Toyota's 2008 Takeover Plans - Lithium, too

From the linked article:

This is the first substantive information on the subject I've seen in some time. Thanks for posting this, Prianista.

I had been speculating that the Prius name plate would be Toyota's "vehicle" (pun intended) for it's latest technology, for some time to come, changing with the new technology. This makes it look like the Prius will never be a PHEV, but that Toyota is working on a brand new model that will be. That's the car I want. A proper PHEV from an automaker that puts an emphasis on quality.

 

Interesting. I too had thought that the Prius would be the distribution model for new technology. I wonder what format the EV will take? Larger footprint (like RAV4EV)? Or, something more along the Camry size? If Toyota wants to pull ahead of GM, something along the lines of either a Camry or a cross-over SUV would certainly be the ticket. Maybe they will call it the GoAhead?

 

They're not talking about an EV. They're talking about a plug-in hybrid. I hate SUVs. And I don't need anything as big as a Camry. The Prius is the perfect size and body type for me. Not too big, but plenty of storage space with the liftback and the fold-down rear seats. I'd be happy with a Corolla-size liftback, but I'd settle for a Camry-size liftback. I'd buy a sedan, but would not be happy with that style. I probably would not buy an SUV even if it was a PHEV.

 

Granted that they are not talking about an EV for the moment. But how do you think that Toyota will be able to meet a corporate average of 35 mpg when they are wanting to get into the full size truck segment? Even the most optimistic projections for hybrid trucks are stuck at the 20 - 25 mpg point. Dial in a bunch of EVs and there is a cushion that is large enough to sell the Tundra (or its follow-on equivalent).

You may not like SUVs, but your preferences do not track the rest of the market in the U.S. Toyota is first and foremost wanting to be the dominant market participant in the U.S. (they are not shy about their goal of surpassing GM in sales in 2008). The only way to balance the objective of passing GM in sales and yet meet the future 35 mpg corporate average requirement is with EVs in their product mix.

 

Toyota no longer has to make small cars to offset large cars or small trucks to offset the Tundra. That is the big misconception about both the 2006 change to Truck CAFE and the new 35 mpg CAFE requirements. Both split vehicles into categories based on "Footprint" Each of these categories is given increasingly stringent requirements but the categories are never averaged. What is the end result? Manufacturers discontinue smaller vehicles because they are no longer needed for CAFE. This is already started to happen with trucks. Ford will be discontinuing the Ranger leaving it only with the F-Series. The end result of these CAFE changes will be a drop in real average fuel economy.

Also CAFE is not based on the EPA's new 2008 fuel economy standards but the original standard from the 70's.

 

Wasn't it toyota who was very recently claiming GM's plans for lithium batteried vehicles were not the way in the future?

 

funny that, I heard just the opposite, that Lithium power is the future for powering many things, including cars. Oh well.

 

It is the future, it is just Toyota was denying it for a long time.

 

well it now seems obvious that any plug in model will have a new name. sounds like it will still be available for 2009 though probably a mid year release im hoping

 

The one thing that you can depend on is that things will change. Whether they change for the better or not is an open question that I doubt can be answered for at least a few years. If there is a policy decision to really get serious about reducing vehicle emissions (and there are something like 16 states that constitute probably 60% of vehicle sales in the U.S. that have signed onto California's proposed tailpipe CO2 reductions), you will see some kind of fleet-wide averaging. Electric vehicles will come into the equation; it is just a matter of when.

 

daniel, i think the biggest reason that a new name will come out of the plug in game is that the initial offering will be smaller than the current Prius to enable greater range. some storage will be sacrificed to get more battery space.

but i also believe that a "family" capable sedan will also emerge only a bit later. not unlike the progression of the Prius

 

No.

 

My reading of the article was that a plug-in is still some years away. I hope I'm wrong. I could easily live with a smaller car than the Prius.

 

Regardless of what happens with plug-in or hybrid cars, I personally think that the next 5 years are going to see a lot of innovation coming from different manufacturers. GM/Chrysler/Daimler/BMW have one option on the table. I wonder if Ford will put the technology license (for which they paid Toyota $1 billion) to any use?

 

Was it GM said, we're not worried about Hybrids, they are a niche market and will never sell in any numbers?
I'm just making this up too.