I will NOT be following this advice. My short thesis was based on deteriorating fundamentals, in particular (1) revenue growth slowing, (2) margins declining, (3) a softening EV market, and above all (4) an expensive valuation with limited upside and had plenty of potential downside My opinion: "revenue growth slowing" - having revenue, profits, it more important than "growth." Tesla competition has a serious problem with no profits. "margins declining" - Musk has ordered a +10% reduction in staff, a cost savings measure for future margins. "a softening EV market" - markets are larger than one sector and everyone is having trouble selling cars. "expensive valuation" - my opinion is Tesla product development is awesome and effective. Bob Wilson
The “softening EV market” is interesting. EVs aren’t growing as fast, but that market is still growing much faster than the overall car market. I’m have no plans to sell at this point.
there's decent competion now, which is what elon wanted. while the market is still strong, there's less market available to them.
You have to remember that Elon isn't going to be eating Ramen for supper even if TSLA stock falls to a nickel per thousand shares, so you have to take HIM out of the equation. (THAT is why SpaceX wasn't a publicly traded company the last time I checked.....) The EV market is waxing and waning with the economy (and government kickbacks...) and only FOOLS bet the farm on specific stocks or short term investments. I you'd bought a thousand shares of Amazon when I opened my account (in 1998) where would you be NOW?
What I do is evaluate my stocks roughly ever 6 months to see how they are executing their business plan. If the price is down, I sell, take my loss, and move the residual to the stock that performed best. It is a Bible investment strategy: “For the kingdom of heaven is like a man traveling to a far country, who called his own servants and delivered his goods to them. And to one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one, to each according to his own ability; and immediately he went on a journey. Then he who had received the five talents went and traded with them, and made another five talents. And likewise he who had received two gained two more also. But he who had received one went and dug in the ground, and hid his lord’s money. . . . Then he who had received the one talent came and said, ‘Lord, I knew you to be a hard man, reaping where you have not sown, and gathering where you have not scattered seed. And I was afraid, and went and hid your talent in the ground. Look, there you have what is yours.’ “But his lord answered and said to him, ‘You wicked and lazy servant, you knew that I reap where I have not sown, and gather where I have not scattered seed. So you ought to have deposited my money with the bankers, and at my coming I would have received back my own with interest. Therefore take the talent from him, and give it to him who has ten talents. ‘For to everyone who has, more will be given, and he will have abundance; but from him who does not have, even what he has will be taken away. And cast the unprofitable servant into the outer darkness. There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.’ Seeing disappointing performance of my 401k, I withdrew it and invested in: gold mining stocks (i.e., in the ground) Tesla ARK funds After a year and several quarterly reports, the gold mining stock was converted to Tesla and I've never looked back. The same with my ARK investment. I currently have some money in "Ree Automotive" stock but if Tesla stock dips before the shareholder vote, I will convert that to more Tesla stock. Bob Wilson
people who put elon in the equation are generally of two sorts. the first recognizes his genius and ignores his public statements. the second denies his genius and are critically offended by his public statements. (there is a third we call shorts) but they don't deal in reality, they major in fud.
Still isn't and Musk replied this yesterday to a Bloomberg article about SpaceX looking in going public... “SpaceX has no need for additional capital and will actually be buying back shares,”
The old joke, 'there are two kinds of people in the world: those who separate people into two groups, and; those who don't." <grins> My variant on the two kinds of people: Those who remain married Those who don't A couple aged in their nineties went to see an attorney to get divorced. The lawyer asked, "Considering your age, why?" She said, "We waited until the children died." My Holly of 43 years a month before I found her: She caught me and a happy fish I was. Take lots of pictures as they will be the ones you will remember best. Bob Wilson
+++ Though a thousand shares back then, now nearly a quarter-million shares after stock splits, was already fairly big money. My widowed mother used some life insurance proceeds to seed accounts for each of her children, back in the 1960s. Originally intended as college funds (before today's college savings programs were created), but we worked summers and found enough scholarships to not fully consume our shares, so the accounts persisted and continued growing after college. Nothing remotely resembled that Amazon hypothesis, in either initial investment or performance, but time and steadily continuing additions throughout our paid careers, did well enough. Under this long term plan, there is no need to "beat the market". The long term rising tide of any broad market index, does well enough on its own. Now all my "work" is unpaid volunteer work, as I feel like it. Even P45 would have done much better under this plan, e.g. if he would have just put his massive inheritance into an S&P500 index fund.
