Featured It turns out that Akio Toyoda was right

In terms of US sales the Rav4, camry, tacoma, and corolla lead toyota's sales in that order. Many car companies only record quarterly which is second sales chart.

2025 US Vehicle Sales Figures By Model | GCBC

4th quarter sales the camry picked up the sales that rav4 lost. Corolla was down. Both the tundra and tacoma had increased sales versus q4 2023 which led to toyota's profitability, but these don't sell as well as gm or ford trucks.

I would not say this makes any sense about akio toyoda being right about plug-ins. As a segment plug-ins grew much faster than non plug-ins.

 

2024 USA sales numbers:

Model 3: 189,903; down 14.4% YOY

Model Y: 372,613; down 6.6% YOY

https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Q4-2024-Kelley-Blue-Book-EV-Sales-Report-revised.pdf

Adults in the conversation/room have been saying the early 2030's timeframe for the major transition. Lots of pushback from the early adopter crowd who don't take in account just how big of an effort it actually is or how long it will take. We're still on gen 1 BEV products. Remember the first hybrids? No? Me neither because they weren't great. It would take the later gen 2 and 3's from manufacturers to get "normal" customers to the table after the early adopters have moved on the next latest, greatest thing.

 

The first SUVs(Explorer & friends) were body on frame. So were sedans at one time. We never referred to them as trucks. Yesteryears wagons would be trucks today if frame type was the deciding factor.

For passenger vehicles, which includes trucks up to the 1500 class, the car vs truck designation really only matters for CAFE. For anything with a hatchback or wagon body, whether a car or truck is up to the manufacturer. The Outback was a car until its fuel economy got too low for car CAFE targets, then it became a truck. Nothing changed to the actual vehicle. The Trax is a car with a whole inch of more ground clearance than the Niro, which is a truck.

With manufacturers juggling vehicle categories for models in order to game CAFE, the car/truck split for sales doesn't say much with station wagons that can't tow being counted as trucks. Then many full size pick ups aren't doing much more demanding than car duties.

 

Remember tesla is a global auto maker. Sales doubled between 2021 and 2023. The refreshed model 3 and coming model Y refresh seemed to slow the growth curve but sales only declined 1% world wide. This is primarily because tesla could make higher profits outside the US and US competition in the plug-in space increased.

 

The 1500 lb payload capacity of "trucks" has become a further joke with electric pickups. Bragging goes into well over 5 tons Towing, but with these Mongo size batteries some of the EV pickups don't even meet the 1.5 ton payload capacity. Good luck towing a 5th wheel when the slider hitch may weigh nearly 200 lb & the 5th wheel hitch pin another 1300 lb. You're already over the Silverado "truck's" limits. Then you figure driver & passenger or more passenger's weight? You're much much more over payload capacity limits - hope to God your grey & black tanks aren't full too.

 

So is everyone else in the convo. We're talking USA numbers here.

Folks have been saying 50% YOY growth for Tesla through the 2030's. I'm not really great at math but I think -1<50. Correct?

 

iirc - the Chevy Blazer had the removable top until 1975. Don't know which/who did it first, whether it was Dodge or gm. But they did have a 1500Lb payload capacity. The new electric blazer? Not so much. I wonder if they even call that a truck nowadays looks more like a station wagon.

 

Especially true here in the southern US. I wondered if the F150 sales were lower was because many of those people seem to now buy the larger F250.

 

At that time the Chevy Blazer was basically the same vehicle.

 

I have no idea who has been saying 50% YOY through the 2030s. Some simple math. The global market is around 100 million vehicles and Tesla is at 1.8 M. If tesla were to grow at 50% year on year until 2035 ( a lot soon than through the 2030s) tesla would be at 87 million vehicles/year, not exactly a possibility.

Tesla has experienced 39% average growth in the years 2018 through 2024 even with that 1% drop. As it gets more market share average growth will necessarily slow. I think 25% is a much better target than 50%, but even that will result in 20 million vehicles sold in 2035. If the auto and steel tarrifs stay in effect, the automotive market in the US is likely to shrink though, making 25% growth doubtful.

 

Bold mine.

"Okay, the story has been repeated enough: Tesla was supposed to be achieving 50% growth per year through 2030, yet sales actually declined year over year in 2024. Some Tesla fans want us to be positive about that, but even beyond the fact that sales didn’t match the longer-term forecast of 50% growth a year, they also didn’t match Elon Musk’s forecast from early 2024 that the company would achieve sales growth across the full year (something he said while discussing the company’s steep Q1 sales decline). If someone told these Tesla fans in 2023 that the company’s sales would decline in 2024, that person would be attacked and criticized, with all kinds of reasons why that wasn’t true and the person was just a hater."

How Many Sales Will Tesla Have in 2025? - CleanTechnica

 

Does that mean steel mills throughout the nation aren't going to be reopening - as well as tons of oar mining??

Although tongue in cheek, as we now value environmental more than some other countries (which means we are simply outsourcing the work) - it would be a pisser if we did all business in-house as it would likely rob a lot of other nation's capital - should we start doing all things here ...... in instead of having other countries do our filth for us.

 

I like tesla, though I no longer own stock there. Plu i'm someone. Don't have the urge to attack or criticize anyone either. Don't think anyone who says volume went down is a hater either.
When I look at the sales chart ;



There are several dips over several different years. Sorry, no hair on fire here. Would it mean I'm a hater if I suggest the dip is making much ado about nothing?
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