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The Future Of Things To Come

Discussion in 'Gen 3 Prius Main Forum' started by AlexanderAF, May 8, 2008.

  1. AlexanderAF

    AlexanderAF New Member

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    As of May 8th, oil just hit a record $124+ per barrel. The president of OPEC and Goldman Sachs both see oil reaching $200 within the next two years, placing a gallon of gas at $5.00. Sadly, I do not think they will disappoint on that claim. In the 1st quarter of 2008, SUV sales plummeted 28% and sales of small cars increased 32%. Dealers are offering much less for SUVs as trade-ins, and some will not even consider them. The figures for the second quarter will be even more extreme.

    Since 1997, Toyota has sold over 1,000,000 Prius's. The Prius also enjoyed a 1st quarter sales increase of 26%, and Toyota says they are keeping up.

    CY 2009 may be an interesting year for hybrid and fuel efficient cars. Toyota is likely leaning toward a 1.8 liter hybrid for its 2010 model, with more horsepower and better fuel economy. Li-ion batteries are still an issue that may prevent it from being used just yet, but they are not far away...

    [​IMG]
    Possible 2010 (MY) Toyota Prius from Popular Mechanics


    Honda announced it will enter a new small hybrid car into the market for next year, which for a while has been dubbed the 'Prius-Killer'. At first, rumors said this would be a hybrid Honda Fit. However, Honda decided against this because of the Fit's already good fuel economy, and the popular appeal of a dedicated hybrid model like the Prius.

    Honda mentioned the possibility of releasing the CR-Z concept hybrid, but likely will use the FCX Clarity, already set to release in limited numbers this year as a natural gas vehicle.

    [​IMG]
    Honda CR-Z concept hybrid

    [​IMG]
    Honda FCX Clarity


    The release of such vehicles will pressure Toyota to appeal to consumers through either greater fuel efficiency, or vehicle affordability. While other hybrid models are available, none are a dedicated hybrid model like the Prius, and none have enjoyed the popularity of the Prius as well. The Honda Insight hybrid was the first to enter the market, but its small size was not practical for everyone.


    Toyota is also testing a car that may compete with the Smart ForTwo. The Toyota IQ concept car received a lot of attention in Geneva, and Toyota is already planning to introduce it to the Japanese market for CY 2009. It received a 5-star Euro Crash Test Safety Rating. Whether it will be introduced in the United States depends on how well it performs in our rigorous safety tests, which includes a 35-mph side impact from a large SUV.

    The IQ will be affordable, will seat 3 people and a child, and will get 'like-or-better' fuel economy as the Toyota Prius if the production model uses a motorcycle engine.

    [​IMG]
    Toyota IQ


    Either way, the only thing that is certain about the future is that gas will be hilacious. It seems the entire auto industry is finally realizing the market potential of economical cars.

    Sources
    fuelzilla.com/tags/toyota-prius/
    Honda Global Subcompact Hybrid | Hybrid Cars
    Honda CR-Z | Hybrid Cars
    2009 Toyota iQ revealed (updated)
     
    #1 AlexanderAF, May 8, 2008
  2. Bill Merchant

    Bill Merchant absit invidia

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    :welcome: Welcome to PriusChat, AlexanderAF! This is a great early post. Is this just synthesis, or do you have any special insight?
     
    #2 Bill Merchant, May 9, 2008
  3. Flying White Dutchman

    Flying White Dutchman Senior Member

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    sorry to say this but "the entire auto industry is finally realizing the market potential of economical cars" is only for the US the biggest part of the world already uses small eco cars for years.
    there are only small changes on better mpg and better aerodynamics.

    and Toyota really needs to get a small hybrid to compete with the new smaller Honda hybrid.
     
    #3 Flying White Dutchman, May 9, 2008
  4. DeadPhish

    DeadPhish Senior Member

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    Yep and I think that this will be part of Watanabe's announcement next Jan at the NAIAS.
     
