Featured Tesla Autopilot recall probed by safety regulator following new crashes

How are you figuring 99%. Note that my travels are not anywhere close to 99% within Western Washington. It is certainly under half. Unique road mile-wise, it is far under.

I don't want a sub-Level-3 system that is "good enough" to lull drivers into automation complacency or loss of mental engagement or situational awareness, without very robust driver monitoring. The aviation industry is well aware of this problem. Various Tesla crashes in the news very clearly show problems with driver overconfidence and disengagement, including fatally running down a motorcyclist near here a couple weeks ago. (Initially claimed with AP, not FSD, but no public followup since, and both police and news reporters where showing blaring clues of subject ignorance.)

Performance in foul weather and reduced- or low-traction conditions is extremely important to me, and covers much more than 1% of my miles. I'm just not seeing anywhere enough discussion about this, except a news item recently linked here showing an uncomfortably large fraction of Tesla ADAS crashes being related to this. For me, this is much more than a corner case.

And as explained in other threads, no existing EV covers even close to 99% of my routes and driving weather needs, due to inadequate off-Interstate recharging infrastructure. That is why I recently traded up to a PHEV, not EV.

I want to see the real federal certifications, not just exuberant fan-boi embellishments. Demonstrated fatality rates of under 1 / 1e8 VMT require vastly more data than any human can ever expect to get from first-hand experience.

 

A 20 minute comparison of the Mercedes and Tesla systems:

Playback at 1.5x is still understandable to save time.

Bob Wilson

 

And now lets test on some faster Autobahn cruising speeds.

Yesterday I was testing the Toyota own TSS 3.0 with LTA (so level 2) while driving close to Vmax of 180kmh (110mph?) and I was surprised how good it worked.

While I realize that most people around the world dont usually drive that fast, it still shows how less Tesla trusts their sensors given they just turn off Level 2 driving at higher speeds while even the highly conservative Japanese companies dont have any concerns.

 

So we're back to this NHTSA document

https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf

Which states that there was one confirmed death while in FSD between August 2022 and August 2023. During that period, it was close to your 1 / 1e8 VMT but since then, with the one month trial given to millions of vehicles, FSD VMT has sky rocketed and the sky has not fallen.



Maybe detractors should just shut up until they have a chance to put some miles into it?

Here's a simple scenario where FSD is a driving aid:

So often, while on the highway with the adaptive cruise control engaged, I suddenly realize I'm going slower than my set speed? Why? My car reached a car going slower than me and gently adapted its speed to it, as it's designed to do. With FSD, instead of this happening, it would put its flasher and give me a ding it's about to change lane. A quick glance at the fender camera (which shows a much wider view than the mirror) and I let it proceed. Don't want to? Push the stick in the opposite direction and it stays there.

Here's one where it might save a life:

Stopped at a red light, you wait your turn to go. Light turn green, the car behind you honk. You look in your mirror? Come on pal, it just turned green, then you proceed to go, forgetting to check for red light runners and BAM, there was one. Look at Wham Bam Tesla/Dash Cam YouTube channel and you'll see plenty of red light runners causing accidents. With FSD, no matter what, it's always looking and would have seen that red light runner that you missed, and since it's a miss, it won't be part of any statistics.

That 99% of the roads is what FSD can travel onto, almost all public roads and even private unmapped dirt roads like I've shown. Here it is again if you haven't seen it.



Unlike the "0.01%" that this Level 3 can travel on. Of course, those percentage are just educated guesses and as that side by side comparison video shows, it's Level 2 ADAS sucks, big time and that's where most of the driving aid will happen.

 

So, Tesla are careless by letting FSD in the hands of "untrained" drivers and Tesla doesn't trust their technology by limiting its use to a speed of 85 mph (135 km/h). Make up your mind people. Personally, I wouldn't trust any ADAS at 180 km/h. It's a speed at which any failure of road following could end catastrophically within a split second.

