2015 PIP to will have a significantly longer range

For LI-systems there has been a lot of modeling. Its similar to NiMH in the sense there are regions with very minimal impact, but also different in that the efficts are stronger mixture of depth of discharge and temperature (and to a much lesser extend extreem C-rate for usage, which causes local temp extreems, but only important if C>10 which is rarely used in vehicle designs)

A good paper on the subject is
Marano, V.; Onori, S.; Guezennec, Y.; Rizzoni, G.; Madella, N.; , "Lithium-ion batteries life estimation for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference, 2009. VPPC '09. IEEE , vol., no., pp.536-543, 7-10 Sept. 2009
doi: 10.1109/VPPC.2009.5289803
URL: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=5289803&isnumber=5289440

The following graph from that paper shows the impact severity


You can see from this why the leaf issues in AZ may be a mixture of high-temps and large DOD (100% charging = 80% DOD) which is much higher impact than normal usage resulting by a factor or 2-3x accelerated aging. (Note the model does not include aging effects from sitting at 100% charge, with as I recall, other studies found accelerate aging at more than 10X "time")


In that paper they model for 10 years 100,000 miles and produced the following diagram of battery capacity


Showing a drop over 10 years/150,000 EV miles from 14kw total capacity to 12kw total capacity. In their moded car with about 7.8kw of usable capacity, that would be a EV range of about 25 miles, so 150,000 is about 6,000 cycles.
If the car is operated within its proper battery support range and has a TMS (which the Telsa does), than an EV with a bigger battery, which means even less DOD on daily usage, so do nearly as well.

 

Thanks DrI, cool information!

Mitch, thank you for the discussion, it has prompted me to do more digging of my own.
I found a bunch of information you may enjoy at
How to Prolong Lithium-based Batteries - Battery University
And
Battery Life and How To Improve It.

These are not specifics on car batteries, but give some helpful information on aging of batteries.

The storage temperature of the batteries does appear to play a sizable role.

 

I don't like to be the contrarian, but I think too many here are hanging their hat on the "greatness" of the Tesla. Sure, the concept is something to aspire to, but honestly, I don't think the company, nor the product will succeed. It's too ambitious, i.e. expensive, for the 99%. At the present level of technology, EVs are great for city/suburban driving with one or two passengers, within a 50 mile radius. And 90 percent of Americans stay within that radius on a daily basis. So, build a better car for that need. Why go crazy right now, when the long range technology and infrastructure is not quite there yet, nor proven, nor affordable. We should concentrate on proving that for the "daily grind" the smaller, affordable and more practical EVs are the way to go.

Build a better mousetrap and people will not necessarily beat a path to your door.

 

Of course it is. But why not make those who can afford it, pay for the development of the technology for the other 99%? Trying to start with the cheap commodity for everybody is the hard way. Name a single instance of that ever succeeding.

 

I agree telsa is not a mid-market consumer company, but that does not stop it from being a great car.
Other "great" cars like BMW M5, Porche, MB, Audi A7, are not low-cost either. Top end cars develop technology that work into lower-cost. Its the nature of high-end development processess.

Also Tesla is just one of many product concepts.. and for for some its ideal. The leaf is just too limited for me and many others.
The 90% solution is, for many people, no solution at all. The hassels of renting/borrowing a car for the other 10% is too much of a disencentive. And range anxiety is also a strong deterent. A leaf would cover 90%, a 40kw (130m) tesla would only be 94% (and dicy as the added 4% is almost all 120-130 mile airport runs) not work for me.. (the 60kw (200m) would be close enough for 99% of my trips, the 85kw/260signature would cover all but major road trips). But the price.. well that's another story.

Range/cost tradeoffs are why I have a Volt, and for many why PHEV will be better, for a while, than BEV.

 

The more market segments EVs are in the better, IMHO.
Why should all EV or PHEV makers make the same car?
As already stated, many high tech gizmos (safety, convenience, handling) get their start in higher end cars and then work their way into economy cars.
Also, how would you suggest a small start up car company produce a low cost/high volume (which is necessary to make a profit with economy cars) do that?

I think Tesla has done wonders and are bringing EV tech to the market as a whole. Lutz credited Tesla with changing the GM board of directors mind on the Volt. They helped change Toyota's mind about lithium batteries, and thus they are tentatively resurrecting the RAV4ev.