    #4 DeadPhish, May 9, 2008
  5. dallas27

    dallas27 Love my Jeep

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    Quote... Either way, the only thing that is certain about the future is that gas will be hilacious. End QuoteReally?


    You are certain about future prices of gas in the U.S.?? Maybe you can say something is likely, but you can't be certain. Gas could easily drop 1.50 a gallon again in the next decade. Seems to me you want prices to be high. Agenda? I don't presume to be certain if you have one or not.
     
    #5 dallas27, May 9, 2008
  6. yams69

    yams69 Junior Member

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    The teaser shot of the purported 2010 Prius strikes me as being deliberately much sportier than the current version. To my eyes, it's even evocative of a Lamborghini (maybe closest to the Murciélago?). Hope that's close to what the next gen looks like. WOW!!! What a way to surpass the current distinctive look!

    Likewise, good on Honda if their upcoming hybrid looks as good as the FCX Clarity. It really seems like the manufacturers of hybrid-only models are expending a lot of effort in their aesthetic design to make them genuinely attractive to a larger population. Very smart marketing move, and everyone will benefit from seeing these good-lookin' cars on the road!
     
    #6 yams69, May 9, 2008
  7. TonyPSchaefer

    TonyPSchaefer Your Friendly Moderator
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    First of all, you might find this thread interesting:
    http://priuschat.com/forums/freds-h...soline-could-drop-50-cents-gallon-spring.html

    Secondly, that's not a very nice way to welcome a new member who took the time to pull together pictures from various sources and write an interesting post.

    Thirdly, welcome to Priuschat, Alexander.
     
    #7 TonyPSchaefer, May 10, 2008
  8. tbirdhs

    tbirdhs Tbirdhs

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    The IQ will be affordable, will seat 3 people and a child, and will get 'like-or-better' fuel economy as the Toyota Prius if the production model uses a motorcycle engine.

    [​IMG]
    Toyota IQ


    Either way, the only thing that is certain about the future is that gas will be hilacious. It seems the entire auto industry is finally realizing the market potential of economical cars.

    Motor Cycle Engine!! Sounds Like my Brother's 1959 GO-GO Mobile!!!
     
    #8 tbirdhs, May 10, 2008
  9. patsparks

    patsparks An Aussie perspective

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    Funny thread title.
    You couldn't exactly have the past of things to come or the future of things past now could you?:eek:

    Welcome to the fold AlexanderAF.
     
    #9 patsparks, May 10, 2008
  10. rfruth

    rfruth Member

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    I agree the next few years will be interesting, pushrods just aren't going to cut it as some figured out years ago, some just recently & some not yet - as for me personally a smallish inexpensive clean (hybrid or EV) commute / grocery getter is whats needed, come on Honda make Toyota work for it (& vise versa) ;)
     
    #10 rfruth, May 10, 2008
  11. AlexanderAF

    AlexanderAF New Member

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    I did not elaborate that this was for the US market in particular. You are correct!


    I respect your opinion as that could be a possibility. Perhaps I stepped out of place by saying gas prices 'for certain' will be hilacious. A better way to have stated this would be 'if trends continue, gas prices will be hilacious'. The US could start drilling in the ANWR, the US government could subsidize the cost of gas, maybe talk OPEC into increasing production, or many, many other possibilities. It is not a requirement for me that oil increases to fulfill a personal agenda, it is just that in my opinion the cost of oil will increase changing the US auto market to focus on smaller and more fuel efficient vehicles.

    I also read the article that gasoline prices could drop 50 cents per gallon by spring. That is a major possibility, but $3.25-$3.50/gal instead of $3.75-$4.25 to me still isn't cheap.

    My prediction that prices will increase (I could be wrong) is based on this: China's and India's economies are emerging and therefore the demand for oil is increasing as supplies hold steady. More and more people from around the world are buying cars, and as a result the supply of oil is being stretched thin. The current state of the US economy is a factor as well, but even a year ago when the economy was well, gas prices were still on the rise at an average rate of 50 cents/year.