 

Not to mention a blowout at 85 versus 100+ mph
Watch What Happens in that scenario when the 1st 100+ mph blowout occurs. THEN you'll see law suits fly againt the manufacturer.
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I've started analyzing the FARS data with the 2019 accidents involving Teslas:

• 40 accidents
• 15 fatalities

This initial data allows looking at any make, model, and model year for all accidents with fatalities. There is enough data to identify specific crashes. For example:

• Florida, December 18, 2019, two fatalities
• Source: https://www.sarasotapd.org/Home/Components/News/News/1791/5080?npage=13&arch=1

The fatal traffic crash investigation conducted by the Sarasota Police Department Traffic Unit involving two vehicles that happened on Longboat Key on Wednesday, December 18, 2019 is completed. The Sarasota Police Department has a memorandum of understanding with the Town of Longboat Key to assist with any serious or fatal crash investigations.

The crash investigation concluded that a marked patrol vehicle from the Town of the Longboat Key Police Department, driven by a Longboat Key police officer Jeffrey Vogt, was traveling south in the 2100 block of Gulf of Mexico Drive when the marked patrol car collided with a Tesla. Vogt applied his brakes and attempted to steer his patrol car to avoid the crash.

The Tesla was driven by Charles Barancik, 91, of Longboat Key. Charles’ wife, Margery Barancik, 83, of Longboat Key, was a passenger in the vehicle. Charles died the night of the crash and Margery died the next day as a result of injuries sustained in the crash.​

This allows investigation of different hypothesis such as:

What are the relative number of fatal accidents and vehicle occupant fatalities?
How has this changed over the years 2019 to 2022 (current end of data)?
How to Teslas rate with <TBD> Make/Model/Year?
Did making AutoPilot standard show an effect in the accident data?
​

There may be other metrics available as I've just started investigation of the FARS data. You' all are welcome to join the effort.

Nice writeup in Wiki: Tesla Autopilot - Wikipedia

Bob Wilson

 

I'm curious. In a previous post you showed the same (or similar) video, and said that you had to take control from the FSD system because it was going faster than you were comfortable on your private dirt road.

1) So where did your car get the information that told it to use a private dirt road to get to your house the first time? How did you tell the FSD the speed that you found acceptable? I'm assuming that at least some guidance was offered to the program.

And how do you determine which roads FSD can't travel on, given the proof from this video that it can (apparently) choose un-mapped and unpaved roads? That can be a scary thing to do. In the late 1990s we were renting a Hertz car with the Neverlost GPS system while visiting San Diego. At one point it offered a choice of faster route VS shortest route. After choosing "shortest" we found ourselves routed to a spot where we were overlooking a canyon with our destination just a short 3 miles away. We were also looking at the sign that advised us that the fire road ahead was closed 6 months out of the year and not recommended without four wheel drive.

2) If the FSD system works 99% of the time, it's making a mistake roughly every hour and a half. How do you catch those mistakes if you are not staying alert enough to notice that you've slowed significantly due to slow traffic ahead?

3) Using the turn signal to cancel an unsolicited lane change seems to be counter intuitive. I can see some level of confusion happening as a rookie tries to countermand the action. Are there other ways to cancel it?

4)On a similar note, Is there a way to flip the logic when passing slow traffic? The last thing I want to do at freeway speeds is to try to guess the magic handshake needed to tell the car not to pass because of something blocking the left hand lane ahead. Does it disconnect when you hit the brakes?

 

I was talking about typical level 2 and autopilot (there is no FSD in Europe anyway). Yes, an ADAS helps alot as it judges distances better and can break much faster. If it uses long distance radar that is...
As for road conditions - if there are issues there will be a speed limit so you can pretty much trust the road on the autobahn. You only drive fast if there is no speed limit.

A blowout can occur with or without ADAS? Not sure how it is relevant?

