul 15000. A suburban is in the same category as a highlander.
Ask Walker1, not me. I don't doubt that Toyota is greedy, as is GM, GE, Boeing, Airbus, Northwest Airlines. They are in the business of making money. I fly Boeing jets despite the fact their airplanes firebombed Dresden. I'm not an "ethical" buyer, I buy the best I can afford.
