Featured Elon Musk’s big lie about Tesla is finally exposed

Doesn't used car value turn a lot on accumulated mileage? We average only 9K miles per vehicle - even after a few cross country trips ... so if we'd kept our awd 2016 model S - it'd only have ~ 72K miles (or 24,000kWh's of juice used) right now. But it was back when supercharging was free (ie usage baked into the new purchase).
But even at 20¢/kWh for home charging - that would have only worked out to ~$4,800 on fuel over some 8yrs.
or .... $600 per yr .... 11½ bucks a week.
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Yes, but also year.

On Cars dot com there's a 2016 Model Year Tesla Model S 70D with 62,394 miles, clean, no-damage-ever CarFax report, for only $19,777 in VA.

I don't see any info if that includes the $4,000 federal tax credit or the $2,500 + $2,000 VA incentive into that price. Although if it were more than $25,000 before any incentives it wouldn't qualify for the VA incentives, so at most it might be $23,777 before incentives.

 

Even I wouldn’t touch an 8 year old ev

 

I think there are a lot of unknowns. When I had the Leaf there were a lot of people who speculated that we were just around the corner from being able to obtain cheap, high-quality battery upgrades. Well, that never seem to have come to fruition. Instead, the price of changing out the OEM battery (which is what most, if not all EV manufacturers do if the battery fails or loses too much capacity) went up from some $5,500 to some $8,500, and that was for the 24kWh battery.

It looks like prices have come down again for a dealer to swap out a battery. But like I said, right now it doesn't make much sense to get an older EV to work on DIY style. It's not like you can just go down to the local junk yard, grab a good battery from a wrecked Tesla Model S, and throw it in yourself. It's also not like you can just cheaply and easily rebuild one with all brand new parts and expect it to last as if it were brand new. It's not like you can just go get a JDM import battery from Japan and throw it in for a couple thousand dollars either.

Just googling "how much does it cost to replace a Tesla Model S battery" brings up "Estimates suggest that the batteries for the Model S cost between $12,000 and $15,000. After labor charges, the total repair cost is about $20,000 to $22,000." The great unknown is how long the original battery is going to last. Because if it does fail, then you just might have a repair bill that's more than the car is worth. Hopefully more and more people have great experiences in their Teslas and other EV's and we of the poorer class all get the confidence to buy cheaper, older, used ones.

 

Depends on what you want the car for. If it is just for local trips, a car that started with over 200 miles of range will still have a large amount of capacity at 8 years.

A right to repair law would open the battery data to give a better measure of what the battery health actually is. Should also tell you if the car saw a lot of fast DC charging.

There is an unknown at the 10 year mark. The Li-ion in most EVs have been following the capacity loss seen in the lab. There is a drop of up the 10% in the first couple of years. Then the capacity loss is essentially level for some time. Ten years out is when to expect more capacity loss. Don't think we have enough data from actual cars to accurately predict how much that will be. But 50% capacity on a 250 mile car is still 125 miles for daily use.

I wouldn't get an 8 year old BEV for long trips. For my commute, I'd could do it. I also would have a second car, and not be in a bind if the battery does truly crap out in a few years.

 

i'm not concerned with battery capacity, that can easily be tested in the real world. i'm more concerned with other problems, parts (new and salvage), repairs, service, electronics and etc.

 

I have a certain degree of concern for all of it. Like I've said before, depending on who you ask, EV's seem to be either so good they seem too good to be true or the worst thing ever. But I'd rather hear all of you EV owners state the pros and cons you've seen with your EV's personally, and let me know if you'd recommend one for someone like me.

Also, if I'm contemplating getting an EV as a second owner, one that I'm going to drive around used one with no warranty for the next 7 or 10 years or more, it would be nice to hear from others who have already done that and what their experience was like.

 

there are bolt owners from 2017 and well over 100,000 miles with no unusual issues, and just like here at priuschat, you get people with problems signing up for advice.
we have bob wilson reporting on his model 3 experience at 120,000 miles, and he freely admits to the problems, but he is highly capable of sourcing parts and doing his own repairs.
i don't think there is any way to know long term reliability percentages on any model, just like we have no idea how many gen 3 head gaskets have blown, even though we have anecdotal evidence of a good number.
personally, i'm a get to the end of the warranty and dump it kind of guy. even with our 6 prius and hycams, i didn't like the idea of going beyond warranty, and i'm still not happy with the dearth of qualified mechanics outside (and inside) the dealers.

