One In 10 New Vehicles Will Be Diesel In 2015

Carnegie-Mellon is not known for their market research prowess, and looking at the other research team.

Yep, the same people that said the hummer is greener than a prius.

I would highly discount this report. American's favor gasoline cars, and preference will not switch quickly if at all. I would expect a boost to diesel sales as more models are available, but not a huge jump to 10%. VW the leading diesel car producer in america has anounced a jetta hybrid. Pick-up diesels have to compete with the ford f150 ecoboost for price and performance.

http://wardsauto.com/vehicles-amp-technology/bosch-forecasts-10-diesel-penetration-us-2015

3%-7% in 2015 would be my guess.

 

1/10 passengers cars in the US diesel by 2015? Not a chance in hell.

They think it will go from less than 1% to 10% in three years? I don't even need to look at their numbers to know they are wildly, massively, hilariously wrong.

 

Sorry C-M but this will never happen by 2015. That's 2-1/2 years from now. The production and planning for 2018 is being done now. The production and planning for 2015 was completed and done mid-last-decade.

There simply aren't enough diesel models available for production and sale in the US for this SOTP estimate to be anywhere close to accurate.

Two things I think might have been misstated or misunderstood byt the braniacs at C-M....

1. 2025 iso 2015
2. they were commenting on worldwide purchases including trucks, not only the US.

 

And then, there's this.
Diesel-Powered Chevy Cruze May Be a Tough Sell - NYTimes.com

 

Here in the US, diesel models are much more expensive than their gas counterparts. is this the case in Europe as well?

 

Appears to me that diesel parts maker Bosch is the one making the prediction, in part based on a report from CNW (LOL!), and a report of market preferences Bosch asked CM to compile.

This must be a *really* slow "news" day. Bosch wants people talking about diesels, and Bosch wants its stakeholders to have a warm fuzzy feeling for the future.

Who wudda thunk ?

 

"and a lower cost premium for diesel fuel against gasoline--unlike 2008, when gasoline soared to $4 but diesel passed $5 in some markets"

No justification for this is given. How do they reconcile this with 1.6 Million new cars (per year) increasing demand on diesel? It is possible to adjust the ratio of gasoline to diesel from crude, but the process takes quite a bit of time.

 

yes

But at $9 a gallon, the increased economy of diesel pays for itself in many cases - highway driving etc.

Also, in some Euro Countries diesel is much cheaper than petrol as it is classed as a commercial fuel. This makes diesel cars a no brainer in those places.

 

You need to keep in mind that the Carnegie Mellon report is from 2009 so it is 2.5 to 3 years old - obviously they made some assumptions that did not work out. It seems to me like this study was referenced only to play off the good name of Carnegie Mellon and there was a headline that worked in their favor.

If you look at the rest of the article the info comes from Bosch, a parts maker with a big financial reason to push diesel. The graph that shows that the diesel take rate is closing in on 1 in 3 for cars with a diesel option does not seem correct - just my gut says that the only one that comes close is the Jetta (and perhaps they exceed that mark). I also love how they list the BMW 335D - the D in the model # stands for diesel so the take rate on that is 100%.

Then you have CNR a research firm that to me does not have a whole lot of credibility - I believe that they were the folks that did the "dust to dust" report concluding that the life cycle cost for a Prius was greater than a Hummer that was pretty soundly debunked.

Seems to me that the conclusions in the article are just junk. I'll all for giving consumers options so lets hope that we do get cars like the Cruize with a diesel option (personally though I'm pulling for the wagon version - I think it looks really sharp), I just do not see them catching on in a huge way.

 

No way because we will all be driving nuclear produced hydrogen powered SUV's just like Bush said we would. Fuel cost, to cheap to meter. This is just stop gap tech until we have room temp super conducting cold fusion powered flying cars.

 

Costs at the pump only...
But repair and maintenance are usually much greater in diesels, and antipollution systems may require parts replacement (newer FAPs not)...

 

That is a key, the US has higher pollution standards. The systems required make diesels more expensive. Europe will require stronger more expensive polution control in the future. The trick will be to drive the hybrid premium down close to the diesel premium.

 

Justification is 10 gallons of Diesel per barrel vs. 20 gallons of gasoline yield per barrel. Hydrogen mediated cracking of barrel of oil can give 22 gallons max of gasoline. The remaining 22 gallons will be various oil products including Diesel of about 10 gallons. They can refine less and produce more Diesel but they would get fewer products out of the oil due to less refining.

As for the process taking more time, not really. It is the same hydrogen cracking process they simply adjust it to suit product mix.

Since the yield per barrel of oil for gasoline is twice that of Diesel, makes sense to stick with gasoline. In cars, Diesel vs. gas, gas is cleaner and the extra mpg of Diesel is not that great to justify the move to Diesels. Better gas hybrids. Best for US right now would be plug in gas hybrids that would push mpg to 100 mpg range in normal use.

 

The adjusting takes time, is what I meant. My loose understanding is that the at least a year lead time is needed to convert a refinery to a different ratio.

 

How is this justification for a claim that diesel won't rise in price along with gasoline?

 

We actually crack some diesel down to gasoline in this country. Hydrogen is mainly used to remove sulfer, when low sulfer diesel fuel became mandated in this country it required more hydrogen.

A refinery can make the ratio anything they want given enough time and money. Because US refineries can more economically make more diesel than gasoline, they produce this and export the excess diesel.

The big gap in prices came from huricane damaged refining capacity at the same time demand for low sulfur diesel came about. Those east coast refineries that are closing down are not worth any investment to make this happens. Similarly regulations in california make investment there unlikely. This means gulf coast refineries would change the mix, and many already have the equipement installed. But... they export diesel, if there is a spike in diesel demand in the US, then it may cause shortages in europe and south america pushing up the price. Its doubtful that the spread will get as high as 2008, but it is equally doubtful that us drivers will push for diesels quickly.

 

No time at all. The issue has to do with distrbution and storage of the products. Increase Diesel at the expense of gasoline and other products would require build up in Diesel storage, transport and distribution systems. Adding Diesel pumps at the gas stations for example.

Oh my...just like adding Hydrogen pumps and we saw the hysteria there.

Best to stick to gasoline with electric boost. It is the most efficient use of the oil and the goal is reduction in oil use and associated costs.

 

Nope. Hydrogen mediated refining of oil is the major process used at all refinieries. It is is why hydrogen is produced in such large quantities at oil refininiers.

Nope again. Nothing to do with the phony "refinery shortage" issue that the oil companies trot out when they raise gasoline prices in summer and fuel oil prices in winter to try and do more air and water pollution. Oil companies keep supply short and prices high. It's just business, Sonny, nothing personal.

 

low sulphur diesel should be more expensive to produce... in Europe, it is government lower taxes that keep the price in line with petrol, or slightly lower, even with us burning 45% of diesel (actually probably a lot more as 45% is ratio of cars sold while diesels probably make a lot more miles). We have lower grade diesel for trucks thats cheaper.

Diesel engines should also be $2k-$3k more expensive, depending on car.

I dont see 10%, probably ever. Not with emission laws getting tougher and tougher.
In Europe, even Euro6 emissions are not as strict as current EPA ones.