Do you think this ten-year plan is doable?

times have changed

during the war, the depression, the whatever, america was largely made up of 2nd generation immigrants that saw firsthand what is was like to have nothing, to have to bust nice person just to be able to survive. that created an american who was willing to make a plan, work hard to attain their dreams, save money, do without things they could not afford, etc...

today, we have people who are 3rd, 4th and 5th generation americans. who never knew what it was like to have nothing. they are the children of the parents who had jobs during the greatest economic expansion in our history... an expansion so great, it could not last, and it didnt.

so, in order for people to live in the way they grew up, they borrowed, did not plan, or planned poorly. escalating costs, lower paying jobs, etc made the situation worse...

yesterday, the average family saved 8% of their income for "a rainy day"

today, the average person has $8,000 in credit card debit and all because they wanted something they could not afford and was not willing to save, plan or earn it.

yesterday, basic costs and needs were simple...easy to predict.

today, the average family probably has $10,000 in electronic gadgetry, and i bet most of it is not really needed or used that much. (i have a ton of stuff...used infrequently... paid a lot for it)... so we live on the edge, and now, the economy has a bit of a downturn and boom, people are overwhelmed because they had no margin to levy against even the slightest of misfortunes.

we need to start working on this solution, but i wonder where we will get the motivation to get it done. americans are no longer willing to sacrifice anything they have for any reason. the maniacal addiction to 15 mpg full sized vehicles is a prime example of that.

 

The short answer is YES! The longer answer is we probably won't!

Icarus

 

Yes!

However, as Tripp says reducing our dependence on oil will lower the price and probably spur more demand, in the short term, in the emerging regions of the world.

So, in the short term, in my opinion, despite or best effort there will likely be an increase in CO2 plus other emmissions until the economy of scale (read China starts producing the technology) kicks in and reduces the new technologies to levels which can compete with carbon based energy sources/technologies.

Using the prius timeline as a gauge I'd say it will take 10 years to transform our society and 10 more years to reach economies of scale which will allow transformation of other societies.

But...that is just my opinion.

 

Most discussions of "what shall we do" seem to demand that the solution be comprehensive, and completely right the first time. Let's just make a reasonable plan or two, and get started.

I opposed drilling in the ANWR for a long time, but after seeing some stats and perhaps more authentic pictures, I could be persuaded. But as law and economics are now, this will just be more oil in the global barrel. We need some way to embargo this oil from the global market and use it for domestic purposes only. Otherwise, it'll be bid up to world levels by demand from India and China. But I think we need to have this source developed for strategic purposes, whether we actually open the valve or not. Remember that WWII in the Pacific pretty much started over control of oil.

I think the big problem with expensive gasoline is mostly in the suddenness of its arrival. It's been $7-8 in Europe for years, but it's tolerated because they actually use the taxes that make it that much to build good roads. What if the government instituted a variable tax so that the price would climb slowly but predictably to $7 over a determined number of years, and stay there (plus inflation). We could fix some roads, build some light rail, improve some infrastructure, develop some alternate sources, and maybe even save a little for the next crisis. Oh by the way, I'd sure like it if all gas taxes were per gallon, not per dollar. Talk about lack of incentive to fix things.

Solar power is still expensive because it's still expensive to refine silicon, even though there is a plentiful supply, and because there are only a handful of factories doing it. The first problem will fall in the face of enough research funding. The second is a matter of priorities being set ... if there's a market, they will build them.

How about universal rooftop solar panels on homes in sunny areas? No, you don't have to be able to generate every watt you need. Buy them if you like, and lock in your savings. If that doesn't make economic sense or you can't afford it, lease your rooftop to the utility and let them put their panels there. It'll save the cost of transmission lines and losses associated with them.

Every new parking lot and suitably-topped building should be built with support and wiring for future solar panels, and some percentage should be required to be installed at time of development, with the rest to follow when the cost reaches $x.xx per watt.

 

Exporting countries are dealing with this now. They just massively subsidize their oil prices so that petrol in Venezuela costs $0.15. Iran, China, and India to the same thing and that's why demand has remained high despite the price hikes in oil. The downside is that places like Iran aren't getting too rich because the higher the price of oil the more gov't money has to go into the subsidy programs.

 

I think the ten-year plan is technologically possible (maybe not in ten years, but the exact number of years is really not the issue) but I think it is politically very difficult, because the decision makers have a very short horizon and a lot of power and a powerful greed-based incentive to obstruct a switch to sustainable energy.

The best thing that could happen would be spiraling fossil fuel prices, which would give an impetus to new energy companies without ties to fossil fuel, combined with a new generation of leaders, also without ties to fossil fuel.

I'm a pessimist, but not a doom prophet. I think it will be very difficult to steer the country in the right direction, but if we can break the strangle-hold that the present generation of dinosaurs (both Dem and Repub) has on power, then I think the technology exists to make the switch.

 

I am not sure I am up for re-election! Just kidding. Wish I was.

Doing a lot of what Godiva has suggested.

I agree, both parties need to do more. It shouldn't be, I wont have any thing to do with this because it wasn't my idea, have my name on it, or what's in it for me.

 

Things will change radically if Obama gets elected. They will have to, if this country is to survive as a Global competitor. The past eight years have been devastating. It's hard to believe how badly the Republicans have screwed up everything. And the Democrats so far have behaved as though they are powerless to do anything about it. What a mess. No leadership.

 

I knew it was Gore, but the conversation is ok! + People got to start some where, our elected officials aren't doing us any favors.

As for Obama, I honestly don't see him as the man to get things done. The party as a whole isn't healed. That's not to say he might get elected.

Reps won't do much either.

It isn't just the past 8 years. This started with the assassination of the Kennedy's.
IKE warned about the MIC.

 

Dave:

You hit it right there. A lot of folks now cannot understand how America could pull itself up out of the Depression. Sure, a global war helped, but it was also attitude.

Now we're a bunch of spoiled brats who always piss and moan until we get what we want, no matter who or how it's paid for. Some of us are different, but most folks born since the late 50's, certainly after the 80's, are a bunch of lazy, whiny, spoiled, brats

jay

 

There you are again Jayman, and have to agree here to!

 

Wow, I couldn't state it any better.

We are still drowning on our affluence. Until there is some REAL pain, there will be no REAL change.

... Brad

 

Me too. The problem is he only weighs 15 lbs (Digby).

Re: The Depression generation - My mom and dad both were young kids during the depression. We heard all kinds of stories while growing up. My sister used to have arguments with my mom, calling her a "tight old bitty".

But my mom and dad saved most of the money they made and even though neither had a college education, their kids went to college and now my dad has enough money to support him in his old age. His interest money is enough to pay his rent (food, transportation, cleaning service) in a nice senior independent facility.

 

True statement (so far). This puts a lot of us in a strange situation on Prius Chat. When some say the "pain is good" (as the change motivator), criticism results from some decrying "you like people to be in pain?".

 

I'm afraid the only hope for change is with the Democrats. The Republicans have become so hopelessly reactionary they don't even acknowledge problems--much less offer solutions. And a lot of the public is confused because the media just sits on the sidelines taking polls.