Consequences

Maybe there should be a "trap door" in the environmental forum, to drops all politically-contentious threads down to the politics forum. Which sadly is just about every one, these days.

 

If there ever was a political party more deserving of a backlash I can't think of one, especially what they're doing to women's rights.

And when women get mad and there's a backlash they aren't like men who talk about it and tell everyone what they're going to do, they just do it. I'm willing to bet there's a massive number of women in Trump supporting families that are voting Democrat this time around and the men in their family will never hear a word about it.

It's similar but the opposite of when Trump was first elected. People didn't put up Trump signs in their yard, nor did they tell the polls who they were voting for, but their vote was a huge disaster and the smart ones will never make that mistake again.

 

you get the government you deserve?

 

Who was that famous Senate Republican leader who was pushed out by his own party and in his final speech on the Senate floor he said "America has the government it most deserves."

And maybe its more than just the government but also all the incivility and hyperbole fanning the flames of panic in our society too? I've never seen a moment in my lifetime when both sides are so massively terrified of what each other represents and will do if they win.

 

i think it is media/social media driven. couldn't have been much different in lincolns day

 

Yeah... Modern day news is fast approaching uselessness the way the click bait headlines rarely reflect the content in the article. And just about every major new website you visits will dump 100 times more data as ads than actual data of the article. What's worse, those ads are optimized to get your attention, so you have to work really hard to avoid all that BS. I suspect that's why its so much harder these days for people to find things that are right in front of their face in the most obvious place. The quest for selling ads online is scrambling people's brains. .

 

Regarding the attribution of climate change to hurricane frequency/intensity...


"...Wind: Observed mean surface wind speed trends are present in many areas (Section 12.4), but the emergence of these trends from the interannual natural variability and their attribution to human-induced climate change remains of low confidence due to various factors such as changes in the type and exposure of recording instruments, and their relation to climate change is not established... The same limitations also holds for wind extremes (severe storms, tropical cyclones, sand and dust storms)..." (emphasis added)

Source: IPCC AR6 (Section 12.5.2)


"...We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes...." [last paragraph of Section 2B, emphasis original]

Source: Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory


"…Consistent with observed trends in the frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls along the continental United States since 1900, the updated normalized loss estimates also show no trend. A more detailed comparison of trends in hurricanes and normalized losses over various periods in the twentieth century to 2017 demonstrates a very high degree of consistency...." (emphasis added)

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0165-2.epdf?author_access_token=YzPX5AY3wNXqZivxiIKS9tRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NRVEOnilBpJRwF3Be85Z0slaoA7uck6x-IQZZyKqMOFndqa4RhEf9hu7u8q0B6NMcVQC5TRNolmSvYA09up0UgxHKxZOUhfmbRNXnUOgBouA%3D%3D%20%E2%80%A6


The Gulf of Mexico and most of the Western North Atlantic have had a relatively strong positive sea surface temperature anomaly for most of this summer/fall, but the global SSTs overall have had a relatively strong negative anomaly, approximately 1 degree C - Ocean Analysis | Tropical Tidbits

I don't see how AGW explains the positive SST in the Gulf, but not over the entire globe.

 

The fossil fool companies should be paying you for finding any details that can be used to doubt global warming. There's plenty of ways to prove something as variable as the weather isn't affected by climate change and the oil industry's profits and growth reflect that. It's what a small minority of climatologists and meteorologists get paid to do.

But the other 99.9% of those professionals are busy learning how an increase in methane and carbon dioxide combined with a loss of natural sequestration heats the atmosphere and changes the behavior of weather and by how much.

Specifically, the acceleration from tropical storm to a major category hurricane is much more rapid and much more severe than it used to be. Additionally, high overall temperatures means greater rates of evaporation from the ocean and the resultant increase in catastrophic flooding events.

 

So you think the IPCC is nothing but a mouthpiece of the oil companies? Really?

 

I think people like you cherry-pick data from the IPCC to deny the direct consequences of putting zero limits on long term sustained growth of fossil fuel production, which is primarily funded annually by trillions of taxpayer dollars from almost every nation in the world.

 

'Trust the $cience...'

 

What do you EXPECT?
This is the 'Environmental Discussion' forum.

Don't worry.
It will all be over with in about 10 days......well....maybe.
If not, there are always cat videos.

 

I don't know how you jumped to the conclusion that I am in any way defending fossil fuels with a post disputing media hysteria about two major hurricanes hitting Florida within a few weeks.

Chapter 12 of the IPCC Working Group 1 report is the summary chapter. If the data are "cherry picked," IPCC WG1 is the one that did it.

 

Ready....
Fire....
Aim!!!

 

I guess the fruit doesn't fall very far from the fossil fool tree, does it?

And by the way I have lots of friends in appalachia who's homes and towns were destroyed who would be very upset that you dismissed what they're going through as some kind of needless hysteria... I'm sure if your house was washed away by the worst flooding your town has ever seen in the history of the town you'd not be so happy with people who behave like you.

 

My understanding is that human induced climate change has not been shown to increase the frequency of tropical storms/hurricanes.
However, the speed at which they strengthen is likely a result of human induce climate change.

Per their most recent report:

This is from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf
Section 2.1.2 page 46.

That said, the IPCC tends to be very conservative.
The reports are good, but somewhat understated.

The sea level rise is more of an issue.
Sure, hurricanes get big splashy news stories, but the much less splashy sea level rise makes every hurricane, storm, heck even high tide, more severe.

 

Asheville's worst flooding in recent history was the Great Flood of 1916, when back-to-back hurricanes caused catastrophic flooding in western North Carolina.
As a matter of fact there were bad floods in the 30's as well......so much so that SOMEBODY wiped their backside with the US Constitution and kicked off the 'New Deal.'
Tis an ill wind that blows no good, and thus, in the LATE thirties, one of the alphabet soup of new agencies that dot.gov created is a little something that I like to call the 'TVA.'

US History, folks.
We're still a relatively young nation.
Would it kill you to at least learn some of the highlights?

I can't tell you what causes the people in NC to become "very upset by" because even though I've been through numerous storms and storm recoveries - Hurricanes are fundamentally different in the interior than they are on the coast.
They're a LOT worse.
Hill people tend to pride themselves on their flinty self-reliance, even if they sometimes use it to hide abject poverty.
MY Spidey-senses inform me that maybe not quite as many of them are the 'get very upset type' although I understand that the Ashville area had a lot of new folks since the last time I went through that area in the early 2020's.
What I can tell you through direct experience is that people who are struggling with 4-wall issues, 6 weeks after the water recedes have little patience with folks who are 18 states away trying (poorly) to score political points with their disaster.

 

But @wxman says its just a bunch of hype and hysteria and he has have far more proof from the IPCC that there's nothing to worry about other than how we're going to increase production to ensure sustained profits for the oil industry who has taken over the international gatherings to address climate change. I mean why would @wxman and the oil industry lie to us?