 

1) You're mixing two posts I did. The first one is my private dirt road where it drove slowly (20 km/h) and without intervention. The second one is an about 10 km public dirt road where it drove at around 60 km/h and it wanted to take a curve (that would have been fine on asphalt) at 50 km/h on loose gravel. There, I intervene. That's the post you're referring.

Seriously, on my private dirt road, there was no lines, just vegetation. How it determined where the road was, which was also displayed on the screen, I don't know, but it did.

As for most roads, they are delimited by lines, curbs or shoulders. My guess is that is what it uses. It seems to be all done in real time and the fact that it drove on my private road seems to confirm that. A nice effect of this is any road closure or changes will not have it drive off road, like people used to do with old GPS.

Some users complains that it hugs the right side of the roads, I find it does that on wide lane. My guess is it thinks it's a unmarked two lanes and leaves rooms for cars on its left.

2) You catch those mistakes by still being focused on the driving, but maybe concentrate on other tasks than keeping the car centered on the road, like watching for deers that could jump in front of the car at a moment's notice, or give more attention to that vehicle on your right that seem to encroach on your lane.

I didn't say I stayed behind him for a long time at a slower speed, but the the car slowed down while I was talking with my passenger. That's one distraction that is very common while driving.

3) Another method to deactivate the lane change per say? No, put you could also hold the wheel and prevent it from changing lane, which would also deactivate FSD, or deactivate FSD altogether by pushing the drive stick up or braking.

4) Yes, like I stated in 3, braking deactivates FSD. You can also select one of the three FSD mode, Comfort, Normal and Assertive. That will also, amongst other things, modify how often it will try to keep its speed. Plus, within each drive, you can also tell it to limit the lane change to a minimum. In that mode, it will stay behind a slower vehicle and you'll have to initiate the lane change yourself by using the turn signal. FSD will still be the one doing the lane change when safe. You could initiate it with a car right beside you and nothing will happen until that vehicle has cleared your side.

Hopefully that answered all your questions.

 

What's the TSS V3.0 detection distance? If it's 100 metere like V2.5, at 180 km/h, you'll have covered that distance in just two seconds. Better keep your eyes peeled on the roads because those 100 meters will come by very fast.

If you plug in 180 km/h for speed and a "thinking distance" of 0 meters (like you said, ADAS reacts fast) here,

Car Stopping Distance Calculator

The stopping distance is... 190 meters. That's the average stopping distance for a well maintained car with an alert driver on a dry road.

Think about that when going at those speed.

 

I dont know what the Denso radars are used in the new Toyotas and what specifications they have but newer radars go up to 300m. Here is an example from a German brand - used in many German cars and they write about use cases up to 250kmh. 250kmh is btw the vmax of the gentleman's agreement many brands follow.

Definitely! ADAS is no excuse to be not fully alert - at least not until we get level 3 but I highly doubt they will ever go over 130kmh (the advisory or suggested speed limit) - alone for liability reasons.

 

I asked around and it looks like it's still 100 meters. Selectable between that and 60 meters.

 

When Tesla dropped support for the radar in my Tesla:

• Lost the car before the car detection. Apparently reflection from the street identified cars in front of the car I'm following.
• Reduced false alarms in the next release. Optical detection was improved.

FYI, Tesla has a patent for a higher resolution, car radar. I've not seen a public posting that Tesla is bringing radar back.

Bob Wilson

 

"i do miss mobileye tech used on earlier Teslas ... which also incorporates lidar as a source of redundancy.
.

 

Does than mean you are on the cusp of getting such an official Level 3 certification? Great! I was hoping it would arrive during my driving lifetime, it is already a half decade tardy from earlier enthusiast expectations. Approximately when should we expect an official announcement from the feds?

As stated earlier, I don't want a sub-Level-3 system that is "good enough" to lull drivers into automation complacency or loss of mental engagement or situational awareness. I want the real Level-3-certified system.

