He could be. I've never discussed it with him. I don't really care as there are forums that I'm a member of that I don't discuss with him. I know him online only. And which way does RealClimate swing? The info I look at is real enough, it's just BS to you because you seem to have made up your mind. That's your prerogative. I have not made up my mind so I look at both sides of the argument. Global Cooling "myth"? Do you remember the 70's? I do. I remember the magazine covers. Respectable magazines, not tabloids, mind you. I remember the news stories on TV. I was a kid and it scared the shit out of me. It was the popular idea at that time, whether or not it holds water now. GW is the popular idea now, and time will tell whether or not it is a man-made occurrence or natural climate cycles. If it is our doing, I hope it's manageable.
There was never anything approaching a concensus there. Even folks that are "denialists" concede that. Me too. I like to think of it in terms of risk mitigation. Right now I don't think we're properly mitigating the risks.
There's no concensus on GW at this time either. You have three camps: 1)Believe it's man-made. 2)Believe it's not man-made. 3)Skeptical that it's man-made, but willing to listen. I fall in the third category. I'm not a scientist, but I'm not stupid and can usually understand scientific papers. When I look at the evidence we have now, the history of our planets climatic changes, and some of the blowhards on both sides of the debate, I come to the conclusion that while it's possible our activities are having an adverse effect on the climate, it is just as likely if not more so that we are in a natural warming cycle like the ones that have happened in the past, and will happen again in the future. There is no debate that our planet is not constant, but rather shifts about from time to time, sometimes with undesirable results.
I think we're on the right track though. What I worry about most is blindly throwing money at a "problem" when we're not yet sure we can fix it. Look at the Kyoto Protocol for example. It will cost hundreds of billions of dollars to implement, yet it's impact will be near nothing, and that's assuming everyone participates. Here's a link to info on that. Link By the way, MegansPrius, this one's from YALE UNIVERSITY. I suppose they're crackpot BS'ers, too?
The link you provided is a reprint of an opinion piece from the Jakarta Post. The fact that you equate that with a data analysis from a university explains a lot about how you can hold the views you have. The fact of the matter is that addressing GW now, whether man-made or not, will have positive scientific and economic benefits in the long term for everyone. Pushing technology forward will lessen our dependence upon foreign oil. The technology will produce cleaner energy...even if we find it didn't contribute to GW 50 years from now we'll still reap the immediate health benefits of cleaner air. Compared to the amount of money we spend daily fighting in Iraq the war on GW is a pitance and yet the results of spending that money have every chance of being positive...whether GW is affected by man or not.
As efusco already noted, it is reprint of an opinion column -- and whenever you take an opinion column (which implies no fact checking at all) as fact, you're asking to be misled. The author of the Jakarta post column, Bjorn Lomberg, is a political scientist not a climate scientist and teaches at a business school. These Scientific American articles on him might help you understand the flaws in Lomborg's work: Misleading Math about the Earth and A Response to Lomborg's Rebuttal
I can't believe the link was to a Lomberg piece. What makes me even more sick is that so many people read his BS (and Steven Milloy) and believe it is true. It is missinformation like this that gets us into trouble and keeps us from acting in a timely and responsible manner. I swear if I ever start to really lose it I'd make these guys my first "target" for the simple fact they are harming everyone in the world with their lies.
Opinion or not, he raises some excellent points. As it stands now, man-made GW is still an opinion, not yet a fact. We can go on posting links and banging heads for another 20 pages if you like, right now I'm just going to agree to disagree. Blind devotion to a cause while ignoring all voices of dissent is the first step towards zealotry. I ask all of you to do something for yourselves; the next time you see a piece saying GW is a natural occurrence, give it a chance instead of immediately crying foul and branding the author a "denier". Practice on this one. Link It discusses the "opinions" of 400 scientists. They must all be crackpot deniers, right?
Actually, it's misinformation like GW alarmist claims that cause us to create kneejerk response legislation and throw money into a bottomless hole.
