Betelgeuse, Betelgeuse, Betelgeuse... may be getting closer to Supernova...

Celestial fireworks just in time for the 4th of July, how caring of the universe to provide such entertainment.

 

A gamma ray pulse would be cool

 

"is this the big bang that does us in...'
Ahh, one of my favorite stars from back in my gazing days! How exactly would this have any effect on us other than an interesting visual show for us to watch?

I'm most surprised that Fox has a science section to even report this! I didn't think Fox was into that kind of stuff!

 

Sorry Dude, no GRB for you...

Betelgeuse's fate

It is likely that Betelgeuse will become a supernova. Considering its size and age of 8.5 million years – old for its size class – it may explode within the next thousand years—if it hasn't already. Since its rotational axis is not toward the Earth, Betelgeuse's supernova would not cause a gamma ray burst in the direction of Earth large enough to damage its ecosystem even from a relatively close proximity of 520 light years.
A Betelgeuse supernova could easily outshine the moon in the night sky. It will likely be the brightest supernova in recorded Human history, easily outshining SN 1006. After it explodes, it will likely linger for several months, being visible in the daytime sky and lighting up nighttime skies in the Solar System for a long time, after which the "right shoulder" of Orion will disappear forever.
Reported on June 9, 2009, the star has shrunk 15% in the last 15 years. This means the average speed in which the radius of the star is shrinking, over the last 15 years is approximately 470-490 miles per hour. The rate that it has been decreasing in size has accelerated. Though the data is inconclusive, major news media have been reporting that this data could presage a Supernova[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supernova"][/ame].

Well...so much for GRB, in fact since we are approx 640 light yeas away, unless it blew 639.9999 years ago I won't be holding my breath for the fireworks...

I do like the 12/21/2012 idea however!!!

I'll get back to everyone on 12/22/2012 with more info!!!

Thank You Wikipedia

 

Just for the sake of discussion, what could it mean if Earth were to be
bombarded by :flame:gamma rays? :noidea:

 

Well lets play "Mr Wizard"

Everyone go to the refrigerator, grab a hot dog, put it in a paper plate, place in the Microwave, set to HI for 5 minutes, press COOK!

Any more questions?

 

Your car would throw error codes never before seen by the eyes of man.

 

And quite possibly the last thing to be seen by man, or any other organic life on this rock!!!

A gamma-ray burst in the Milky Way, if close enough to Earth and beamed towards it, could have significant effects on the biosphere[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosphere"][/ame]. The absorption of radiation in the atmosphere would cause photodissociaton of nitrogen, generating nitric oxide that would act as a catalyst to destroy ozone. According to a 2004 study, a GRB at a distance of about a kiloparsec could destroy up to half of Earth's ozone layer; the direct UV irradiation from the burst combined with additional solar UV radiation passing through the diminished ozone layer could then have potentially significant impacts on the food chain and potentially trigger a mass extinction.

 

I take it that neither nor both:
* a liberal dosing in SPF 60 (or mustard) or
* a tin foil hat
will have any salutary prophylactic effect.

 

How likely is it that a star we cannot see would super-nova and douse us in a gamma ray burst? Would any candidate extinction-level star (i.e. close enough to us and in condition to become a super-nova) be on the star charts, making itself known, as Betelgeuse is showing us its potential to pop?

 

I feel the need to address some of the stuff here, both as an astronomer and to protect the reputation of my namesake.

It's extremely unlikely that an unknown star would affect life on earth. In general, the types of stars that may affect us are the things that are close by and big/massive. Those tend to be quite bright in our sky. There are several stars on the "watch list" right now, including Betelgeuse and a really cool star called V838 Monocerotis.

Betelgeuse is way too distant to affect the orbits of anything in our solar system. The only thing that we would have to legitimately worry about is if it's axis were pointed at us and we got hit by a gamma ray burst. Even then, that wouldn't affect the orbits of the bodies in the solar system, but it could fry the atmosphere and destroy life on earth that way. Even if the nearest sizable star (Alpha Centauri) went supernova, that likely wouldn't affect Earth significantly. Of course, Alpha Cen isn't going to go supernova, anyway.

No one really knows. Stellar evolution models are considered super-accurate if they can estimate timescales to with 1000 years. And, to be honest, we really don't have any good models for the end of life of massive stars. That big star I mentioned earlier (V838 Mon) is violating all sorts of things that we "knew" about the evolution of massive stars.

There's no way to know. Since the uncertainty in stellar evolution timescales is longer than the light travel time, it's anyone's guess.

 

When two events are so far apart and so near in time that light from one cannot reach the other, then it's not actually meaningful to say that one has happened before the other. Therefore we cannot assert that "perhaps" Betelgeuse has "already" popped. There would be some frame of reference within which it had not "already" popped.

Only once the light reaches us can we say categorically that the event has happened.

 

Just because we don't have any knowledge of it, doesn't mean that it hasn't already happened. It's just that we can't say that it happened until after we observe it. So, if astronomers observe a supernova in 600 years, than they'll know that it went off about now. On the other hand, since we're observing these changes now, it means that the changes actually happened about 600 years ago. Will these changes lead to a supernova in short order? We'll just have to wait and see.