to settle this (betting) claim from 1996 we want to know how many Priuses with lane keep assist were sold worldwide until Dec.2010 Estimates or regional sales numbers are also useful basically only whether more than 10000 cars sold until 2010 that qualify for the claim. I think this is very likely, but we need some official number or estimate. -------------- no URLs allowed, so here is a copy of the claim: FX Claim Cars Claim Cars - Self-driving cars by 2010 Category: Science & Technology:Technologybid 11, ask 49, last 32 Owner:47, RJMason Judge:47, RJMason created:1996/05/04 due date:2010/12/31 The Claim "Intelligent" self-driving road vehicles (defined below) enter widespread usage somewhere in the world by the end of 2010. To qualify for the purposes of this claim, a self-driving vehicle must satisfy the following criteria: It must be reliably able to follow a non-straight road at a speed of at least 50 mph (80.5 kph) without input from a human driver. Furthermore, this autonomous operation must be legal in the state/country in which the vehicle resides. It must have a passenger/cargo capacity of at least 300 kg. It must be practically and legally able to travel on roads commonly used by cars and trucks and to mingle with normal road traffic. However, it need not operate autonomously while doing this. Thus, a car which requires an active human driver under most conditions, but can operate autonomously on a special highway or in a special lane, may qualify for the purposes of the claim. While driving autonomously, the vehicle may use any sort of landmarks or beacons to navigate. However, it may not be towed, pushed, pulled, or physically constrained to follow the desired path. Thus, a vehicle towed or carried by another vehicle or a conveyor belt, or running on rail track, etc., does not qualify. Autonomous retrofits of previously manufactured non-autonomous vehicles may qualify for this claim. This claim will be judged YES if the judge finds evidence that at least 10,000 such vehicles have been manufactured and are in operation before December 31, 2010. Otherwise it will be judged NO. Judge's Statement None. The Market Price Plot for life of Cars Your UID: Your password:
Regardless of sales numbers, I don't think the Prius LKA qualifies under this claim: I would dispute that it is reliable, that it can follow a non-straight road, and that it can do so without input. 1. Reliable - many conditions, such as on or off-ramps, shadows (from trees, overpasses, etc.), other vehicles cutting the Prius off, faded lane markings, etc. will cause the Prius LKA to be temporarily disabled (for probably at least 2 seconds, possibly more) until it can find the lane markers again. 2. Non-straight - in general, LKA is capable of holding a turn, but does not apply enough torque to the steering wheel to keep the vehicle within the lane, except for very gradual curves in the road. 3. Without input - The Prius LKA system requires human input at least once every 15 seconds, and at least once every 5 seconds while in a curve (of a particular radius or greater). Without touching the steering wheel at least this often, the system will disable itself.
Normally I'd agree with you, but the claims also states the following: So it can operate 100% autonomously for 15 seconds at a time in a special lane under perfect conditions (no faded lane markers, glare from the sun, etc.) without input from the driver. Worldwide sales just from Jan-Sept 2010 is 401,100 and an estimated 3% of the MY10 sold have LKA according to the Prius Team, so that puts it at more than 10,000 sold. This would in fact be higher but we can't use the 2009 worldwide sales figure as not all Prius sold in 2009 were Gen III.
thanks. It must fullfil these conditions only on some special roads, not all roads. The human "input" could presumably be manipulated with a device or turned off ? I assume it's only required for legal reasons and not a technological necessity. We had long discussion about this in 2010 at the fx-discuss mailing list... Are there any other cars that may qualify and require no human input ? Trucks or military vehicles maybe who allow the human input to be switched off on special roads ? Thinking back ... would you have betted for or against this in 1996 ?
Yes, they don't want people falling asleep at the wheel and suing the pants off Toyota. I think I read somewhere that the U.S. might be the only one getting the LKA in the Prius. If so, that puts the figure at just under the 10,000 sold required to make the claim. Isn't it too late anyway as the deadline was 12/31/2010?
it's not judged yet, the judge was lazy. How many sold until 2010/12/31 ? Any other cars with lane keep assist can be added to make 10000, I only thought the Prius were the best candidate. VW,Nissan,Honda
Even Prius equipped with ATP shipped to Hawaii lack LKA and I don't think we're any more lazy than Hawaiians I didn't notice anything out of ordinary with the roads on my trip to Maui (except for the road to Hana), so maybe lane markings just aren't consistent across the islands to make LKA a feasible option or some other technical reasons.