So yes, I think Tesla deserves a lot of credit, and I wish them the best of luck with their long term goal.

 

Read more:​

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http://priuschat.com/threads/2015-pip-to-will-have-a-significantly-longer-range.111069/page-4#ixzz1yiv6Eu00​

As a mass market adoption query I'd agree with this in general for households with one car, but I think most actual purchases of *EV cars will occur in two car families where PHEV is split up into BEV and HEV.

 

Because basic EV transportation, which is here now, has not been adopted by the 99%.

 

For those for which it works a BEV + Prius is a very good mix. So I agree for some families, but I expect the "second car" in most two car families will be CUV,SUV,Truck or Minivan. Thus until there are good BEV or HEV options.. it may be PHEV + CUV or PHEV+Truck mix will be the more common occurrence where the second, and more gas guzzling, vehicle has some other important features the family demands.

 

BMW, Audi, Porsche, etc. have other lines of cars on which to make money and keep the company afloat. Tesla doesn't. For less money than a Tesla, one could buy an iMiev or a LEAF, AND an efficient ICE vehicle for when you need it...for now...ask me again in ten years.

In my mind, right now, there is no such thing as an EV which will be the BEST vehicle in all situations...even the Tesla. One must have both, an EV and an ICE...or a Volt or PiP.

 

The HV market, which is has been here for a decade, is only at 2-3%.. and there are many HVs priced below the average new vehicle price. Cost is just one dimension of what is needed to get people to adopt.

And don't forget the Prius revolution did not start with a low-cost car, it was considered expensive when it was launched.
(e.g. see Trying to decide: Is Prius just too expensive? | PriusChat) and
ingentaconnect An environmental-economic evaluation of hybrid electric vehicles:...

Investing in the further is not cheap, or it would not be a long term investment just a short term business decision.

 

There's a lot of truth in what you say. I'd rather be a user in the middle than on the cutting edge.

 

Most believe Tesla will be bought out by a major auto manufacturer within a few years, and who knows, that might be Elon's ultimate goal.

Right now, Tesla has over 10,000 preorders for the Model S, the average price for the 300 mile version is in the 85-105K range, depending on options... They have nearly 1 Billion dollars worth of cars to deliver, already, to satisfy current reservations, thats not too bad for a 4 year old startup.

They are already working on their 4th generation model (the car comming out after the Model X), this is supposed to be a much lower cost EV, designed for the mass market, target price is rumored to be in the 30K range.. It's supposed to debut in the 2015 or so model.. That will be a car that will be truly impressive, and affordable... And could give the 2015MY PiP some real competition, Toyota will have to step up their game significantly.

 

I am not sure where your information is comming from and your math seems... Fuzzy.

No one is expecting the Tesla economy sedan in 2015. Elon's has stated 2016-2017 at the soonest.

Not all 10,000 reservations are for the 85kwh battery pack. Many are for the base model priced at $57k.
While I am a proponent of Tesla, let's not set our expectations too high by making calculations based on all 10,000 falling in that price range.

 

I completely disagree. Tesla, and to a lesser extent Chevy, are following the standard technology path.

When a technology (in this case batteries) is expensive the mass market can't afford it. So, you're left with more affluent buyers and some enthusiasts. You can sell bare bones to a few less affluent enthusiasts but to get the affluent buyers you have to produce something special. That's why Tesla has 10,000 people who put down a $5,000 deposit for the model S.

You could see this trend with HDTVs or larger monitors. Initial models were extremely expensive but they were very high quality and absolutely loaded up with interfaces. As the price of the technology came down you then began to see more bare-bones versions for the aspirational enthusiast. Ultimately the price came down enough that there are now options to meet all segments. (And if you want to buy a new CRT monitor it will probably be expensive because it now serves a specialist market.)