My remaining life expectancy, or any human life expectancy, is simply not long enough for individual personal experience to demonstrate that level of performance. It must be done by aggregating a huge collection of data.

So you have it backwards. Instead of detractors shutting up, the fan boys should put up, get that data collection analyzed, and get the certification rolled out.

 

Do you have sources? Apparently Denso introduced Radar with ~205m 2012 - current Toyota models should use something much more advanced similar to other brands:
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2012/11/denso-20121121.html

 

25m, 30m, 45m, and 60m are the nominal ranges of the four selectable following distances for TSS 3.0 DRCC. Toyota doesn't specify the effective range of the radar, but it's most certainly much higher than 60m because the system is not going to be able to identify what a target is if it's right at the limit of its range. Toyota also specifies that DRCC works up to the upper limit of the vehicle's speed (obviously, since it lets you use it). As to whether that's safe, well, I'm in the US so I feel unsafe on every road with other vehicles around.

 

You don't need a Level 3 certification to know that FSD used in conjunction with an attentive driver is already way safer than driving by itself. That, by itself, is a no brainer, and yes, more should be done to make sure the drivers are attentive and that include all manufacturers, not just Tesla.

Most accidents (deadly or just fender bender) are caused by inattentive drivers. If the 2021 data can be transposed into this year, there were roughly 3000 monthly car related death in the USA alone, with 65% of them caused by generally being distracted or "lost in thought" (daydreaming) I haven't heard of any claimed FSD related death or serious accidents since April 1st (the start of the free trial for millions of Tesla owners and I've put about a thousand km in FSD myself since then). If there would have been at least one, the media would have been all over it, like they are with anything Tesla related. What we don't know however, is how many accidents it saved because well, "nothing happened".

Of those 3000 monthly deaths, 11% were caused by cellphone usage. I think your energy would be more well spent advocating for smartphone companies to do more to prevent the usage of their (deadly) devices while driving and the NHTSA should investigate all manufacturers that do nothing to prevent the use of a cellphone or other distractions while driving. Imagine if all of them needs to recall all their vehicles to install a driver awareness system... Yeah, that will never happened.

But for drivers caught 'daydreaming' or distracted, FSD can be a life saver, to them and to people around them. Unlike those drivers, FSD is never daydreaming, always looking out through its eight cameras for potential threats. Yeah, if you're 'daydeaming' or distracted while it makes a mistake, it might end up in an accident, but that accident might have happened in the first place because well, you were already daydreaming. Does FSD encourage more daydreaming? Maybe, but the currently available data do not point at it being a systematic problem, it's actually the other way around. The data points at less deaths and crashes with FSD engages per million miles than the general public. Still, one death is one death too many and it's something that needs to be evaluated, but that's no reason to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

I think you have a misplaced or exaggerated fear for a product you have no actual experience with. You should fear all those inattentive drivers that have no system to save your bacon instead.

 

As a 81 year old driver, using a 91 year old driver in an example just doesn't make sense to me.

I was driving through Raleigh to a mother's day dinner from my son's house. A light turned red. I screeched to a stoop because no way I could have crossed the intersection or even entered it without the red dictating what I did. My Tesla driving passenger got very excited. The ICE SUV behind me likewise slid to a stop and then blared his horn at me. Christmas, if I couldn't enter the intersection legally , then how could he.

After dinner and a Pepsi, I drove home using TSS 2.0 at 2 MPH under the posted 65 to 70 speed limit on a 2 lane divided highway. Without incident. Except when I showed my wife a 5 second hands in the air which freaked her out.

I think I prefer being on control or supervising than using FSD. I really liked the ride in the Y I got on another leg of the journey. But whan I put in a set of golf clubs in his trunk, it disqualified any notion I had of buying a Y.

So I guess I now go shopping for tires. 33k but the edges wearing down and I want Michelin's. CC2. When it the next sale?

And using a dirt trail as an example just strikes me as BS.