Tesla stock

A medical emergency happened in the crowd, which delayed the start of the presentation.

x.com

x.com

 

It appears to be an independent Super PAC that - like so many of the incoming ads on both sides that are continually bombarding us w/ emails phone calls & textings.
Nothing (out of the unexpected) to see here .

 

I was never a Musk fan - thought he got rich off government subsidies and other peoples' ideas. But, I gave him credit for execution - something I'm very weak at. And, the bottom line is always about execution.

He's grown on me however - mostly because I see him standing up for himself in the face of hyperpartisan attacks from the socialist media. The minute he quit supporting Dems a couple of years ago, the media flipped. Whereas he could do not wrong for years, they now look for anything to exaggerate and blame him for.

What's the truth? We'll never know. We can't know, because truth can no longer be known. Every potential source of truth has been obviously and irrefutably corrupted. Politicians, the media, academia, the intelligence communities, the legal system - all have been caught lying so many times that an objective scientific study would surely conclude that we shouldn't believe supposed objective scientific studies. There is simply not a rational, logical, and persuasive case for believing any source for anything significant.

I've been saying that for years all over social media and, every year, the pile of undeniable evidence supporting my skepticism has grown larger and larger. Now, only in the last 6 months, have I seen such warnings in popular media. We you don't have truth, you got nothing.

It's that threat to truth that made me come around to Musk. His purchase of Twitter and making it open to all opinions could save society. It is definitely a zoo on the app, but it's a necessary zoo. There is so much that you can only learn on X, and that's sad. That he doesn't care about losing money on the purchase, that it's all about freedom of speech, makes him a hero for me.

And snagging that rocket yesterday was pretty awesome.

As for his CEO skills - I doubt all those quirks he allows us to see are any worse than the quirks the typical billionaire CEOs hide behind their fake public personas. I like real people, not plastic ones. I'd rather bet on the risk I know than the one I don't. Again, an objective scientific study of the history of corruption among CEOs and the observable Machiavellian tendencies of that personality type would undoubtedly conclude that we shouldn't trust any of them. That anyone chooses to trust one and not the other, like anyone who thinks their political party is awesome and the other one is evil, is just an effect of confirmation bias from whatever information sources you've chosen.

 

I guess, but really, all I did was mention an ideology, used it as an adjective - I didn't advocate for or against it. It's just objectively true that many of the negative stories about Musk have originated from news sources with a socialist bias.

And leaving that out makes any Tesla stock conversation meaningless. Tesla IS Musk. Musk is the brand; he is the product that investors are buying. There was never a way to justify it's stock price on the fundamentals; there isn't now. It could only be justified if one believed in Musk; you had to believe, against all odds, that Musk could execute.

Today, that brand value is under attack - for political reasons. To try to ignore that in an intelligent conversation about the company's value seems pretty silly to me and a waste of time. Too many people are not buying Tesla cars (not the stock) because of all of the negative PR the attack media has created. It'd be like talking about Trump Media stock without mentioning his legal issues.

I actually expect that there are statements regarding Musk's actions in the Tesla earnings reports - if there's any real reason to suggest it will impact the stock price. So again, kinda hard not to discuss what's in the ERs. But yeah, if the mods need me to refer to that segment of the media as "cosialists" or some other silliness, I can do that.

Otherwise, I have to disclaim any real knowledge of the share price, P/E, etc. If you say that investment calculation can be separated from the Musk brand and still justify the stock price (if not now, then when you bought), I won't/can't argue with you, but it doesn't seem to make sense.

 

You just perfectly identified your problem. You think Tesla is a car company.

 

Certainly, for some companies, and those like Tesla, R&D investment is meaningful data. Again, I'm not a market investor and only have a layman's knowledge - seemingly an old, outdated layman. Maybe it was a different time, but P/E always seemed like the most important data - what are you paying for a dollar of profit? IIRC, for many years multiples above 6 were generally considered over-priced - a dollar investment bought $0.16 of profit - a fair return for the risk vs. safer investments.

Now, Tesla is trading at a multiple over 61; people are investing a dollar to buy about $0.012 of profit. You can get a better return in a money market account. Based on the fundamentals, cost of money, interest rates, etc., it's silly to buy Tesla. Any investment at a 61 P/E is speculative at best. At some point in time, the P/E has to align with reality, so investing now is like jumping into a Chinese fire drill and hoping you'll jump off before it stops.

And yet, Bob, you seem to be trying to make sense out of it based on sub-fundamental data - R&D investment - as if the share price has a logical, mathematical basis for its price rooted in its operations and execution, and you're just drilling deeper into those solid numbers to unlock the hidden predictor. I mean, I get that - I've seen you in this forum for many years - you're a smart analytical guy, and I have no doubt that you would approach this from that perspective.

I just don't see it that way. I see numbers that make no sense and know that investors are buying for some other reasons, almost surely not reasons one can find in the earnings report. And it's not hard to figure out what that reason is - Musk. So, far me, the Tesla play is a bet on Musk, and it's a longish-term bet, but it could pay off big. The key - politics.

If Trump wins, Musk looks awesome. He'll have his pick of roles in the administration - and the one that's been hinted at - overseeing a reform of the bureaucracy to be more efficient - is exactly his core strength. Trump will role back Biden's regs that hurt Tesla. The Musk brand will be bigger than ever.

If Trump loses, not so much.

But, I always wonder why some of the guys here don't invest in Prii. I bought that Gen1 at an auction last month for ~$1200, put $900 in it, and sold it for $3500 a couple of weeks later. Even if it took a year to sell, I don't know many investments with that ROI and so little risk.

Right now, there is a historic opportunity to profit from used cars - the FL hurricanes have dumped hundreds of thousands of cars in the auctions. While you might pick up some cars cheap that weren't actually flooded, the easy play is to pick up low-mileage wrecked cars now, then buy flooded parts cars for nothing to fix them with. The hurricane cars aren't wrecked - if you go with a popular model (doesn't have to be Prii, but the high-value cats make them a no-brainer), you can probably fix 2-4 wrecked cars with one parts car.

I'd be all over the G2s right now, looking for low-mileage cherries. The flood cars have just started showing up in the regional auctions - they will be coming strong for another 4-6 months. Forget Tesla stock for now - make your decision on it Nov 6.

 

This has nothing to do with Musk’s politics.

Musk was Tesla.
He helped the company when it desperately needed it.
He brought in great people to help bring the vision to fruition.
He drove forward the Mission statement when many (including the Media) laughed at him.
Under his leadership Tesla produced the world’s best selling car.

This is all groundbreaking and should be applauded.

Now, Tesla is lagging behind inferior products by the competition in the USA market.
Elon is railing against regulations on X/Twitter and seems to be following through with actions that affect Tesla.
Elon seems to believe we are headed for a deep recession and slowed down/paused the building of a factory in Mexico.
Eliminated the PR department, making Tesla less transparent.
Promoting a car with no steering wheel or pedals, due out “before 2027”. In 2027 that car wouldn’t be able to be sold in the majority of the USA.
Is endorsing and helping a candidate who thinks climate change is a Hoax and has stated he will cancel EV incentives and add incentives for ICE vehicles. This is the antithesis of Tesla’s original Mission Statement.

Tesla 3rd quarter had gains in China and Europe. They had a loss of sales in the USA. I believe the cause is just how visible his X/Twitter antics have been.