Movies, Hurricanes and Global Warming

In the Boise area a curious thing happened. Riverfront property, as elsewhere, is sold at a premium. There are however, Building codes that place certain restrictions on building on flood plains. So a few years ago, when local developers pushed, the County redefined what areas were classified as flood plains so that expanded development could take place.

Once again commerce triumphs over common sense. Go figure!!!

 

Flood Plains

No rational person builds a home on a railroad track and hopes that a train does not come along. Flood plains are called flood plains because that is where a stream floods. The flood plain is part of, not separate from, a stream.

A "100-year" flood has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year (not once every 100 years). Agriculture and temporary structures, not homes and businesses are appropriate for flood plains. 100 Alaskan brown bears bite, but they do not bite in numerical order. Those who choose to live on a flood plain do so intentionally. Flood damage to strutures built on flood plains is deliberate negligence, not a disaster.

 

I guess I was trying to point out how silly (and somewhat outrageous) it is that disaster insurance is subsidized by people living nowhere near the disaster zone. Earthquakes on the West Cost, floods in the plains states and hurricanes along the SE.

I can understand why the Federal Government lavishes disaster relief upon these areas, since its in everyone's best interest that they get rebuilt and back to work (and paying taxes). But shouldn't the cost of living there be somewhat priced into their insurance and such? Do taxpayers really have to subsidize them?

Speaking of which, how often does the Federal govn't give aid to states for snow removal? I think I remember a disaster area being declared after a snowstorm or two last year (maybe the year before).

 

Re: Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

The annual north Atlantic tropical cyclone season lasts from 1 June to 1 December, the period when tropical sea-surface temperatures are at their warmest. The average number of hurricanes in the region each year is six, with four additional tropical storms never reaching hurricane-strength wind speeds. The yearly number of hurricanes since 1900 varies from one to 21.

Tropical north Atlantic factors include:

1. Sea-surface temperatures. The greater the El Nino-Southern Oscillation effect, the fewer the number of Atlantic hurricanes.

2. Stratospheric winds (at 20 km above the equator). A stronger easterly flow suppresses tropical cyclone formation.

3. Tropospheric windflow (at 12 km above the Caribbean Sea). The stronger the westerly flow, the smaller the number of hurricanes.

4. Surface-level Air Pressure. Atmospheric pressure over the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to the northwest; lower-than-normal barometric readings in May and June presage increased hurricane activity.

5. Moisture deficits in the subSahara. When summer monsoon rains in the Sahel are abundant, they seem to correlate with heightened hurricane activity in the nearby tropical Atlantic.

Intense north Atlantic hurricanes occur mostly (83% of total) during August and September. Periods 1820-1840 and 1895-1920 were generally dry in the Sahel. The period 1870-1895 was relatively wet. The western Sahel experienced prolonged wet during the late 1940s through 1960s, a distinct dry period occurred 1970-1987. Wet conditions are expected now and in the future in the Sahel.

Bottom line: more tropical cyclones and hurricanes of greater intensity.