PEAK OIL: The 'fix' for the transportation half of emissions.

CO2 emissions from transportation aren't the big, bad bogeyman of the era. PEAK OIL may be the thing that will 'fix' it. As well as 'globalization'.

I don't drive a Prius to 'save the world' from pollution. In the short term, until all of those electric cars come online and are affordable, my Prius acts as insurance against spiking fuel prices. If I can maintain my 60MPG fuel economy, then transportation will remain affordable, even if gas creeps up to $10 a gallon. And that's not only entirely possible, it's not as high as fuel prices can go.

This little 4-part video is an absolutely fantastic primer on PEAK OIL, at least after the first two minutes of introduction. Jeff Rubin explains Global Peak Oil and some of the global impacts it is already having.

If we import half our petroleum from overseas tyrants, then I will be content to burn the 'other' half that is still produced here and be 'powered by America'. At least until I can afford a real electric car.

 

Yeah. Energy security is no big deal.

One nuke in a Saudi oil field later, how will things look through those rose-colored glasses as we go to war for oil AGAIN?

Maybe they just sink a couple of super tankers? You know, something a couple of clowns with a zodiac, half a ton of explosives and a promise of 'virgins' could pull off.

Yes, every oil well produces only a fraction of the petroleum available to it. This is because it becomes exponentially more expensive to extract 'more' oil once the 'easy' oil is gone.

There is lots of that oil sand in Canada. It only makes economic sense to exploit it if oil is well over $100 a barrel. In other words, not CHEAP oil. Even worse, no matter how many facilities you build to get that sand and cook the oil out of it, no matter how many mountains you overturn and how much water you pollute and how much oil you burn to get oil (yes, they burn a LOT of oil to extract that oil), they can not possibly KEEP UP WITH DEMAND producing oil as other 'easy' reserves run out. They can't build all of that stuff fast enough, and the energy needed to cook, refine and transport that fuel begins to reach the 'break even' point with what is produced. And gosh, you have to dismantle and move those facilities near where the sand is collected, as the local supplies are depleted, too. Eventually, a huge swath of real estate turned into a lunar landscape of toxic waste lined pits poisoning the ground water, with derelict sand refineries and equipment all over it. Just what every Canadian desires.

There is lots of oil under the oceans. Once again, they can't keep making floating oil platforms fast enough to keep up with demand as other reserves become unavailable, and they're INCREDIBLY expensive to build.

Alaska! Alaska still has oil. Of course, if they got the green light TODAY to rape those nature reserves, it would take them ten or twenty years hauling machinery and people up there and building expensive infrastructure north of the arctic circle, then pumping for more than a decade to add ONE year to the petroleum supply.

If it's too expensive for consumers to buy, the oil will just stay where it is, and your gasoline powered car will become a lawn ornament, because if your car is too expensive for you to drive, it will probably be a bit too expensive to tow away for scrap, too.

Oil Production to Peak in 2014, Kuwaiti Scientists Predict | LiveScience

 

More symptoms:
COSCO CEO Wei Jiafu advocates nuclear power for cargo ships

The biggest shipping company in the world is looking into nuclear power for their cargo vessels. Another sign that petroleum is not expected to remain reliably 'cheap and abundant' in the coming years. If oil shoots back up again, and they're the only substantially nuclear powered cargo carrier, they could become the ONLY carrier.

The Incredible Ghost Fleet Off The Coast Of Singapore

Another thing that has oil down. Hundreds of container ships anchored and idle due to the economic recession. Instead of constantly burning enormous amounts of petroleum EACH to remain in near constant motion, they're parked. About 25% of all of the shipping there is, is idled. And all of the other transport top to bottom over land that these would have represented is also idled.

When the economy struggles back to life, oil prices will be there to harpoon it through the head again. The only lasting economic recovery and growth possible reduces or eliminates our need for the goop.

Of course *IF* Iraq remains stable, and EVERYTHING goes right in the Middle East in the years to come, their petroleum reserves may add a few years to the global timetable.

There's always the 'peak demand' theory that came into vogue as the 2008 prices skyrocketed, and the 'oil cornucopians' needed some kind of excuse, but if (as seems likely) that happens AFTER peak oil, there will be suffering aplenty. Especially since it looks like the 'peak demand' they're talking about means the economy is strangled for decades.
Peak Oil Demand Is Coming, But Here's Why It's Not Good News

 

Another somewhat damning bit of Peak Oil evidence: Various OPEC members falsifying their reserves. Well, who can blame them? If you want to borrow some cash to build new water treatment plants or power plants (that all burn OIL in OPEC countries), or build more oil wells to try to make up for depletion, you want to show the lender that you'll be able to pay them back.

[ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil]Peak oil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]


Graph of OPEC reported reserves showing refutable jumps in stated reserves without associated discoveries, as well as the lack of depletion despite yearly production.

And always remember, even if the amazingly inflated '1.2 trillion barrels' reserve figure for proves out, the demand will not remain constant (it is increasing dramatically), and there is no guarantee that they can pump it out of the ground as fast as skyrocketing demand requires it for stable pricing, even assuming no natural (or MAN MADE) disaster stops or reduces production somewhere.

