2023 Global Hurricanes and Typhoons

Abandoning a N Atl focus this time. Later posts will summarize what is expected for N Atl this year. Briefly in advance ... average. El Nino (ENSO positive) is generally associated with low action in N Atl, but ocean waters seen unusually warm everywhere, so surprises are surely possible. I was in on the surprise of 1998...

Anyway 2023 has had Ilsa in Australia, Mocha in Myanmar Bangladesh, and Mawar in Guam as large ones so far. Each has been unusual in time or space, but one-year action is not climate change. You know.

Mawar has passed Guam and is generating divergent model forecast paths

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02W_geps_latest.png

Assuming central among those, recurvature and offshore Japan etc. A lot of near-surface ocean mixing happens, so this might be a apt time for Fukushima to send their radioactive water out there. Dilution. But I do not know if all needed approvals have been given. They may hold their water a bit longer, but 200 hours later will be a dilution by mixing party party party.

 

NOAA predictions (outlooks) are here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Slide1.JPG

Others will come along soon I suppose.

NOAA past performance can be seen or derived from here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.shtml

 

H. Calvin approaching Hawaii

HURRICANE CALVIN
Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Track Forecasts
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#03E

It will weaken before arrival.

 

Baja California and USA California to the north, say hello to Hurricane Hilary (just one l). Winds will be mostly expended by the time of border crossing, but an unusual amount of rain is predicted.

Whatever does not flood away will have swell desert floral displays later.

 

This is a most unusual QPF:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1692314575

==
Mexico operates an astronomical observatory in Baja mountains

https://www.astrossp.unam.mx/en/

Which I have had the pleasure of visiting. I expect them to to be hit hard by this both wind and rain, and maybe lose road access.

 

Meanwhile in the North Atlantic, not much is going on. By the end of next week, one of 3 global models shows a strong compact storm coming off 'the right spot' in Africa. Other models show nothing.

But storm watchers are doing Hilary right now.

 

You will not soon see another rainfall forecast like this:

HURRICANE HILARY

Remember Bristlecone pines? Those trees hovering on the edge of death for thousands of years? Something like this may touch them a few times. Or only once.

 

Yes Tropical Storm Idalia will bring a lot of rain to FL panhandle Weds/Thurs. Then GA, SC. Trop storm/hurricane distinction is based on wind field and minimum pressure. A trop storm can rain more than a hurricane, if it sets up right.

 

Typhoon Saola has already looped of N. island of Philippines, another loop (S or Taiwan) is predicted here

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09W_tracks_latest.png

Loops are interesting.

 

I suppose Hurricane Hunters are bumping around in Idalia and dropping dropsondes right about now.

Various models show a wide range of predictions from staying as a TS, all the way up to cat.3 at landfall. That's a lotta pasta.

FL panhandle airfields (mil and civ) ought to to be reposiitoning aircraft now? Jacksonville and Tampa look like tossups. Hoping they don't toss up.

Watercraft harbored along there - sail west. Unless operators are driving away instead. So let insurers deal with it?

Drivers, avoid using gasoline contaminated with diesel. Now a thing in FL, new innovation for this event.

 

Upper level wind shear is leading diff models to diff predictions.