Featured Toyota says electric cars with 1500km range are just around the corner

I didn't work there, I used the data for a year.

The reason you didn't get stranded is because you avoided trips that would strand you, or you bought a car that could take you on 100% of your trips. There is no current BEV that could take me on 100% of my trips, and that's the case for well over 50% of the people in the US (based on the NHTS data). Things are improving with more charging locations, but there are still places that, to get there, you'd have to string an extension cord out a hotel window or stop for 12 hours at an RV park (or worse). If you stay on the major highways, don't have any unexpected closures and go city-to-city, it's not a big problem anymore. But what if that's not the case? Range is an enabler for off-the-beaten-path destinations but it's also a safety net for when the unexpected happens. I often use a trip I was on not too long ago where the road got closed by a forest fire (Google Maps and CDOT's website both said it was open while I was standing at the barrier talking to the trooper) and I had to go backwards on a route with no chargers (still!) for almost 200 miles. 600 miles of range? No problem. 250 miles of range? You're getting stranded.

 

Level 3 AC public charging is more prevalent in Europe and other areas. If adding a 50 amp EVSE to a home can be a financial hardship, how much worse is it for 80 amp?

The announcement was for production of the next gen battery to start in 2026. What are the competitors saying they'll have at that time?

If these trips make up 1% of of car trips in the US, that likely impacts less than 1% of drivers. PHEVs aren't being banned. How many drivers that need such abilities are going to pay for such a BEV over a PHEV?

 

We are talking about a very expensive long range vehicle. This is not going to be sold to people that don't have money to spend ;-) Think of it this way if the battery for a 250 mile bev like the model 3 standard range is too expensive, how expensive is a 900 mile bev. Me, I have a 300 mile bev and did not pay an electrician to hard wire a connector, so I am limited to 7.7 kw through the dryer outlet. I can afford to put a 11 kw in but I have never found this too slow. I doubt many will do it, but the 1% may, and the cost is a lot smaller than the cost of the battery and will last longer.

I believe it was bevs using the batteries in 2028. Definitely doable. The 2025 timeframe has been abandoned, as was overly optimistic. They have decided to test solid state in that time frame in hybrids.

lucid air claims over 500 miles of epa range. The much less efficient Tesla semi over 500 miles of range. Definitely Toyota's long range is doable even with their bipolar lithium ion, and certainly if they have solid state. The question really is going to be the price. If tesla in 2028 makes a 300 mile battery pack that costs them $4K, and toyota can do a 900 mile pack for $18K, and the manufacturers will mark these up for profit, how many people will want to pay the extra money. That's why I think it is unlikely to capture much market share. The approximately 300 mile range model Y vastly outsells teslas own 400 mile model S and lucid air.

We should soon see. Nio is planning a 150 kwh semi solid pack next year. We will see how many choose it over the shorter but still long range models.

 

Yes I did not take my personal vehicle on trips that had a high likelyhood of accidents. I could not afford a plane that could take me on 100% of my trips. That was my point. You don't have to use one personal vehicle for everying. For most of us those gulfstreams are wasteful, but one and my tesla could cover all my trips. Elon is buying a new gulfstream though. Define the problem in the real world and the solution becomes a lot more interesting.

While I agree a bev could not take you on 100% of your trips without stopping longer, a car can't take me to go to work in singapore or tokyo. Commercial airlines are much cheaper going to california or the east coast, and driving takes too long.

I don't think you clearly looked at the data. Many people take planes instead of driving on very long trips. Others rent vehicles. I do both. Many households have more than one vehicle. Infrastruture is being built out. BEVs are not for everyone, but lets say in 5 years infrastructure might be good enough for 50% of new light vehicle buyers.

I still don't get why you want a bev. You say you barely use gas in your phev. I doubt you would spend the money on a low volume model that gets 1500 km/charge.

 

Most or all of the places I couldn't go in an EV, I certainly couldn't go in an airplane.

A private jet + a Tesla could cover the same number of my trips as just the Tesla.

Like, 3 days at a hotel on L1?

Every one of the places I'm talking about are in my state or a neighboring state. And my Prius Prime took me to every one of them.

They are NOT cheaper! It cost me $72 to take my family of four to California.

I told you I looked at it for a year, and you say that.

I've rented a vehicle for a trip twice. Both were catastrophes.

I have 7, but 6 are bikes or trikes.

Well, in 2018, it was about 5%. It might be up to 50% soon.

Because I don't want to burn fossil fuels.

I'm considering purchasing a 600 mile range version of the Aptera, if it makes it to market.

 

Completely missing the point.

The point is, today's batteries suck. If we had better batteries, say 800Wh/kg vs today's 200 and $30/kWh vs today's $130, then would they buy them?

Yes, yes they would. Because they'd be cheaper and better than gas cars.

