Leaf: guesstimate on $ per mile

it's way more than 1,000 cycles. Nissan has stated the battery pack warranty is 5 years, so assuming daily commuter use, that is 5 days a week * say 50 weeks a year, or 250 charge days / year, not counting weekends or vacations... that would already be 1,250 charge cycles without weekend use in the 5 years.

lets assume the Leaf is used every day, 365 day/year, * 5 years, that = 1825 days
in the warranty period

You can also assume the battery pack is not going to be totaly cycled each day, in other words it might only be down %40 or %60, so the battery will last longer than you think. Just look at how great the Panasonic EV-95 battery has done in the RAV4EV, 7-8 years and many are still going strong. Yes, they are not Lithium, but so what?

The pack might last 7 to 10 years, which are estimates we have heard, in that case it's pretty much the life of the car, as when the pack won't hold a charge any longer, it's probably time to replace the car, as I imagine better EV technology will be availble by then, cars and battery packs..

a better way to get the cost/mile is to add the electricty cost for the miles you drive per year, and assume the car has a 7 year life. Add that electricty # to the entire cost of the car, and divide by your total mileage, that is the true cost per mile, assuming the Leaf is worth nothing at the end of 7 years.

I drive about 12,000 miles/year, * 7 years = 84,000 miles
cost to charge? well, no more than say 20KW/day * 365 days * 7 years, or 51,100 KW over 7 years, or @ my rate of .14/KW, $7,154.00 + $28,000.00 (Leaf + $2200 charger) (roughly) for the leaf = $35154/7 years, or .4185 per mile

Some of these assumption are going to be wrong, it won't always take 20KW of power each day, it may not be charged or driven every day, and it might last longer than 7 years, the Leaf will be worth something at the end of 7 years, etc, this is just an example.

 

Bad assumption. Nissan has stated multiple times their batteries cost less. The latest I've seen is 6K Pounds, About $9,100.

Ofcourse, if you lease like I'm planning to, we don't have to care about battery.

ps : The link is here.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article7086781.ece

 

I realize I don't know what a 'cycle' is. If it means 0 - 100% SoC, then OP's arithmetic using his assumptions is simply 24,000 kwh/$15,000, and if a kwh is good for 4 miles then
we go 6.4 miles/$, or about 16 cents a mile. If the replacement costs $9000, that works out to about 10 cents a mile.

This just hints how far petrol prices have to rise before EV will displace HV on a mass scale. Add in the opportunity cost of the more expensive EV up front, and it comes to about $10/gallon for petrol assuming current electricity prices.

Mind, this is just the price of the pack, not including charging costs.

 

In CA:
Tier-I:0.11c
Tier-II:0.13c
Tire-III:0.28c <===8-&
Unless you rarely stay at home, your electricity bill is likely to be at Tier-III.
I know I am, and all my light bulbs are CFL already.
Wife stays home, and 3 kids with their own computers. Tire-III is what it is.

Pure EV just does not compute for me even if I lease the Leaf.

 

It doesn't. They make money on the car and dealer price would be lower too.

I'm in WA. Moreover, having bought many high priced, fast depreciating V1 products - I like the idea of leasing. I expect more options & better batteries in 3 years.

 

Off topic, but solar heating and clothes drying on a line can do wonders for electricity bills, particularly with kids at home.

 

In Fremont, some gated communities do not allow clothes lines nor solar water heater on the roof.

 

That is too bad, if it is the case. My neighborhood has about 8732 covenants, but in a fit of progressive thought, actually has 'solar rights'.

 

When comparing total cost of ownership, don't forget to add in the cost of engine maintenance & oil changes, plus engine repairs and transmission rebuilds to the total cost of ownership of gasoline cars and hybrids.

 

1:
After whatever the charge cycles are (I don't know for their chemistry) it doesn't stop being usable, it degrades. Common to see 20% loss (so 80 range drops to 64 for example)

4: Leaf only has 16kWh usable. Cut charge 2/3. Also, you need charging efficiency. I've used 90%. Multiply cost by 1/efficiency.

 

For the first 80,000 it's really just the oil changes. If you're planning to go 2 batteries worth, say (assuming the battery won't last) then you can compare higher maintenance costs for the ICE vehicle.

 

If you're amortizing you need to use expected replacement cost not purchase cost because it's the replacement you're worried about. If you're only going one battery then what matters is the purchase cost of the car and the battery cost is irrelevant. $15,000 is $625/kWh and prices are expected to drop within the next 5 years.

 

1: different chemistry
2: has little or no management to extend life. (I had a laptop that wouldn't charge until the battery dropped below 95%, which was nice.)

 

not relevant. Example: Many 2-way hand-held radios still use nickel batteries, and they'll last maybe on average about 3 years with heavy use. RAV-4ev nickel batteries have lasted 10 years now ... and 100,000 miles. Gotta talk apples to apples.

 

Nissan officially says the battery will hold 80% charge after 10 years. Assume 0 value after that.

Let us say you drive 100,000 miles in 10 years. Let us assume $10K battery price that we pay upfront (assume we can get a Leaf like ICE car for $15K).

That is 10 cents per mile for battery, 3 cent for power for a total of about 13 cents per mile.

@$3 a gallon and 20 to 30 mpg ICE car, we are looking at 10 to 15 cents a mile.

ps : This not considering socialized (external) costs of oil
- "secuirty" costs
- Health costs
- Environmental costs

Also completing ignoring Peak Oil.

I think it would be dumb not to buy a Leaf instead of ICE.

 

Is the Nissan Leaf battery pack under-engineered? &mdash; Autoblog Green