 

I do see pros to that. I was the "buy a car that doesn't run, fix the head and radiator, and drive it for 5 or 7 years until I decided I needed a bigger car" kind of guy. That also has pros and cons.

What I'm having doubts about anymore, with the exception of the quickly depreciating EV's, is if the whole "buy the 3 to 5-year-old car" philosophy still holds water. Some of the cars on Edmunds true-cost-to-own calculator are actually more expensive to buy used than to buy new. If it depreciates $9,000 in the first 5 years and then another $9,000 the next 5 years, a car buyer isn't getting any benefit from buying used.

 

The incentives are part of the 'depreciation' of the cars.
This includes the incentives available in a nearby state even if not available in yours.

The bounce back from the pandemic is another issue that is affecting the depreciation.

I would not take the 'evidence' of depreciation in the current environment as something that is long term.

Hell, my Model Y appreciated in value between 2020 and 2022 (or there about).
I certainly didn't expect that to be the new normal (and it wasn't).

 

Well, that just might be true. If I grabbed a brand new base Model 3 long range it would be some $29,640 in my state after all incentives, whereas the cheapest used long range Model 3 (2020, 51.5k) showing up on the Tesla website is $25,200 before incentives, and it's within driving distance from where I live. If it's elegible for the federal used car incentive, it's $20,200, still over 2/3 what I could buy the car for new. BUT! Tesla has a 1.99% APR loan deal going on for new, so the monthly payment would be, for 72 months, $470 for the new one or $358 for the used one, if I don't put anything down (assuming the used car is elegible for the $5,000 federal used EV credit, if not it's $447 per month for the used one).

So I see now that, at least with a Tesla, it might also not make any sense to buy used, as a new one will likely depreciate around the same, or even less, than a used one.

So did my 2013 Avalon apparently. At one point around 2022 it was worth what I had paid in 2018 for it according to Kelly Blue Book.

For better or worse, I do think that the death of the econo car will help keep used car prices up. In less than a year from now, if a person has a less-than-$20k budget their only option will be buying used. Right now, if I wanted to buy a $17k car, I could get a brand new Nissan Versa. Next year, it will be used or nothing.

 

For all the talk here about tco from time to w, I have never considered it in 50+ years of car buying, and I wonder how many people do.
I have always bought what I could afford.
For 15 years, that was old clunkers that I learned to work on myself.
For the last 35 years, I have bought new and never financed.
But I’ve never bought a luxury car, it’s an appliance to get a job done.

 

So far, I have 82,000 miles on my '17 Bolt. A new battery was installed at 58,000 under the recall, so the battery is now covered up to 158,000. Since I've had no other issues, it works for me.
There's a GM dealer in NJ that specializes in used Bolts and other EVs and he has some great bargains that are also eligible for the Fed kickback.
Call Cranbury Buick GMC And Schedule A Service Appointment

 

I foresee the Model 3 getting better and better as they age. There's just so many of them out there, so much aftermarket, DIY community, parts availability, etc... Reminds me of the Prius community we have in a way. I think someone recently just got the first Model 3 past 500k miles, but I can't seem to find the post at this moment... Several running around with 250-300k+

 

the 3's haven't been around that long. Even the S's are now at just a decade. Yes, it's anecdotal but

Tesla Model S still running with original battery and motors at 430k miles.
Then there's this 10yr old S - the guy does a ton of driving & it has over 1.2 million miles (polished off a few traction packs & {high performance} motors in his day) ... iirc - the drive units are warranted with unlimited miles so he's made a killing.
Tesla Model S road warrior passes 1.2 million miles in 10 years
.

 

There is also an age factor to battery aging in addition to use. Some older Prii with low miles end up with battery issues.

 

is that true of lithium as well?

 

Yes.
The 30% SOC recommendation for storage is all about reducing the effects of calendar aging.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1149/2.0411609jes

 

I noticed in a tablet I just bought that they recommend setting a normal charge limit of 80%. Save the 100s for trips.

 

Would that I could "lie" like Elon Musk.

How about you?

Bob Wilson