 

But if we didn’t subsidize oil, it would happen faster

 

This report included Toyota's projections for relative costs of these up coming batteries. At least the non solid state ones. Toyota Shows Electric Crown And New Solid-State Batteries With Up To 932 Miles Of Range | Carscoops The next gen prismatic NCM is supposedly coming out in 2026. It could get a bZ4X to 500 miles of range, but a pack of that capacity will cost 60% more. For those is which 250 miles is plenty, it should mean a lower price for the car, though waiting a year or two for the bipolar LFP should yield more savings.

Plenty of EVs with these sucky batteries are being sold today, and slight improvements will keep expanding those numbers. A single model out selling the Corolla family globally is a big deal. Don't need a miracle like you propose here to happen for EV sales to keep growing. Toyota isn't claiming such cost reductions, and Aptera isn't going to be using new chemistry.

 

Toyota is claiming cost reductions and Aptera doesn't need better batteries because they use over 60% less energy than a Model 3 to go the same distance. Same thing as a battery that's 250% better.

 

Yeah, long distances in an aptera look like fun!

 

It seems that bipolar LFP may be the sweet spot for a 200-400 mile bev. The link was interesting, but left out what I was really curious about, their long run battery cost projections for their solid state.

from the link

 

The trouble likely is the same with all manufacturers, no low cost options, with potential high repair costs should something go wrong a decade down the road.

my guess is Toyota is also imagining a $50,000+ EV

Hope I’m wrong but it’s not looking good for cheaper options

 

Toyota's timeline for 4 generations of batteries.

Source: https://electrek.co/2023/06/15/toyota-testing-new-electric-gr-sports-car/

But still all smoke and mirrors until it isn't.

 

I highly doubt our infrastructure will all at once keep up with even Toyota's charge time goals. IMHO the majority of public chargers in will still be L2 and the current crop of DCFC chargers at anywhere between 50 kW to 200 kW with the vast majority at the 200 kW range by the time 2028 rolls around. The high performance once capable of 400 kW or 500 kW will be rare. Also as far as L2 is concerned we're still hampered by Toyota's charger built in to the car itself. I mean, hopefully, they aren't still putting 6.6 kW chargers in their 2028 bZ4X.

Actually because of our random charging quality infrastructure map (that will slowly improve), I do predict people will fly (or even use more mass transit) more rather than drive. One they'll save money because they are using an electric car and two they'll probably use that money for other expenses like airline tickets instead of incurring time loss from driving.

Yeah not gonna happen that soon. Using the bZ4X AWD XLE as an example, you're looking at a $44K car with a 228 mile EPA range going to a 274 mile EPA range selling for around $39,650 in 2027, maybe closer to 2028 based on Toyota's chart below. Of course the standard price of a normal car will have risen as well. I mean people are paying $80,000 for a truck over 7 years now.

Just so everybody is on the same page, let's look at a chart from the Global Toyota site of those same talks that CarScoops did:
Electrified Technologies - Batteries, Fundamental technologies to innovate BEV | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website


The 2023 bZ4X AWD XLE gets EPA 228 miles (367 km) of range. If the next gen bz4x get this bipolar LFP it would get a 20% jump in range which would be EPA 274 miles (440 km) and battery cost would drop 40% from 2022 estimate of $153/kWh (1) resulting in dropping the current $11,077 battery costs to $6,646 or make the same XLE AWD have an MSRP of $39,649 instead of it's current $44,080. I would assume extra cost savings due to switching to LFP.

(1) Typical costs from FOTW #1272, January 9, 2023: Electric Vehicle Battery Pack Costs in 2022 Are Nearly 90% Lower than in 2008, according to DOE Estimates | Department of Energy

Would it be better for Toyota to sell their bZ4X with their Performance battery and get EPA 684 miles (11,001 km) at ~$59,000 for their 2027 bZ4X AWD XLE or just get a 20% increase to 273 EPA miles (439 km) for the same price?

 

Toyota is claiming a 20% reduction, or 40% with LFP, in cost for a battery of the capacity in the current bZ4X. Your $130 to $30 for a kWh dream is a 77% reduction.

Not cost, but some more details on solid state here(I'd copy/paste the text, but it's images)
Electrified Technologies - Batteries, Fundamental technologies to innovate BEV | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website
Toyota may have solved the durability issue, so are moving up use in plug ins. Capacity/range is improved a bit over the next gen performance, but the main improvement is in cutting charge time in half to 10 minutes.

Unless their cells can be made on existing production lines, I'm just assuming costs are much higher than current batteries.

If a range of 200 to 300 miles works for you, I think we'll see those cheaper options. Most likely with LFP packs, but sodium ion/Li-ion hybrid batteries could show up in China next year.

Toyota was talking about a lot more than batteries with that release, so I started a new thread for it. Toyota Unveils New Technology That Will Change the Future of Cars | PriusChat

 

Where was the barrier?

