First there was this poll: Americans say no to electric cars despite gas prices - USATODAY.com In which we learn that "Such cars "are very much niche vehicles. They find acceptance among a core group of passionistas, but too many questions remain for mainstream consumers," says Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl. He says consumers worry about range per charge, recharge time and battery replacement cost. Electrics also are priced thousands of dollars more than similar gasoline cars." And now there's this article: Design News - Captain Hybrid - Was Electric Car Poll Biased? In which we learn that "What’s particularly interesting about the results, though, is the fact that the pollsters broke down the answers by gasoline price and found that as the prices rose, fewer Americans would be willing to buy an electric car. With a gasoline price of under $6 per gallon, for example, 12 percent said they would consider an EV. After that, the percentages dropped: from $6 to $7.99, 10 percent; from $8 to $10, 9 percent; and above $10 a gallon, just 3 percent." I'm trying to find a link to the original poll complete with the text of the questions and all the answers. If someone else finds it, please link to it. Personally, I find it hard to believe that more than a thousand average people - a statistically significant percent - would all agree that as the price of gasoline gets higher, they would increasingly shun non-gasoline vehicles.
I couldn't find the original poll, but I think the author worded the article badly or didn't understand how to interpret the data. The total number of people considering EV at a given price is more meaningful: <$6: 12% $6-$7.99: 12%+10%=22% $8-$10: 22%+9%=31% >$10: 31%+3%=34% Never consider EV: 57% TOTAL: 91% (perhaps 9% don't know?) The way the author breaks it down, it's merely saying the rate of additional EV adoption decreases as the price of gas goes up slows down, which I don't find particularly surprising or interesting.
Oh snap! I never considered that. I figured they person interpreting the data would know what they were doing. What you're saying, if I understand correctly, is that the diminishing rate comes from only counting the number of "yes" responses. This approach ignores the number of "I would have already owned one by this time" responses. The more accurate way to interpret the data would be to count only the number of "no" responses. Of course, one could also add the previous yeses to the new yeses like you did.
Yes, and the rate adoption of doesn't actually decrease until you hit ~$10, b/c at each point the remaining percentage of people who aren't considering EVs is dropping. The actual rate is the percentage considering divided by percentage who haven't already considered: <$6: 12%/100% = 12% $6-$7.99: 10%/(100%-12%)=~11.4% $8-$10: 9%/(100%-22%)=~11.5% >$10: 3%/(100%-31%)=~4.3% My recall of economics is a little fuzzy, but I think that shows the inelasticity of gas consumption. Or that people aren't very good at answering a hypothetical question. If you are in an average two car family that spends about $4,000 a year on gas when it's currently about $4/gallon, I think you'd reconsider an EV when gas hits $10/gallon and you are spending 2.5*$4,000 = $10,000 a year on gas. Or maybe you'd just move closer to work.
I Think the public always fears CHANGE. It will take many EV's on the road and Lots of PR to bring them along.
ryogajyc was right. Here is the link to the poll: In U.S., High Gas Prices May Make Many Get Fuel-Efficient Cars
Thanks for finding the poll; it is very enlightening. The articles on it were pretty useless in terms of information and the conclusions seemed to be biased. Even with the full poll, much more information is necessary to tease out why people are answering the way they are. For example, the poll asked about mass transit, but it didn't ask if reasonable mass transit was available. In my case, it would take me 15-20 min. to drive to work, but 3 hours to take mass transit and that extra 2 2/3 hours one way is very costly to me, so unless mass transit improves, I would not consider it. As for electric cars, there's only two production models available in the US. The Leaf is fine for commuting, but it's range is short enough that you could run out of power driving somewhere about an hour away (and back). The Tesla is not really affordable for most people. As ranges increase, prices come down, charging stations proliferate, people will see it as a viable alternative. I think there are reasonable drawbacks that prevent people from considering EVs and it isn't just fear. To me the number considering EVs given the current availability and state of EVs is high. 12% of people are considering EV's when gas is <$6, when production EVs make up much less than 12% of the models of cars available. Tho' to be fair, the percentage of people considering EVs at the current price of gas would be more useful for that comparison. It can be hard to move if you have a underwater mortgage and you don't want to default. For changing jobs, the economy makes it hard to find a job and changing a job can be very stressful.
Great figuring, ryogajyc. Regardless of the data handling or the bungling of the articles... the fact remains that when you poll somebody about a product they know nothing about directly, the results will ALWAYS be crap. We go through this with the EV crowd all the time in regard to single-pedal driving (almost all your braking/regen power in the go pedal). Those who have never experienced it say they won't like it. Those who have experienced think it is the wave of the future and want it in all future vehicles. And of course the inexperienced typically point out that those of us with experience can't be trusted because we're all fringe nutcases anyway. So best to trust the ignorant than the experienced, I always say. Because just like my daughter, everybody knows exactly how much they'll like a certain thing before they've tasted it.
The first question was asked in a way, you have to sell your car now and buy a new car. If it says, when time to replace your current car, the result should be totally different.
It also says, "...an electric car that you could only drive a limited number of miles at one time..." It doesn't mention whether that "limited number of miles" is 20 miles or 300 miles. Kind like asking someone, "how likely are you to start a new, lengthy endeavor if you learned that you have only a limited number of days remaining to live?" The answer, of course, hinges around the person's realization that we all have a limited number of days remaining to live.
I currently drive a vehicle that geta approx 400 miles for just about 8 gal of gas. When an electric car is available that gets 400 miles drive time with under a 4 hour full charge, I will be first in line to purchase one. So will thousands of other folk. As much as I like the Leaf, the mileage and time till full charge and charging stations away rom home are serious issues to plan your drive around!
