A Few thousand ? The Earth has been in a natural warming period for the past 15,000 years. Arctic ice is supposed to be at a 15,000 year minimum. Its natural. These studies are scientific FUD.
The 15,000-year-warming statement ignores the speed at which the ice is disappearing. Based on the best available analysis, the total arctic ocean ice volume, at the summer minimum, is now about one-third of what it was in 1979. Polar Science Center - APL-UW - Arctic Sea Ice Volume "September Ice Volume was lowest in 2009 at 5,800 km^3 or 67% below its 1979 maximum." So, at the summer minimum, 2/3rds of the ice has disappeared in 30 years. It appears that the 1970s data was a low as any in the prior four decades (not saying much, just says the 1970s data do not represent exceptional ice cover): 3rd Symposium on the Impact of an Ice-Diminishing Arctic on Naval and Maritime Operations - June 9 - 11, 2009 The US Navy is planning for an ice-free summer Arctic ocean by 2030: Navy: Time is now to prep for ice-free Arctic - Navy News, news from Iraq - Navy Times So, here's an analogous statement: The earth has been in a natural warming period for the past 15,000 years. C02 increased during that time. Therefore the C02 increase in the past century is natural. Putting aside the fact that we know the C02 increase is man-made, that statement is wrong because it ignores the change in the rate of increase. The increase in C02 during this last warming period, prior to the industrial revolution, amounted to 100 ppm over about 10,000 years. But the C02 increase in the last century was 100 ppm in 100 years. That's 100 times faster. And so with the ice. Presumably summer ice extent and volume have been falling over the past 15,000 years. Can't say that I know of any direct record of that. But for sure, they've been falling fast, recently. As in, lost two-thirds of the volume in thirty years. And ice-free is pretty much as low as it goes. My take on the current data? The ice cap is now so thin by recent historical standards that the ice extent is becoming more variable. Compared to historical data, it won't take much in the way of unusual temperature, wind, or currents to produce a new record summer low. It's now more random. When the 2007 summer ice extent low produced a new record, by 25%, people were wondering whether that was a fluke, or whether that was the start of a new paradigm. Extent pinged right back up for the next two years. But I'm betting we set a new summer low this year. The ice is thin, the Arctic is warm, it won't take much to push this below the 2007 record. EDIT: OR I COULD JUST TRY ACTUALLY READING THE CITED ARTICLE: " The ice loss that we see today—the ice loss that started in the early 20th Century and sped up during the last 30 years—appears to be unmatched over at least the last few thousand years. —Leonid Polyak, Byrd Polar Research Center at OSU and lead author"
"These studies are scientific FUD." Only for those that who refuse, for what ever reason to accept the reality of the science. Anecdotally, I flew from the UK to Seattle last week over the pole. The last week of May, and the shear volume of open water, both fresh and salt was startling! I have some first hand experience with far northern fresh water (non with salt) and my impression is that spring breakup is very much further advanced than it ought to be by historical norms. Large lakes that I have known to be ice covered into July are open in May. In our own case, our far Northern Ontario lake was ice free the first week of April this spring, 6 weeks earlier than our historical average of May 9th!
