Will Nissan sell 20,000 leafs in 2012?

Not an expert on Leaf, but here's my take ....

No, not this year.

I was quite surprised last October to hop over to San Leandro Nissan while Honda was 'reprogramming' the ECU on my Accord Coupe...

they had 3 Leafs in stock with their small dealership, all available for sale. I didn't think that was a good sign ... aren't those things all supposed to be presold with buyers drooling to get one?

Then the price goes from $32.xk to over $35k for '12. iirc, they added heated seat, wheel and QC port to base model. check that.

BEV requires lot of commitment in money (pay full cost of car ,get tax credits later), must have L2 installed and place to use it at home. Must get to know charging opportunities out there. Some people have more time and money on hand to do these things. Most do not until it becomes more common, quite a few years from now.

I think PHV is a better step to plug-in vehicles, but obviously they are expensive. It's tough to justify a regular hybrid, but people like them. You don't come out ahead financially with PHV, but certain people will buy them because they like them.

 

no wonder dealers act like they do.

 

...so long as the EV tax credits stay in force, sounds like there could be a Leaf buying opportunity in 2013-2015 time frame if they are able to offer low costs due to all the federal assists.

 

Gee I duno ... who should I believe ... the digital trends blogger guy ... or Mark Perry, the director of product and advanced planning for Nissan Americas ... who, BTW at a recent Green Car Congress talk, used the following display presentation. See Pg 7 - bullet point II:

http://www.autonews.com/Assets/html/green-car-conference/_pdf/Mark-Perry-Presentation.pdf

You'd think after Nissan's very own mouthpiece guy said it enough times ... again & again ... the blogger guys would go a little easy on the "the 6.6kWh charger hasn't been confirmed" uncertainty thingy. Maybe it keeps the blogger peeps coming back for more. "Stay tuned ... 'till we really REALLY really know for sure!!"
.

 

My local nissan dealer still has their first and only 2011 still sitting on the lot. Not plugged in and no public charger either. Even in ideal conditions, 73 mile range won't work in these parts as distances are too great. And now they got another 2012.

I'd love to be pure EV but it's still too early for me. At maximum, I need 150 miles per charge at 70 mph hwy in strong winds and hot temps. For reference, those conditions in my Prius net me 39-44 mpg.

 

It won't sell 20,000 units this year. It's still really a toy (and a damn expensive one), more so than the Volt because it requires extremely careful use, or at least would for most people. Paying $25-30k for a vehicle that is going to cause real range issues for a lot of people is a very difficult proposition. It has an EPA range of 58 miles if following the Nissan-recommended 80% charge for long life on the battery. In winter conditions this can fall precipitously below 50.

I would still absolutely buy one, but not at anywhere near its current price.

 

Our Nissan Leaf is our primary driver. We take it everywhere, everyday.
http :// visualization.geblogs.com/visualization/evs/
We use the Prius as the backup and have very few miles on it since the Leaf arrived.

 

It's very common for a family to have 2-3 cars. The Leaf definitely fills the daily beater commuter car niche. Four Magic Acres is not the only user here to have a Leaf and a Prius. The range limitation of the Leaf is only a problem if you are trying to make do with one car, or have a long commute.

While I think that the Leaf has suffered due to lack of disposable income in this poor economy, they also face a huge challenge in having to compete against the forthcoming Tesla Model S.

 

Well, I would say long commute or plan to travel extensively with it. Until the charging infrastructure becomes more mature.

 

??? At $49.9k after tax credit for the 150 miles model?
http://www.teslamotors.com/models/options

S seems a pretty big car - 195" long and 77" wide. Not sure if 77" ref'd from same as Camry, but Camry is 188", 72ish " wide.

IMO, Leaf and S are quite the different market and clientele.

 

Tesla S is actually going to start at $57,500 (their $50k is after $7500 off) vs the Leaf's what $33k or so?

I wouldn't have said they'd compete, but Daniel on the forums was going to buy a Leaf and ended up with a Tesla Roadster, though this because there are so darn few EV options I assume.

 

If that's true, then the Model S is a far more intriguing concept vs. Volt, Leaf, iMEV for the prospective buyer.