Chevy Volt news, again

Of course Volt is coming to market. That has never been the issue. It's:

How many?

Will we just get a token vehicle, a trophy? Or will they actually use the technology to replace a big chunk of their production? Will traditional models be phased out in favor of this?

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I think John1701a has something here.

The volt will come to market, but so highly priced and at limited quantities that few people can buy it. It will not be the people's vehicle (opps that is another automaker's line).

They are just using the Volt to use their GREEN badge in advertising. A badge that they have not yet rightfully earned.

I'll believe it when I can buy it. That is if I can buy the whole thing and not have to lease any part of the car.

 

>> Recharge at home cost will be 80 cents.

come on I was born at night just not last night ...

 

Or what I've been saying since the very first time I heard of the Volt: The question isn't will GM screw it up, it's HOW will GM screw it up?

 

If they assumed $2.00 per gallon, then 40 miles = 80 cents at 100 MPG.

When was gas at $2.00 per gallon ?

Either that or "100 MPG" is the mantra.:clock:

 

There will be a few hand built cars.....for lease....once you are approved.......

 

Right now GM is WAY behind the curve on its hybrids.

Soon GM will be right behind Toyota with a full lineup of very capable hybids and the Volt which if it can perfect the Li-Ion technology should actually leapfrog the Prius. No kidding.

However.... see Toyota's comments on Li-Ions. They are not at all certain but that 2010 time frame seems to be the common deadline for Toyota and GM and recently Nissan. We'll see. Nobody knows, yet.

But ignore the pricing banter. That's GM doing its PR thing for its faithful and to generate background noise when it makes its case in front of Congress for a $3000 to $5000 to $7000 tax credit for purchasers. If GM keeps humping that $40000 price tag then gets Congress to approve a $7000 tax credit for PHEV or EREV vehicles, voila... $33000 net for the buyer and $40000 net for GM.

As to John's point.... NONE of the PHEVs will be big sellers. IMO both the GM model and the Toyota model will both be window dressing at best. One would have to be specifically a well-to-do suburbanite commuter to get best advantage of the feature. These will not be every day vehicles for the unwashed masses. For the next 10 yrs I'd expect the current technology to expand to encompass the entire fleet of autos and crossovers.

Eventually the Li-Ions will prevail after sufficient real world verification. Toyota has NEVER been excited about PHEVs. Except for GM calling them out with the Volt I think that they wouldn't have made a large promotion of the technology. IMO they've estimated that PHEVs have a very very limited market as compared to the current ubiquitous Prius which anyone anywhere can drive.

 

The market demand will determine the production levels of the Volt. If gasoline remains at $4.00 per gallon (or goes to $5.00 or more), and the Prius continues to have a waiting list, and SUV demand drops by MORE THAN 50% (we are talking 2010 here), the concept of "adapt or become extinct" will force GM to gear up Volt production. There will be little market for GM's large ICE vehicles, and there will instead be LARGE demand for more hybrid and EVs.

As for the $40K price tag, or $33k? Currently, the Prius base sticker price is ~$21K. I have heard rumors that Honda is aiming for their new "early 2009" hybrid to have a sticker price that will be lower than the Prius, in an attempt to better target the mass/volume market. Toyota will likely respond be creating a variant of the "Prius line of vehicles" that will be competitively priced. In such an environment, GM will not be able to compete with a $40K vehicle ...
...UNLESS ... GM has hybrid cars also available to compete with Prius, and the Volt is considered a "special, even better" vehicle.

 

A typical selling price for this current Prius is about $25K. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Gen 3 with more HP, better FE and better handling priced on average about $26-$27 topping out around $30K. There's a couple of outside factors operating here.

Currency: with the US$ tanking our sales in the US are much much less attractive than other areas, Europe and Asia specifically. Even with Toyota increasing production by 60% this year we may not get 'our fair share' simply because each US sale is a loser. For example the Prius in the UK goes for about $37000-$40000 when converted to US$. How many Americans are ready to pony up this much for a Prius. From the manufacturers pov why should they sell a bunch of $27000 Prius' when they can sell a bunch of $37000 units.

Fuel: The increase in fuel costs is affecting the entire world. Every developed country on earth will want more Prius'. We will have to outbid the rest of them just as we have to outbid them for oil.

Ugly situation but it's just business. Profit rules, nothing else.

 

You guys are missing the point. Recharge at home is for the batteries. 40 miles on batteries x 200 wh/mile (estimate) => 8kwh at $.10 per kWH = 80 cents. (The Prius uses about 250 watt-hours to go a mile at 50 mph, if I recall correctly).

I disagree. I think there will be a demand for a PHEV, any PHEV from all the people who really want a BEV but can't get it, and from people just wanting one of the better hybrids currently on the market. Going 40 miles on (mostly) battery power only is only highly effective for people commuting less than 40 miles a day, which is the majority of all Americans. For the other people, the payback period will stretch beyond the typical 4-5 year ownership period, just like the Prius was when people bought it in 2004 and 2005.

Gas prices may temporarily dip, particularly next October, but we won't see $2/gal again. When people trade in for the next vehicle, mpg will be on the top of their requirements list. The times, they are a-changing.