I think Hawaii is just unique; they're effectively their own country to Toyota, like the rest of the US, or Canada. That probably makes it easier for them to have configurations that are more appropriate for their markets, and to be able to price them differently than the mainland.
so, the ATP("advanced technology package" is (only?) available on the Prius V , which is "Generation 3"-Prius and was sold since May 2009. An estimated 3% of all Prius V had the ATP which includes the LKA and costs ~$5000 extra. But the ATP was not available in all countries, however it was available in Japan(?) and USA(!). An estimated 530000 Prius were sold in 2010 and 400000 in 2009. ~480000 in 2010 and ~360000 in 2009 of these were sold in Japan or USA. My rough estimate would be that ~40% of the 2009 sales and ~80% of the 2010 sales were Prius V (??) That makes ~15000 LKAs sold before 31.Dec.2010 in the Toyota Prius alone.
Your numbers are way to high. I would estimate that less than 10% of the Gen3 Prius sold in the U.S. were Prius V (five) and probably less than half of them had LKA. Also keep in mind that the LKA was part of a package (ATP) that also included the DRCC (radar cruise control) and some other options. The DRCC is the reason most people bought the ATP, I doubt if anyone bought it to get an LKA. As previously mentioned the LKA doesn't even come close to meeting your criteria. My car will go down the road in a fairly straight line just as far with the LKA off as it will with it on. Its only useful function is to give the steering a little nudge if you approach the edge of the lane and sound a beeper if you cross out of the lane. It will not keep you in the lane, the driver must do that. There are no special roads anywhere that would enable the LKA to operate consistently. I would say there are no production cars available the meet your criteria.
just trying to interpret 32colors in post #3 >... as not all Prius sold in 2009 were Gen III not all --> most ? and 2009 is mentioned but not 2010, so (almost) all in 2010 less than 10% in 2009 being wikipedia:A total of 8399 Prius v's were sold during 2011 only since May 2011 Toyota debuted the new Prius (2010 US model year) at the January 2009 North American International Auto Show,[41] and sales began in Japan on May 18, 2009.[42] so, what I need is this one: (XW30) and sales began in Japan on May 18, 2009. On February 9, 2010, Toyota announced a voluntary global recall of third generation 2010 Prius models manufactured from the current model's introduction through late January.[23][24] Affected models, including 133,000 Prius vehicles in the U.S. and 52,000 in Europe At the launch of the XW30, Toyota stated its goal of selling about 400,000 Prius units annually worldwide,[6] and 180,000 units in the U.S. by 2010.[33] As a result, in May 2009 production was increased to 50,000 units per month or 600,000 annual units to help meet higher than projected demand.[34] and sales in the United States dropped 40 percent in February 2010 from October 2009 following concerns about Toyota vehicles' safety, Toyota had to reduce the monthly production by 10 percent to 45,000 units a month in March 2010 The US Prius offers several optional packages: (only US or also in Japan ?) ... Advanced Technology Package: includes the Navigation Package while adding a Pre-Collision System, Dynamic Radar Cruise Control, Lane Keep Assist and Intelligent Parking Assist. 10*50000+10*45000= 950000 Toyota XW30 produced until 31.Dec.2010 (sorry, I had to delete the links)
> an estimated 3% of the MY10 sold have LKA according to the Prius Team what's MY10 ? > For the 3% or so of the MY10 Prius buyers who have the IPA feature, posted July 2010, so that must be the XW30 ~200000 of them sold in USA until 31.Dec.2010, so ~6000 ATPs with LKA in USA. I don't know if XW30s in Japan had ATP available
MY=model year. But it really shouldn't matter because the number sold that meet the conditions of your claim are zero. The LKA doesn't meet the requirements and was not designed to do so.