I didn't equate it with data analysis from anything. I knew it was an opinion piece. So what? As I just stated, the article raises some excellent points and for that reason it was worth posting. I agree 100%. I just would like to see it done rationally. The next time you read a GW piece, look at how it's worded. So many of them use phrases like dire, grave consequences, and immediate action that it's scary. This kind of journalism is designed to create an emotional response in the reader, and I don't need to tell you how stupid we can all be when we are acting on emotion. Look at F8L's post up above. That last line is an emotional response the likes of which I would never post on a public forum. I hope he's not serious.
Thanks for the concise reply. I've been out a few days and I see you still have to occasionally battle the misconception you are an enemy of GW rather than exactly who you say you are.....someone listening, but not accepting evidence because it is "required" of you. I personally think that is a good thing.....even though many are unhappy about it. The next followup point I would like to hear from you follows: Would you question that all the oil and coal that is burned, either for electric power (mostly coal) or for transportation (mostly petroleum) has the combustion products released to the air (as CO2) ? You can see where I am headed.....and it certainly is not down a path that belittles your posting in any way.
Man-made GW is an opinion. I'm not questioning that GW I a real phenomenon. That would be like ignoring the wind or the rain.
I would not question that. It's pretty obvious it gets released into the air. What I question is the effect of man-made CO2 on GW. It's been discussed elsewhere that the percentage of CO2 in our atmosphere that comes from us is actually pretty small. I've heard as high as 3%, as low as less than 1%. Either way, it's not a lot, and I'm skeptical that such a small fraction could create such a major change without other influences helping it along. If we can reduce our input, that's fantastic. I just don't see it doing a whole hell of a lot.
That actually is a very good aspect to question. Let's assume that 1% is the number and the effects are minimal. (Just keep bearing with me.) Next question, how much coal and gas is available to burn that is still in the ground?
Hello I have been lurking here for a few days now that I had found this site. I am looking for the best solution for me in a more fuel efficent mode of transportation. I am not doing this just for the environment. Frankly the main reason is to save money. In my business I do quite a bit of driving and since I work alone there is not any chance of carpooling being an option either. I came on this site to learn more about hybrids and there seems to be quite a bit here. What I can not understand is how so many seemingly well educated people can utter statements as the one I highlighted above. This is probably the most asinine statement I have read. A writer has an opinion that is different from this guys and so "He is harming the Earth and should be a target" (Never mind there is a first admendment right in United States that guarentees this individual Freedom Of Speech) If you sir were to "target" this individual how would you feel 10 years down the road if his opinions or even part o his opinions turned out to be sopt on true. Frankly on most other chat boards I have been on this would have gotten at least a temporary ban. As threats no matter how idle are just plain unacceptable (and should be). You or I have no right to make this guy feel phsically threatened for his beliefs or opinions. I also disagree with you that people are taking what he says and just believing him with doing their own research. People are for the most part smarter then what you are giving them credit for. Every person has the right to hear all sides to an issue and make a choice on what and how they need to react. We do not need a minorty deciding how to make the rest of us live our lives. Whether it be an issue on GW or any other issue. I believe there is GW. I do not believe man has played part in GW. Yet I still have an open mind and want to conserve and not pollute any more than necessary. I own a farm so nature and environment are very important to me. I realize this my indeed get me a ban as from what I have read my view seems to be more of a theat than the above quoted fellows. Also I am not Bigfoot, or Warhorse. Never owned a Corvette my passion has been of more exotic marques. Again I came here to look for information on hybrids. What I found was kind of appauling. Not just the threats but some threads suggesting some type of superiority because you own a hybrid. I have owned many cars in my life (some marques are even considered to be exotics) none have ever made me feel superior to any other person because they don't subscribe to the sam lifestyle I have chosen.
Honestly, I have no idea. I've heard numbers ranging to a 100-150 years worth, I've heard 50 years. You've piqued my curiosity, what are you getting at?
Thanks. F8L doesn't make me feel threatened. He put me on ignore before I even had 20 posts because he didn't want to hear what I had to say.
The threat as I saw it was directed to the author of the article you quoted. I would agree it was more than likely not something he would actually carry out either. Regardless though the threat is way over the top IMO.
I wrote out a nice long reply then thought better of it. You're not worth the effort really. Have a great evening.