 

Never considered the other perspective, eh? After all, greenwashing can happen from both directions.

If your commute is only a few miles, why in the world would you want to pay for 40-mile capacity?

Shouldn't a shorter range option be offered too? After all, its price would be more appealing to the majority.

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Maybe in the future it might change, but currently Japan and the U.S. are the two biggest markets for the Prius, by far. Something like 75% of all Prius vehicles are sold in these two countries (perhaps due in large part to the existing pricing structure), so they can't just ignore the U.S.

You've got a point. I was wishing for the same thing with the Hymotion PHEV modification. I want something for my winter commute, which for me is only 3 miles and is under 40 mph. Seems kinda silly to fire up a big car engine for that, but I can't justify $6K for their product to switch over to an EV only commute. An enclosed NEV could almost be had for the same price, if I could legally cross the main street, and had room in my garage.

 

My 2,000-lb Zap Xebra goes 3 miles per kWh with a relatively inefficient DC motor. I pay 6 cents per kWh. Therefore it costs me 80 cents to drive 40 mies. If the Volt weighs twice as much it would have to double the efficiency to do the same. I don't think they can get 200 Wh per mile. But it's in the ballpark, and I won't quibble about that if they actually build the car.

My understanding of the 100 mpg claim is that's what it's supposed to do on the highway after the grid charge is depleted and you're powring the car from the gas engine. I'm very skeptical that they'll achieve that. But I think it might be possible for Toyota to achieve that in a series PHEV. The difference is that GM is run by idiots, and Toyota is not.

Here's another important point:

Every Prius driver knows that careful driving can stretch your gas. An EV driver knows that even stop signs and red lights cut your range. GM is probably assuming 40 miles on level ground at 30 mph with no stops. Add a few ups and downs and the usual city stop-and-go driving and that might only get you 30 miles. More hills, 20 miles. When they state the range, we need to demand more information. E.g., What's the range on the EPA combined city/highway course. (For the Tesla Roadster it's 245 miles.)

 

But at $35000-ish consider who can't/won't buy.. the list is huge.
..those just scraping by driving a clunker
..those for whom a vehicle is a money sinkhole, who just don't want to spend good money for any new vehicle. They only buy used.
..those that want to buy a new vehicle but are on a limited budget that only allows them to buy a $15000 unit
..those that live in the center of NYC in a 47 floor high rise.
..those that live in dangerous areas where it would be impossible to secure a plugin connection overnight
..those that live in safe areas but have to park several blocks away from their domicile.
..those for whole $35000 is just too much for a new vehicle.

I fall in the latter category. I'm very very pleased with the current Prius. A new one 10-15% better would be great as long as the price was about the same. I don't see the economic benefit to have 25 mi gas free for a $10000 differential. I drive 145 mi daily so the first 17% of the trip would be gas free ( 17% fuel saving ) but not at a 40% price increase. I would buy a Gen 3 with NiMH technology for about $25000 again though.

 

Will you feel the same when gas is $125 per gallon? That's probably a decade away. And while the Volt will end up costing $40,000 before tax credits, a brand-new Zap Xebra is $12,000. Sure, it's a poorly built car, with limited range and speed. But in a decade, with gas at $125/gal my goofy little three-legged clown car is going to look mighty appealing.

There's lots of excuses for sticking with gas. But you might as well throw stones at the sky. Gas is on the way out, and those stones are going to come back down and hit you on the head.

 

Has anyone seen this company. There are several links to retro fit plugins for the Toyota Prius that have even been toyota approved. 100mpg

Plug-In Hybrids (or Plugin Hybrids)

 

Unfortunately, we can't vote with our wallet. So we have to debate the issue with speculation and claims about what the future will bring. One stategy is to:
1) Sell the Volt at a high initial price. This requires doing it right without too many GM shortcuts to get the price down. It's not going to be in volume for quite a while and the USA has LOTs of buyers who can handle the high price. The worst thing they can do is come out with a overcompromised vehicle.
2) See where the market goes. Specifically, figure out if a pure EV can be a better course than just a PHEV. OR
3) See if a real high MPG PHEV is the best course. OR
4) Both.

(Sorry, just dreaming here)

 

I've seen pics of that Volt concept car. Will it have the Prius' amazing balance of economy, reliability, usability, quality, etc, etc ... Best 'o luck GM.

 

Sometimes I have to look at those prototype pics of the Volt twice to figure out if it's the new Camaro or the Volt. Not exactly aerodynamic like the Prius, Insight, or EV1.

If the world as a whole is going to drive the design of the Prius, then why would Toyota increase the size (rumors) of the Prius and the horsepower? Europeans have narrow roads, and most people in developing countries would never use all that horsepower. Gasoline is expensive! No one in India who buys that car is going to drive around like Speed Racer.

As for pricing, even those who did not major in business know, most companies offer products for all price ranges, to target all markets. Some people can afford to spend $47K on a car, and some people can only afford to spend $17K on a car. I'm sure there will be different models.

Remember when in-car GPS first came out and it cost $3000 extra? Maybe a plug-in option will be ... nix that. it requires extra battery capacity. Maybe $10K extra.