 

Absolutely. You're right. Why burn the precious commodity that you're spending SO MUCH MONEY producing from tar when you can burn a 'less precious' commodity that ALSO could be running cars? Spend a substantial amount of OTHER fossil energy inefficiently producing fuel with only marginally more energy than you put into producing it, to run antiquated engines that can ONLY run on one kind of fuel. At least until the price and/or bulk availability of 'natural gas' goes up for trying to meet that petroleum demand. Then they will burn oil... or coal... or perhaps trees. For 'carbon emissions', it's pretty much a wash.

If we cut our fuel USE down by 30%, we'd be 'only' importing about 20% of our fuel...

Or maybe not.

Realistically, since foreign labor laws are more lenient for working people to death for a pittance, then burying them in unmarked graves, and 'environmental laws' in OPEC countries indicate how cold a corrupt politician's AC should be, we'll import just as much gasoline and idle the 'more expensive' U.S. petroleum production as long as we keep the global price down with reduced demand.

Unfortunately, people in China and India are buying up cheap little cars like hotcakes. GM is selling more cars in China than in the U.S. Millions of people who used to walk, ride a bike or take a bus/train are getting behind the wheel as their income and standard of living increases. What we can gain when we 'conserve' is NOT what it used to be. For every Prius in the U.S., they'll LITERALLY sell a Buick in China.

That'll take up the slack as long as fuel prices stay low enough for them to afford to operate those cars, no matter what we do to conserve and keep the price affordable HERE.

What WILL make an impact is alternative fuels. If the applications that currently require petroleum derived fuels can be re-powered in the coming years, then the price of petroleum eventually won't matter.

Like mass producing diamonds... it's just carbon (well carbon+water for oil - without getting into chemistry). ALSO like mass-producing diamonds, there is a whole chain of corporate and national interests which demand the petroleum remain the ONLY viable energy source for transportation. That petroleum remain a vital commodity. Just... affordable... enough... no matter what happens to civilization when the 'affordable' stuff runs short of demand.

Another bright light is that competitive, highway capable electric vehicles are finally to be built, globally. In real numbers. Even if the American car companies want to cover their ears and scream 'La-la-la!!!' at both U.S. consumer demand for electric vehicles AND U.S. consumer loathing for petroleum companies (remember ALL TIME RECORD PROFITS in 2007 and 2008?), the electric cars will be produced. Because in China and India and Japan and Europe, they know that petroleum is not a promising long term investment to make. They'll re-power, and U.S. consumers might have to buy up 'foreign' cars if 'American' companies like GM insist on doing 'limited run' production, as they did with the EV1.

I think what you power your car with should be a CHOICE. Like 'classic' phone, wireless or VOIP. EVDO/DSL/Cable for internet.

Gasoline, electric, CNG. May the best technology WIN.

(No Hydrogen will NEVER work.)

 

Absolutely agree with most of this, too.

It's just that your statement is basically that you don't believe in 'Peak Oil' because you believe in peak oil.

No credible 'Peak Oil' proponent will ever say we'll 'run out'. Petroleum becomes UNAFFORDABLE. Production does not keep up with demand 'forever'. There could be a thousand years' supply stuck underground, but if it's too expensive or difficult to suck up and sell to 'Joe Sixpack' and his SUV, it doesn't matter how much oil there still is. 'Joe Sixpack' will park it, or become filled with impotent rage for 'owning' a big car that he can't afford to drive to work anymore, but having to drive it to work anyway.

Every OPEC nation routinely 'increases' their reserve without any new discovery of petroleum. Not only that, they never show a decrease in their so-called 'reserves'. Millions of barrels a day, pumped up for decades... and only MORE oil down there? Even when reports leak about increasing returns of salt water in the oil Saudis pump out of their fields (they force sea water into the ground to get oil up... and they force more and more sea water to get less and less oil.) They won't EVER come anywhere close to running out of oil until nothing at all comes out of the ground.

What? The market's not hot enough for oil? People are talking about 'alternative fuels' AGAIN? Well... CLAIM WE HAVE MORE TO SELL!

Keep buying! Depend on us! We'll keep your SOUL safe for you! Promise!

What seems more realistic... that we get MORE of a fossil fuel that took a billion years to accumulate no matter how much we use... or that certain people are inflating their numbers? A perfect, eternal cornucopia sounds wonderful... but we don't have one.

The U.S. hit 'Peak Oil' in 1970. It's hit in other former petroleum exporters, like Indonesia. It will peak globally long before it peaks locally 'everywhere'. Three NEW barrels of supply discovered for every nine consumed, worldwide. And that ratio shows no sign of improving.

Video: Gorgeous Flowers | The Daily Show | Comedy Central

 

Again we agree. Oil won't just 'stop'.

It's ALREADY doing what it will do.

When supplies run low, the price shoots up, and the economy crashes, which kills demand.

This gives the available oil production 'breathing room' to fill up the storage and 'glut' supply, and then the price drops... and it sets up the next mirage of abundant oil when the economy recovers, then heats up enough to start outstripping production again.

There is little to no 'surplus' production of petroleum. One accident or 'accident' or outright attack on production is all it would take. The likelihood that 'all will go well' in the coming years is slim to none.

Of course, then we'll have something else to blame an oil shortage on. "It's not that we can't keep up with demand, it's that we can't keep up with demand because 'xxxx' happened!"

It's just that if ANYTHING happens, and the oil supply is throttled, and the prices will go up very rapidly.

Some kind of 'ANYTHING' will eventually happen. The oil supply is a house of cards.