Hybrids Effect on Future Gas Prices?

Lot's of variables to consider like if and when Iraq will be a stable supply of oil, as well as increases in worldwide demand.

If you take out these two factors and figure in good ole fashioned supply and demand, a reduction of demand typically results in the lowering of price given a stable supply.

 

As demand falls here, it will still be accelerating in the less advanced parts of the world.

Too many variables, too incremental a difference.

So let's play it safe and drill in the Artic!

 

Right now it is actually increased demand raising gas prices due to the need for new wells. Which means drilling in more risky and deeper locations thus more costly.

 

Demand is up due to unnecessary consumption (Re: no increases in fleet fuel mileage). Supply is ample from a global perspective, thus our over dependence on outside oil supplies (60+%?). I fail to buy the "it's the cost of finding and extracting it" excuse. The proposed Energy Bill is giving them tens of $Bs to access these imprudent locations.

Personally, I think gasoline is way underpriced, and the Government is way behind in its promotion of energy conservation. Advancements on both fronts will result in a more secure National energy future.

:roll: Now, if only the "advancement" was tilted more to the conservation side.

 

Even with the doubling of hybrids year on year in NA, the increase in demand from China and India will dwarf the impact of improved MPG. Can you say $5 gas?

 

A drop in consumption, everything else being equal, would decrease prices, not increase them. Of course, everything else isn't equal, and hybrids won't have any effect on gas prices at all. There are too many other larger variables.

 

The US should have been taxing the heck out of gasoline, to the tune of $3/gal, starting years ago.
Then folks wouldn't have considered moving ever farther afield, into new McMansions, tolerating 45-90 minute drive-commutes to work.
We could have used the added income to bolster mass transit, keep our bridges in good repair, build better and more centralized livable communities.

But no; we chose to feed our addiction to cheap gas and inexpensive power, and Madison Ave's version of "the good life".

Don't worry about the fuel and power companies. They're big (actually, they're huge) boys and know how to take care of themselves. Remember that diesel, gasoline, and power all come out of the same barrels of oil. We set up our system to work that way, we've made petroleum supplies crucial to our economy. The fuel companies can get all sorts of neat products to sell from the same barrel. Do they manipulate supplies of, say, heating/diesel and gasoline to control prices? Oh, you betcha!

The prices will go the way the boys in big oil want them to. Especially if their lobbists continue to be as sucessful in Washington as they have been.

 

Price of fuel (diesel and gasoline) will drop slightly with increases in hybrids, plug-in hybrids and eventually plug-ins & photovoltaics. However, with 6.4 billion people, increasing demand for finite oil, prices will stay the same or increase.

We have modeled communities on sprawl and more driving, not less. Fuel should costt $10 per gallon with the "extra" going to infrastructure improvements (light rail, bicycle & pedestrian lanes) and decentalized power production (conservation & photovolatics on every church, school, business and home).

Only those who think short-term, expect the cost of fuel to go down and stay down.

 

Don't forget that peoples reaction to fuel prices is to a large extent based on the price level they are used to.

In Norway, we have always had higher prices on gas than the US, even if we are a significant oil (and gas) producing country.

Prices here for a gallon of gasoline is approx. USD 6,25, and this is NOT reducing peoples use of their cars - or SUVs for that matter...

Diesel is somewhat cheaper though (about 10%) - which have meant that some people have been switching to diesel the last 2 to 3 years.

 

the brief rise to $3 gas (unfortunately it has dropped to 2.29 here...bummer) did start to show signs that people were driiving less to save money. hybrids will just allow people to go back to their old wasteful habits unless the price of gas goes up with the increased gas mileage

 

Hybrids (and other better technologies) should allow people to resume their normal behavior. The behavior is not in it's self bad it is the technology used to achieve that end. The present technology is the problem. The hybrid is the bridge technology, not a end. I hope that Toyota keeps the Prius as a beta test bed for new technologies, I'll get one!

 

The difference in price is not because the crude or refined oil costs that much more, but because your government puts more taxes on the product. The same situation exists in our different states as they assess different taxes on gasoline.

I think you're right though ... people are happy here that a gallon of gas has fallen to under $2.50, when it was about a dollar less than that little more than a year ago. Interestingly, diesel is running more than gasoline here in California. Not sure if it is elsewhere.

 

Kunstler is right. The suburbs where the McMansions were built are inherently dependent on cheap oil. If the price of energy keeps going up, the suburbs will die. The reason that diesel has risen so much in the past year is due to the increasing demand from China. If everyone in the U.S. and Canada switched to hybrids, the overall demand probably wouldn't drop that much because of demand increasing around the world. We should still set the example and show the rest of the world that it can, and should, be done but until the entire "civilized" world reduces consumption, the cost of energy in general will continue to climb. Of course, who's going to listen to a country that refused to pay attention to Kyoto?

 

In my opinion hybrids are having a negligible effect on gas prices in the short term. The recent price spikes were much more about perceived threat to supply(katrina, etc) than a change in demand. Over time if 10% of new vehicles being delivered were hybrid(saya 25% improvement in mileage) that would have a true effect on the price. As for the long-term price of gas, and I will take a lot of heat on this, it will never get much higher than what we experienced last summer, as with every price spike the amount being demanded tends to drop in some cases dramatically.

Every time the price spikes demand for alternative vehicles increases and a much greater emphasis is placed by every manuf company in r & d to improve efficiency and alternative fuels. Necessity is the mother of all invention, if you really want fuel efficiency and alternative fuels just have gas prices go to $4.00 gallon some time this coming summer. The energy producing nations and energy companies know this so they continue to walk a very fine line, trying not ot kill the goose laying the golden eggs.

 

I would like to see a list of the countries that signed the Kyoto Treaty and how compliant each of those countries is. Wasn't China a signer of that treaty? How are they doing on the air quality of China. I am all for agreements that can make a real environmental difference in the world, but totally against agreements which will penalize the US and are not worth the paper they were written on.

 

I don't know the list, but China was exempt from Kyoto. That's the rub because their environmental policies stink (no pun intended). Their air quality in cities is where our worst was 30 years ago. Considering they match us now in oil consumption, they'll have big issues in the future ... and the air and water don't know what country they're in.

Also, while the EU countries signed on, they recently announced they're not gonna meet their Kyoto targets. The US knew it was unrealistic and didn't sign. Others did and can't meet the targets or were exempt in the first place.

 

Your member name cracks me up. I can't wait to see the avatar that you come up with. Shemp in a kilt?

 

So it was all a big feel-good charade? As a business person who really is concerned about the environment, it is time to get rid of all the bs and unrealistic expectations in the environmental movement. Real change will never happen because of 'smoke and mirrors' (i couldn't resist) agreements like kyoto, it will happen when the movement becomes non-political and more a question of realistic environmental ethics.