    Also from my own observation, the price of the barrel increases sharply, then recedes a little only to settle at a cost higher than it was before. Over a long period of time, the average cost of the barrel has only increased. I can't think of any time when the cost of the barrel rapidly declined, and then held at that price (although I could be wrong). There have been events in the past that have influenced the cost of oil to decline, but the oil market adjusts for itself and prices return to normal.

    I think oil companies will act in their best interests, even at the expense of others across the world. Do I want gas to cost more? Absolutely not! I am driving a Pontiac GTO right now and I am paying $60 to fill up the tank! Of course I don't want to pay more. But I am also not an optimist, and therefore I do not see this problem of high gasoline prices going away.

    The only hope I see to this is to reduce the amount of gasoline I consume. When the time comes for another car (and gas costs what it does now, or more), I will be trading in my GTO for a Toyota Prius or a Honda hybrid. I am hoping auto manufacturers can build me a car to mitigate what I'm paying for gas!!! :eek:
     
    #11 AlexanderAF, May 10, 2008
  12. rsforkner

    rsforkner Member

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    >> as a result the supply of oil is being stretched thin.

    Only for the reason that supplies are being intentionally kept low. The worlds largest oil producers are limiting production for the purpose of keeping prices high. While all of the reasons regarding increased demand are true, the reasons for the shortage has more to do with limited production than limited supplies or increased demand

    FWIW!

    Bob
     
    #12 rsforkner, May 10, 2008
  13. DeadPhish

    DeadPhish Senior Member

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    Yes no one is certain but one can make rational judgements based on the known ( to us ) facts and trends. I'd feel pretty certain the gas/fuel prices will be hellacious relatively as compared to what they were a couple of years ago.

    My own personal predictor is that with slowly growing or diminishing supply of petro-fuel coupled with a growing worldwide population and worldwide development that demand will outstrip supply to the tune of constant price increases over the next 25 years. I'm assuming a nominal rate of 50 cents US per gallon per year. That's almost nothing.....until you look at what the prices will be in the future ( two scenarios )...
    $50 / gal ............ 10% increase annually
    2007 $2.85 .............. $2.85
    2008 $3.25 .............. $3.14
    2012 $5.25 .............. $4.60
    2016 $7.25 .............. $6.75
    2020 $9.25 .............. $9.85
    2025 $11.75 ............ $15.85
    2030 $14.25 ............ $25.50

    This assumes of course that some other massive source of fuel doesn't arise and that we continue in our love affair with the auto. And of course that there are no wars or political disruptions which make all of these 'stable' predictions possible. Throw in a healthy dose of instability and prices can go out of sight in a heartbeat.
     
    #13 DeadPhish, May 11, 2008
  14. pafoss

    pafoss Plug-in Member

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    Toyota, can the future please include a solar prius panel option? If it gets an extra 20 miles per (sunny) day, I wouldn't mind forking over a few thousand extra for it.
     
    #14 pafoss, May 24, 2008
  15. rfruth

    rfruth Member

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    Re: The Future Of Things To Come ?

    HCH vs Prius - about the same result IMO but the HCH blends in where the Prius is the opposite of a Hummer - very aggressive looking, you can spot either one. Can someone look into their crystal ball & tell if this philosophy will hold true for the upcoming models (~2010) ?
     
    #15 rfruth, May 24, 2008
  16. PriusSport

    PriusSport senior member

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    This scenario won't happen because OPEC won't let it happen. They will lose their market to alternative energy sources. Most of those OPEC reps went to Harvard Business School. They have to take the current speculation out of the price of oil. That will happen.
     
    #16 PriusSport, May 24, 2008
  17. DeadPhish

    DeadPhish Senior Member

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    Here is an interesting graph of fuel / oil prices from GasBuddy.
    Gas Price Historical Price Charts - GasBuddy.com

    Click on 6 yrs ... then overlay the graph of crude oil prices on the fuel prices. There is a HUGE descrepancy between the two over the last 18 months. The Crude Oil price increases are much much too fast in relation to the fuel graph. One or the other has to give.
     
    #17 DeadPhish, May 25, 2008
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