Hybrid sales are (going to be) in trouble as much as SUVs and trucks, maybe worse

Funny, I've had my Jetta for almost 6 years, and 180k, and I replaced an alternator (at 150K) and shocks/struts/springs. That's it. Also, my OCI is twice as long, at 10k miles. For five of those years, diesel averaged to be a little less than gas through the entire year (cheaper in summer and higher in winter). I'm still not really convinced that the price gap will stay as high once we hit spring, as 20-30 percent isn't that uncommon in the winter. Last summer was an anomaly.

Also, not getting into semantics, my TDI was $800 more than the 2.0 gasser and about $700 less than the 1.8T gasser. Considering the fact that the performance (particularly the highway drivability) is much better than the 2.0, I realy consider that a wash, because I would have gone for the 1.8T if I had chosen gas. We picked up the Prius because it was a good relative deal, but I never would have paid $29k for what we got.

My diesel has been QUITE reliable, and while there are horror stories out there, there are a ton of recent (99-05) diesels which have been on the road for well over 300k miles with no major issues. I'm not going to say that they're *more* reliable than, say, a Prius, but it's certainly not been worse. The trick is that there are *differences* in how you take care of a diesel that create pitfalls. If you're not willing or able to make those concessions, you run the risk of harming the car.

IMO, VW did a major disservice by not training their NA dealers well enough, and there are far more horror stories of diesels at dealers than of hybrids at dealers. It's this, much more than the inherent reliability of the car that casts a negative light. Seriously, kudos to Toyota for a much better product introduction.

Finally, I still don't have much fun driving the Prius. I have to say it's much better than I thought it would be, but it still mildly concerns me on quick back roads or over 75 or so on the highway. It's not as fun in the turns and it's not as stable on the highway. I have a mildly upgraded suspension on the Jetta, so the comparison is a bit unfair, but it's very difficult to mildly upgrade the Prius suspension. It's either TRD + lots of braces or nothing, IMO.

Bottom line, I'm getting really tired of people posting blanket statements (like the one quoted) that they really don't know anything about. (I've posted the same type of sentiment on TDICLUB, too, regarding the Prius).

J

 

Blanket statements are easy to make, and almost always wrong or partially wrong. Let's take the comment about diesel reliability for an example. The U.S. auto industry tried to make diesel engines from modified gasoline engine blocks. These engines were a disaster. On the other end of the spectrum is the diesel in my sailboat. It is single cylinder model weighing almost 500 pounds for 10 hp. It has no oil pump, no fuel pump, and no electronics. That engine will probably outlast all of us on PriusChat.

The problem is that there is no such thing as a standard diesel. They vary all over the map. We can try to qualify our blanket statement by introducing qualifiers. If we say "standard automotive diesel" that is better, but still not perfect. The design and construction of automotive diesel engines has changed a lot in the past two decades, and it continues to change. You almost have to specify a particular make, model, and year.

General comparisons are still okay. The diesel cycle is inherently more efficient due to higher compression and reduced pumping losses. On the other hand, diesels create particulates and higher levels of some exhaust gasses.

As soon as I make these general comparisons, a bunch of people will jump on and post "What about clean diesel fuel, and the new particulate filters?" The technology is changing too fast to make blanket statements.

Tom

 

I just wanted to add my two cents here...

This past summer i moved - instead of a 7 mile commute, i now have a 1 mile commute. The past few weeks it's either been too cold or too crappy out for me to bike to work (and probably will be until spring), so i've been driving. As anyone here can tell you, that's going to trash my mileage - a 1 mile commute and the engine is going to be on warming up the entire time. Overall, i've been driving around 100 miles per week lately, with no trips longer than 10 miles. And i don't hypermile. I still get 45mpg on this tank. Compared to the Pontiac i sold when i got the Prius 2.5 years ago, thats amazing. The Pontiac, on a very, very good tank, would get 25mpg. The Prius and hybrid technology DO still work even in conditions that are horrible for their mileage. not as well, but they still do give you a benefit.

