Featured More hybrids and less EVs to reduce emissions

My Toyota ev battery is eleven years old and seems a long way from expiring

 

Depends on what you consider the future to be. For myself, 20 years would be wonderful. For the planet, we have to stop burning fossil fuels at some point.
Most liberals I know believe it should be policy driven, not personal.
They all drive gas guzzlers, but will happily switch when government tells them to

 

OK,thank you. I much better understand your position now.
One final question, do you consider this only on a worldwide basis?
In other words, can a propulsion method be ‘mass adopted’ in one country, but not another?

 

Yes, its always going to be region based. Correct me if im wrong, but most cars in europe are all diesel last i checked. Because refining diesel is cheaper than gas.

Also some areas like Montana or Alaska will never be able to have EVs. Majority of the vehicles driven and sold in those areas are 4wheel drive due to snow.

So really at best i can see certain states and cities mass adopting EVs but i cant see it going further than that. People dont understand the physics behind how much electricity these EVs actually need to move. The all EV hummer is more expensive in electricity than just gas, and not to mention several lbs heavier. So what exactly is the advantage of it being EV when gas ends up being the cheaper fuel source and more convenient? Not to mention vehicle can sit in the garage for 30 years untouched and itll still drive if all the wires are still properly connected.

 

Imagine if we all drove hummers

fortunately, gas hummers are really efficient

 

I’ll bet cold countries like Norway will never adopt ev’s

 

Most cars in Europe, to my knowledge, are indeed diesel. That is changing rapidly though.

This data comes from Europe Posts More EV than Diesel Sales January-April 2023 - Businesskorea.

Some counties have already reached your definition of ‘mass adoption’. Others are on a trend to do so in the near future.

Your belief that ICE vehicles have cheaper fuel & are more convenient may be the reason you have trouble understanding how EVs can reach mass adoption.
For some portion of people, fueling an EV is cheaper, and for some portion of people, EVs are more convenient.

What fraction of people that is, will partially determine how quickly EVs reach ‘mass adoption’.

 

Great sense of humor

 

Free market, buy what you want and can afford.

Bob Wilson

 

Spot on. I fall under the belief that once more EVs reach mass adoption, fuel cost for electricity will rise, not fall. I fail to see how more demand on the electrical grid would bring electrical costs down, because as of now if everyone drove EVs, we simply would not have enough electricity to support it all and places like cali already have black outs.

Please help me understand if i am incorrect in my thought process. I can see why for some people EVs are more convenient (the californians or europeans that live with outrageous gas prices). But my biggest concern is, where is this extra electricity going to come from???

We would need to make more nuclear plants or burn more natural gas. At that point, its more energy efficient to just drive an ICE hybrid, because the energy losses of converting gas to electricity to mechanical energy is greater than just gas straight to wheels. Hence why gasoline would be cheaper than electricity at some point in the future.

 

I'm not convinced of that in the future,....paradigm shift of burning fossile fuel era and global warming effect all over the planet , will induce some changes maybe not in our life time....or maybe it will.
Thinking ouside the box like Elon is the way I see it.

 

("if" ... but "if" is not reality - any more that saying 'if' there were 10 million autos on the road in 1905 - there wouldn't be enough gasoline. Like the movie said if you build it they will come ... )

is that because there's no such thing as wind & Solar w/ sufficient battery backup? Like the Bumblebee that aerodynamically shouldn't be able to fly - someone should have told the hawaiians they can't shut down their diesel to electric generators


Tesla battery packs power the Hawaiian island of Kauai after dark

.

 

Electric production capacity is for peak demand. At night, when most EVs would charge, demand is low, and there is excess capacity available. Many plants at that time are running at low, inefficient rates. Some run even when there is no demand because shutting down risks damage.

Much of the capacity build out is to cover the shut down of older plants.

California and Texas have issues with their grid that would be causing problems without EVs.

The engine in a Toyota hybrid has a thermal efficiency of 41%. A natural gas CCGT power plant is over 60%. It can run at peak for longer period than the engine in the hybrid during a typical drive. Cogen power plants that also provide heating are over 90% efficient.

Oil companies are already cutting production to keep prices up. If demand drops because there are more EVs on the road, they will not keep on making the same volume of gasoline they are making today.

 

Diesels have been successful in Europe, but currently sell less than PHEV+BEV, and soon less than BEV. It is game over for the new cars powered by this low tax fuel. Refining cost is somewhat equal to petrol.

 

You do realize that there are losses in the extraction and processing of fossil fuels?

 

Gambling the biggest draw to Tesla when pressure was building from the price-war front in both China & Europe and the CCS front from NEVI funding were both getting intense was what?

 

Tesla went with CCS in Europe because regulations required it for public chargers, and only those were eligible for incentives. Superchargers weren't public by the EU definition. That meant retrofitting all the Superchargers in Europe, and supplying adapters or upgrading existing cars for CCS. None of that was free.

There are far more Superchargers in the US, so bigger cost to retrofit them. With others now using NACS, and it becoming an official standard, Tesla can now save that money. They even can save by not having the token CCS at some locations.

Tesla will still have an advantage for their customers with the Supercharger network. Not every location is going to be opening up to the others, and I expect Tesla cars to get lower rates.

 

The grid needs improvements and growth, with or without EVs.


Can the Electric Grid Handle EV Charging? - Union of Concerned Scientists


The expected number of EVs on the roads by 2030 is 26.4 Million. That will require approximately 2.5% of our currrent grid capacity. Fairly easy to manage.

https://www.evconnect.com/blog/can-the-power-grid-handle-electric-cars#:~:text=A%20typical%20EV%20would%20require,asking%20of%20the%20electrical%20grid.

The latest estimates I have seen is that the existing grid could support about a 40% share of EVs on our roads.
The caveat is that the majority of charging needs to be managed. Basically the vehicles need to be charged at times of low demand.

This act, will actually lower the costs of the utilities, as they can run some of their production at a level that is more efficient.

To reach more than that, more capacity, better transmission or a combination of both will be needed. This could be nuclear, or wind, or solar, or geothermal, or hydro.

In addition, if vehicle to grid is allowed, EVs could help the reliability/stability of the grid as well as lowering the cost.
When Texas had a shortage of power, they caused a huge spike in the price of natural gas. If Texas had instead been able to tap into a large population of EVs, that may have lessened, or even eliminated that price surge.

 

maybe we could ask all cities to turn commercial building lights off at night

 

I'll take that as agreement. Tesla took a big gamble and it looks like it will pay out.