What I like about Tesla is that despite all the outspoken ambitions, their approach is steeped in business reality.
- They aren't building PHEVs so there are no engines that would increase dependency, complexity and regulatory hurdles.
- They use induction motors so avoid the rare earth supply problems.
- They use commodity cells, which have a relatively low cost, abundant supply and a relatively rapid rate of improvement with investment and use that doesn't depend on the automotive industry.
- They build to order so they won't be caught out by inventory problems.
- They're quietly trying to avoid having dealerships so they don't lose revenue. It's a bit dangerous, but I think they're gambling on NADA not wanting to put their cartel at risk with media attention in a court case.
- They were able to secure a manufacturing plant in NUMMI (although you could argue it's a hidden investment by Toyota) and other manufacturing machinery at a low price.
- They try to do as much in house as possible, both lowering costs and building IP.
- Every car they sell gives them additional ZEV credits they can sell to other manufacturers.
- They will offer different battery pack sizes, starting with the high-revenue range, so they will also be able to get the aspirational buyers.
- Their cars provide relatively high range, reducing the impact of one of the two biggest issues BEVs face.

Ultimately, they will depend on continued improvements in battery technology that will lower prices so they can produce in higher volume. As skeptics have noted, range anxiety is the enemy of BEV cost-effectiveness, so if Tesla manages to make the next step I'd still expect them to offer a choice of battery pack sizes. I also think that because they don't have the potential or desire to up-sell to larger vehicles they'd be more willing to integrate rental into their business model.

 

2012 Shareholder Meeting | Tesla Motors

28 minutes in, it's labeled future, but the last date shown is 2014, so 2015 is "the future". They are now a public company, and they have to be very carefull with forward looking statements in public, but there is already a design team working on their 3rd generation lower cost EV, and of course it all depends on the success of the Model S and Model X as well.

There will not be very many base model $57,400 cars sold, most of them are going to be equipped with several options, the lowest price models out the door will be in the. $61-65K range, most likely. It's not an inexpensive car... Also those 40KW packs won't be able to use Teslas Supercharger network, so many will opt to move up to the 60KW pack (adds $10K) to the price.

You can build your own, see if you would not get ANY options:
Model S Design Studio | Tesla Motors

 

$20,000 for a prius 10 years (no, 12 years ago) is expensive? and today a $40,000 unproven plug-in is within reach of most? really? well, that means i need to ditch my 8 year old hybrid for something more affordable...

sticker price reality is needed with this technology. ugly truth and all.

 

mine was $30k after tax credit and i see one on line for $27,500.

 

Average car price in 2001was $

21,605 prius was ​

$ 20,855 as commonly configured, so just slightly below average (and well above the lowest priced cars). The technology was unproven and many (most?) said it was too expensive for what it saved.


Not sure if you are talking PIP prices or Volt. I'll answer the later since its the one near 40K. The 40,000 MSRP for a volt is factoring in the 7500 tax credit, so its 33K.. Average car price is now over $30,300 (not MSRP actual price paid). Lots of people are now getting volts for 2-3K below MSRP, so net cost is just a little above average (and well above the lowest price car). (My cost for nearly fully loaded Volt was 30K after fed and state credits). Yes that's a bit higher compared to the average than the prius was when it was introduced, but its not that much more expensive relative to the average.

If you have a functioning 8 year old prius, you don't need a new car. If you buy any new car, you are wasting money to get what you want, not what something you need.

Sticker price reality must reflect what the object costs balanced with its market value... Its not not just what you want to pay or what the "most" can pay. Selling new products at higher prices is just a natural part of doing business.

If you think its too expensive for the value it offers, and worried about the cost, then don't buy it.
But if you do TCO and keep it long enough, its actual a decent value at the current price point. That is the "sticker price reality", the people who know/crunch numbers already found a point where is makes financial sense for both the seller and the buyer.

If you want one, but cannot afford it (even if its a good value in terms of TCO), then you'll have to wait for prices to drop (not really likely to see a big drop, at least not until the tax credit goes away) or consider a used one. But saying people should lower prices because most people cannot afford it is only justified if the company is making excessive profits on that product, which is not likely case for an PHEV.

 

To your first point,so you are reading 'future' as 2015?
Please tell me just how, under that logic, you would list a topic that is in your plans, but don't have a set date for?
After all, aren't 2016 and 2017 also 'future' dates?

Just where do you gat all this definite information? For example, why do you state 'many will opt' to upgrade to the 60kwh pack based on the super charger? Some will, sure, but why do you think many will?
Have you taken a poll, or know of one? Or by many, do you mean more than 4 or 5?

Personally, the supercharge network plays zero role in my buying decision. But that is only one example, I have no idea if others feel he same.