Other than that, with the widely advertised waiting lists at most dealers, i doubt Prius sales are slumping because of lack of demand. I will, however, agree with you that consumers are, in general, stupid. The dip in gas prices ($1.93 last night!) is certainly a boon to SUV sales. What will be interesting is how we'll see gas prices in the long run. I wouldn't put it past the oil companies to artificially lower the price of gas every 3 years or so for 6 months to get people to buy SUV's. Think about it... you buy the gas guzzler when oil prices are low, then drive it when they're high, then start looking for a replacement just as the prices drop again! Brilliant strategy.

 

Once one is driving a Prius, aggressive driving becomes so absolutely, thoroughly YESTERDAY'S-NEWS !

Aggressive driving becomes relegated to another lifetime. :nod:

 

More importantly Aggressive driving and Prius do not belong in same sentance.
Dirty Harry Callahan said it best ...

"Man's got to know his limitations!"

or at least the limitations of his/her Prius!!!

73 de Pat KK6PD

 

I don't think an '03 TDI is what the previous poster meant when they reffered to "modern diesel" The point I think was that the new "clean" diesel engines are every bit as complicated (or more) than a gasoline engine, most likely removing any inherent advantage.

As to the "blanket" statement issue, it seems very fair to say that on average the VW TDIs are much less reliable than the Prius. A single persons experience is fairly irrelevant, as you have no idea where it lies within a statistical distribution. Looking at Consumer Reports data for a few key parameters, and using 0 to 5 for CRs black (worst) to red (best) circles:

Engine Major:
Year: ----- '01 - '02 - '03 - '04 - '05 - '06 - Average
Jetta TDI: - 0 --- 1 --- 2 --- 2 --- 5 ---- 4 --- 2.33
Prius: ----- 5 --- 5 --- 5 --- 5 --- 5 ---- 5 --- 5.00

Engine Minor:
Year: ----- '01 - '02 - '03 - '04 - '05 - '06 - Average
Jetta TDI: - 0 --- 2 --- 2 --- 2 --- 2 ---- 5 --- 2.17
Prius: ----- 5 --- 5 --- 5 --- 5 --- 5 ---- 5 --- 5.00

Fuel System:
Year: ----- '01 - '02 - '03 - '04 - '05 - '06 - Average
Jetta TDI: - 0 --- 2 --- 0 --- 1 --- 0 ---- 2 --- 0.83
Prius: ----- 2 --- 4 --- 2 --- 5 --- 5 ---- 5 --- 3.83

Electrical:
Year: ----- '01 - '02 - '03 - '04 - '05 - '06 - Average
Jetta TDI: - 0 --- 0 --- 0 --- 2 --- 2 ---- 4 --- 1.33
Prius: ----- 0 --- 1 --- 0 --- 2 --- 4 ---- 4 --- 1.83

I think its pretty clear that at least according to Consumer Reports data set the VW diesel is not as reliable as Toyota's hybrid system.

Lastly, the price of diesel hasn't really been cheaper than gasoline in recent years. Since Nov '03 diesel has been more expensive than gasoline 190 out of 263 weeks or 72% of the time. Over that period its averaged 15c more. Since Nov '05, its been 130 out of 158 weeks or 82% of the time. In that period it averaged 24c per gallon more.

Rob

 

I put together a quick graph that I think pretty clearly illustrates the supply limit to the hybrid market last summer.



Hybrid sales have been pretty well correlated with gasoline prices, but you'll note that the sales dropped off significantly in April and May of '08 while gas prices continued to climb. As I understand Toyota had shut their line down in March to start getting ready to make '09s. They had built up a reserve based on current demand, that should have lasted through most of the summer. This was somewhat constrained by battery availability but they did not anticipate a big problem. Gas spiked in March and April driving demand through the roof, and Toyota was caught with far to little supply leading to shortages and wait lists all through the summer. By the time they got the line back up and got the '09s to dealers, gas prices started falling and demand softened. Based on previous gas price down turns, hybrid demand does not appear to crash, but rather return to a base level of steady growth. The current economic situation will probably dampen that base growth rate, but its interesting to note that sales in the last two months are almost as good as they were last fall/winter, while the rest of the auto industry is in the toilet.