The reason I ask is my bucket list includes: (1) EAA Museum; (2) Grand Tetons; (3) Glacier National Park, and; (4) visit a Washington State cousin. If the barrier might make this impossible for a Tesla, that blocked location will let me make a different plan.

Bob Wilson

 

Even as senior citizens, we still ski nearly all day for six days consecutive days, getting good use out of our IKON passes. Though I'll admit that when doing so, our lodging isn't 180 miles away.

Then what is good, in miles per kWh?

The EPA figures 4 miles/kWh for Prius Prime and Tesla 3 RWD, and 2.8 miles/kWh for RAV4 Prime. The very highest rating they show for any vehicle is 4.2 miles/kWh (displayed as 24 kWh for 100 miles). I know many people can get somewhat better on good flat roads in standard weather conditions, as we also do with gasoline, but many other threads have talked about winter conditions causing significantly reduced range.

From the EPA's fueleconomy.gov:

A home wall charger is of no use to me on my road trips, away from home.

In the other threads discussing the Tesla Supercharger network, and the fact that I very commonly travel in areas still not served by that network, I recently pointed out that a large portion of the J1772 stations that are available, are just 6.5 kW. The 20kW stations, which do appear in places well off the Tesla Supercharger network, are still much too sparse. In many areas, the best available is still an RV campground with NEMA 14-50, limited to 9.6 kW.

 

You have to calculate using your local electric rate, battery kWh, range miles, and gasoline prices. So I have a 2019 Tesla Model 3 Std Rng Plus and live in Huntsville AL:

• $0.12/kWh residential rate
  • over past year: 14% free, 46% home; 40 % Supercharger
• At home, my L2 charge limit: 32 A maximum at 240 VAC
  • 32 mi charge/hour to ~205 miles
  • charge rate ramps down approaching 222 mi, 100% limit
  • charge at home while eating dinner, watching TV, or sleeping ... having a life
• 48.6 kWh, ~222 mi range after 109,888 miles and 4 years
  • 55 kWh, 240 mi range, new
• $5.83 full charge = $0.12 * 486 kWh
• $3.05/gal regular ($3.99/gal premium)
• 1.91 gallon equivalent = $5.83 / 3.05 (1.46 gal premium)
• ~116.2 miles per gallon 222 mi/1.91 gal (152 miles per gal premium)

Local electricity rates vary as does the price of gasoline. I've used the cheapest gas price, $3.05/gal, seen on the signs. However, an equivalent performance car like her 2014 BMW i3-REx, would need premium, $3.99/gal. So today, June 17, my well used, 2019 Tesla Model 3:

• 116-152 MPG

As a rule of thumb, I tell folks, "It is about 1/3d the price per mile of my last Prius, a Prime."

Then I add, "However, no service waiting or loaner/rental for brake pads, oil changes, air filters, antifreeze, spark plugs, valve chain adjustments, and PVC valve. Best of all, no expensive catalytic converter that could be stolen."

So how about cross country, this matches my experience on a 4,600 mile trip:

EV driving uses different skills and techniques than gas cars or even our old Prius Prime. Not everyone enjoys this way of driving.

Bob Wilson

 

For most of us that live in the real world 4 miles/kwh or a slightly lower efficiency 130 mpge is excellent. To get to 5 some drastic real world compromises need to happen. Some people are just cranks and say things are terrible when they actually are quite good. The key is highway efficiency in the cold or hot conditions that you are thinking about.

There definitely is a great deal of improvement in the charging network that are needed before this works on many routes. I have found I get between 5kw-6.6kw on l2 chargers. I hope the infrastructure bill corrects this. It will take time, but at least they now have tesla onboard.

Toyota was saying a few years ago we couldn't build infrastructure to charge as fast as we do now. I think toyota is changing, but a 900 mile range vehicle even at 4miles/kwh is going to need at least at least a 230 kwh battery. To charge 70% in 10 minutes you need a megawatt charger. Some of these chargers are being built for large trucks but it won't be much of the infrastruture. But lets say you use the tech for a 300 mile bev, this scale to add 200 miles in 10 minutes is likely doable with infrastructure that is being planned for 5 years from now. All of the tesla superchargers are getting upgraded to 250 KW, and I have no doubt that they will boost this in the future.

My guess is it will take at least 8 years before toyota is selling an affordable 300 mile bev with solid state battery and 10 minute charging. They likely are over confident, but that is ok. At least they are headed to a goal that is much more realistic than hydrogen or sticking with hybrids. I really hope they drop some of those bipolar liFePO4 batteries in a bunch of phevs 5 years from now.

 

My own Prius Prime is averaging 5.1.
The Aptera is claimed to be 10.
My son's two-passenger recumbent trike is averaging about 45 right now, and we're working to improve that dramatically (potentially to infinity, net).
A velomobile can get to 80-120 or so.