Featured Very few EVs qualify for the federal tax credit as of 2024

There is a difference between:

• EV Models - there are perhaps a dozen models available
• EV sales - how many individual vehicles are sold, Tesla smiles

A lot of EV models are not very good and failed to make the IRS list. But these had very low sales numbers. In contrast, the Tesla EVs still on the list sell in large quantities contributing to the profits we will learn about "after market close on Wednesday, January 24, 2024."

Culling the number of failed EVs is happening and as a TSLA stock holder . . . GOOD! Too many of those crappy EVs are giving all EVs, including Teslas, a bad name.

Bob Wilson

 

One thing I dislike is that if I had the money to buy any EV in the world, I'd want the Model 3. But the Model 3 now costs more than the Model Y. Of course the Model Y already sold better than the Model 3, even when the 3 was cheaper.

So, at any rate, there will probably be a plethora of used Model Y's available some day, but the Model 3 may end up like the other cheaper cars that weren't very popular when new: Used economy cars like the Toyota Yaris, Honda Fit, and even the still-produced (but soon to be discontinued) Nissan Versa are all extremely expensive. It's hard to find one that's much cheaper than new MSRP even if it's 5 years old. I wonder if that will happen with the Model 3.

I can't predict the future, but by the time I end up needing another car something tells me a used Model Y will be my next car even though I don't like it very much.

 

Fair enough, here is the most recent reality:
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023

Q4 2023

Code:

            Production  Deliveries
Model 3/Y      476,777  461,538
Other Models    18,212   22,969
Total          494,989  484,507

Bob Wilson

 

38% growth in 2023, 40% growth in 2022, which are great numbers for any auto company, but ... plug-ins grew faster in 2022, tesla grew faster in 2023 (34% for plug-ins (bev+phev) world wide from all companies). Costs for tesla will likely continue to go down, but profitability per vehicle will also go down as competition catches up. This is good news for consumers and the environment.

 

I don't mind percentages as long as the original numbers are shared. For example:

• 1 sold in 2022
• 2 sold in 2023, 200% growth ( 2 / 1 as percent growth)
  • alternate: 100% growth ( (2 - 1) / 1 as percent growth)

There are at least two ways to calculate a percentage growth but seldom do we see how it was calculated. It is always safest to include the raw numbers used to calculate a percentage.

Bob Wilson

 

The similarities may not hold up well.
The Tesla Model 3 sold about 130,000 units in the 4th quarter. The Nisan Versa sold about 24k all of last year.
I would be surprised if Tesla doesn’t get the full credit back for the Model 3. Probably within the next year or two.

That will bring prices into something that makes a bit more sense.

 

Tesla's world wide market share dropped to around 12.2% in 2022, but rose to 12.9% (estimated) in 2023. In the last 2 years byd was the leader in 2022 and likely grew market share like tesla. We don't have their full year sales yet. In the US tesla accounted for 59% of the plug in market in the first half of 2023 and likely over 60% in the second half. Last year was the first year tesla had enough capacity with the austin and berlin plants coming on line, but they are adding more capacity.

 

Just as Sonys last generation tubes went into everything from computer monitors to other brands of CRT TVs.
Sonys random industrial base IP spreads around into all sorts of places.

The argument of making one model of car forever results in low Volume cars like the Model X and S

I view Tesla as doing what Ford did with model T, most members of society eventually want differentiation outside <5 choices

 

I'd like a Tesla, but with a Sony Trinitron tube for the infotainment center display. (Actually it would have to be an Indextron because a Trinitron would go crazy with the colors as the car moved). Also I want AM, FM and Weather bands

 

But Tesla makes more than the S and X now.
And they will make more than they do today in the future. They have no problem selling the 3 and Y though, so focus is on expanding production. Without the production, they couldn't sell more even with more choices. More choices would just end up with them charging more for each model. That would help current owners resale, but not the segment expand.

And the brand engineering plan needs another brand, which takes a lot of cash to launch.

 

and they're working on the model 2

 

I will probably wait for the Model 1 before I buy my first Tesla. LOL

But before that happens, they will have to open a service center near me, at least within my state.

 

they aren't looking to sell to everyone. yet

 

Almost comical. EV's will hopefully not need tons of government sponsorship as time goes on. Subsidies ideally will be done away with in the future. From this article - it appears we are on the road to doing away wirh government handouts of other people's money for transportation.

The world's best-selling car: What makes Tesla Model Y so successful? | Global Fleet.

If an electric car can knock off the Corolla as number one best seller, aren't we there yet?
.

 

When I bought my Model 3 March 2019, the Federal tax credit was down by half. Six months later, no more tax credit. The next years until the Inflation Reduction Act, Tesla had explosive sales growth. A superior product needs no subsidy.

Bob Wilson

 

Agreed. I would pay $35-40,000. For the right ev

 

What many don't understand is Tesla rapidly changes the guts and seldom the 'eye candy'. So when I replaced the functional, underbody shields, they were injection molded plastic instead of the plastic infused mats. If the body were transparent, these core changes would be obvious.

Bob Wilson