Rob

 

A one mile commute? That's not even worth changing into cycling gear. Walk!
Yeah, I know you live in Minnesota. Some snow boots, a hat and gloves, and you'll be fine.

 

I agree. Been there, done that. The on-foot commute (to school) was actually rather refreshing. And in the dead of winter, I simply sought out some really warm & comfortable stuff to wear.

.

 

While there's no way to know at this point, I wonder what impact the pending revelation of the next Gen Prius in January, and it going on sale in April/May of '09 is having on sales of the remaining '09s. The '09 is a lame duck at this point, and, if I wasn't already a Prius owner, I think I'd keep my cash on the sidelines and wait to see what I thought of the '10 before making a decision.

It will be interesting to see the impact of both the release of the '10 and the Honda Insight on the hybrid market.

 

At <$2 gas, hybrids just can't balance the bottom line.
With the recession going, a 38-40 mpg gasser will be the most economically to own and run. The Big-3 would only survive with this type of vehicles in the near future.
Hybrids and EREV will be more for the long term.

I don't foresee we will go out of the global recession in the next 3 years. That means crude oil price will remain low until we recovers. Gas price will rise again then and people will start looking at hybrids.

 

There will be a major sales jump and possible shortages like in '04&'05 when the plug-in arrives. OH, and I want a plug-in pick-up and soon.

 

The Prius will continue to sell very well for one good reason: it has an amazing amount of interior space plus that great fuel economy.

I have a brother-in-law that owns one and the back seating space is more like what you get with a previous-generation Camry.

 

As i Understand the direction of car manufacturing to produce 'green' vehicles, hybrid technology is a step to the future of less reliance on oil, and corrupt 'oil related' politics that have stymied the green movement toward electric cars. If we look at hybrids being he total answer people are missing the point. To get from one side to another you have to build a bridge and hybrids are the bridge.
I think we will look at our Prius someday as the gas guzzler that was fun to drive.

 

Hi All,

The question is going to be how quickly the next high-priced gasoline cycle happens. If it takes more than 5 years, I fear hybrids may be stymied. But if we see even $3 gas next summer, all should be well. Just guessing here.

The Saudi's were on 60 minutes last weekend. They have Oil, but its no longer cheap to extract. Their goal is to get $75/barrel. And they have OPEC reducing production to try to stabilise at that price.

I think we should probably tax to maintain the $2.50/gallon pre-local/state tax retail selling gasoline price. And $3.00 Diesel. Add on $.50 for local and state (typically) and you get $3.00/gallon gas. With the moneys collected going into a WPA like program. The tax would be graduated, such that if prices exceed these values no tax is collected.

The main reason for this is not to promote hybrids, but to avoid what happened the last few years. It leaves it to the individual to select, or not select a hybrid.

 

I must be really strange.
I bought a Prius because I got world beating fuel economy and made no sacrifice in size, space, performance or handling over a similar size car.

I wanted a car this size, I had a 1990 Camry wagon and kept it till 2007 because there was nothing in the Toyota line-up the same size, the Camry like me got fat. Then I realised I had been overlooking the Prius because I thought it was slow and out of my price range. One test drive and I was hooked.

 

You do realize that the 2010 is supposed to get better mileage, even with its larger engine. Efficiency is more the point, not engine size.

Tom

 

+1

As a step in the right directions, hybrids do a TON towards development and production of cars that use no gas. First, they cause a ramp up in battery production and high efficiency batter technology. Second, they provide the industry with practical experience designing and using electric motors to power drive trains. And third, plug in hybrids will help get the customer accustomed to plugging in their car at night (we aren't quite to that third stage yet, at least not mainstream).

These three advances are critical towards the success of EV's and fuel cell vehicles. Radical redesigns of mainstream technology don't happen overnight - they take time and a logical progression path to achieve. After all, we didn't jump straight from 8-track to Blu-Ray, right?