Index funds aren't really gambling. It's using peer-review in the marketplace to vet the young'uns and replace the olds.
Which is exactly why individuals who invest to grow their money and fund their retirement use Index Funds, ETF's etc. Starting this strategy when you are young and allowing the money to compound and grow over 20 to 30 years is a sure and proven strategy to build wealth during a lifetime. The proof is in the number of millionaires now in the US. How Many Millionaires Are There in the U.S.? - Ramsey (ramseysolutions.com) "There are millions (that’s right—millions) of Americans out there who worked, saved and invested their way to becoming millionaires. Shoot, you might be living next door to a millionaire, and you don’t even know it!" Here's How Many Millionaires There Are in America | The Motley Fool "By far the two biggest sources of wealth for most millionaires, though, are investments, particularly in retirement accounts, and their primary residence." 33 Incredible Millionaire Statistics [2023]: 8.8% Of US Adults Are Millionaires - Zippia "79% of surveyed millionaires haven’t received an inheritance, and just 8% attended “prestigious” private universities (62% attended public or state schools)." Gambling would be for money you will/are probably going to lose in the long run, not something you do to fund your family's needs and see you through retirement.
Read an article the other day that said that net worth is the critical measurement and they were not talking a single million for retirees. Being in mid (I hope) to late retirement, there is also Social Security and other retirement income streams to consider. If you had to replace those income streams with an investment in an annuity, what would those cost. I maintain that cost should be added to your net worth. And what is the worth of actually having health insurance and long term care insurance. Not cheap but cuts the risks of catastrophic spending needs down considerably. We retired 18 and 17 years ago, worth twice what we were then but in inflated dollars. 56% inflation so not really twice. But considering most spend down during retirement, not bad.
Putting all your money in a single stock is very risky, and if done without any research could be called gambling. That said, investing in individual stocks, with diversification is not gambling. Many people prefer avoiding the fees, forced capital gains or losses, or lack of control that can come with funds. None of what you mentioned ‘makes millionaires’ (although it is sound advise). What makes millionaires is living below your means.
Source: Elon Musk's potential $56B pay package rejection predicted to tank TSLA stock Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi predicts that Tesla shareholders will not approve Elon Musk’s $56 billion 2018 pay package this week. At the annual general meeting, Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s 2018 pay package this Thursday. Sacchonaghi forecasts that TSLA stock might drop by nearly 5% if Tesla investors approve Elon Musk’s pay package. . . . I had been worried as the stock price had kept steady at ~175. But this morning, it looks to be crashing. Buy low, I'm looking forward to adding to my shares. Bob Wilson
I'll have to fall back on my pensions and Social Security. But the foolish fund managers will have to explain how their vote to force Musk out led to their substantial loss of investor fund value. Bob Wilson
At this point I think it would be good for Tesla in the long term. That said, the share price would likely tank in the short term. I voted ‘yes’ for the compensation package. This package is for what Musk has already accomplished. There was not a vote for ‘give Musk his walking papers’. If there was, I would have voted ‘yes’ to that as well.
it's hard to know how much musk's innovative genius and drive would be missed. especially as competition heats up. i tend to err on the side of caution.
Elon should announce, "I'm keeping my shares. Thanks to those who voted NO, I am taking a Tesla vacation." Then let Twitter/X identify every fund manager who voted NO. When the share price hits a plateau, announce, "My Tesla vacation is over." Bob Wilson
