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Featured Toyota sees the electric light

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Apr 6, 2023.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I had stayed at a pet friendly and free EV charging motel in Manassas only to get a cold call a week later about a 'time share / vacation club.' The pitch included three nights in the Las Vegas, Trump International Hotel for $250 and a six month, $100 hotel certificate.

    I like gambling in Las Vegas 'Old Town' (aka., Fremont.) Also, I wanted to visit three brothers in Arizona and my Aunt Jane in Los Angeles. Finally, I wanted to test vacation driving in the Model 3 as my previous long distance drives were ~730-750 miles.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    what happened in vegas used to stay in vegas :(
     
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  3. Gokhan

    Gokhan Senior Member

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    Did you win? I have never hanged out on Fremont Street and never been in the Trump Hotel. Over a decade ago, I used to drive to Las Vegas from LA in my 1985 Corolla several times a year. mpg used to be over 30, and I I think I reached around 35 mpg, which is of course, half what I get with my Prius Prime. I haven't been to Vegas since 2012, when I took my mother and sister there, who really enjoyed it.
     
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I took some money from Vegas and transferred it to Vicksburg. It is called Gambling, not winning.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  5. Gokhan

    Gokhan Senior Member

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    I thought the house always won, but it sounds like you figured out how to beat it. You need to teach me how. ;)
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The house always wins which was a critical to confirmation that my craps simulator was working. But with my craps stimulator I have been able to confirm:
    • Use free odds to dilute the house advantage of the line bet.
    • Use free odds at a factor of $30 to ensure no rounding or truncated payoff.
    The pass line bets, PASS, DONT PASS, COME, AND DONT COME, have a house advantage of -1.40% or -1.41%. Buried in the obscure rules of craps, it means these pass line bets will always pay the casino. However, there are a lot of other bets that have worse house advantages. A simple example is betting on double six or 12. It has a 1 in 36 chance of being rolled but the casinos pay off much less, typically 1 to 30.

    Free odds are a side bet to the line bet that pays off at true odds, no house advantage. There are different casino rules for minimum pass line bets, $5, $10, $15, and $25, which are required before adding free odds bet. Then the casino table will have an odds maximum, 5x, 10x, and higher. So lets assume a table has $10 minimum and 5x odds:
    • $10 pass line bet - $10, house takes 1.40% or 1.41%, simplify to 1.40%
    • $10 pass line bet and $10 free odds - $20, the house advantage on the bets is 1.40% / 2 = 0.70%
    • $10 pass line bet and $20 free odds - $30, the house advantage is 1.40% / 3 = 0.47%
    • $10 pass line bet and $30 free odds - $40, house advantage is 1.40% / 4 = 0.35%
    The good news is the house advantage is being diluted. The bad news is you have put more and more of your gambling money on the table so losing happens much faster leaving you broke. IMHO, the knee in the curve is 1 unit of line bet and a minimum 2 units of free odds.

    The next challenge is free odds are paid at true odds rates: 1-to-2; 2-to-3, or 5-to-6. The 5-to-6 payoffs are for the point numbers 6 & 8. The factor of 5 x 6, $30, means any payoff will be to the exact dollar amount. If your free odds are not $30, $60, $90, e.t.c., the casino pockets the fraction of a dollar that can not be paid. Although we can have magic odds for the 4 & 10, 5 & 9, and 6 & 8 numbers, a $30 free odds will always payoff exactly to the dollar.

    So lets combine free odds dilution of at least 3x with exact odds payoff at a $10 table:
    • 4 & 10 - $10 pass line and $20 free odds with $30 on table at 3x odds.
    • 5 & 9 - $10 pass line and $24 free odds ( 2 x 3 = $6, so $24 is the next perfect free odds), $34.
    • 6 & 8 - $10 pass line and $30 free odds, $40.
    I prefer to always bet $30 free odds as the payoffs are exact, no truncated fraction of a dollar. It also means dilution of the pass line bets to reduce the house advantage to 0.47% or lower.

    There are more sophisticated plays we can cover if interested. Just they really don't have as important an effect as these two: minimum table bet and $30 free odds. Remember the House always has an advantage but you can play craps to minimize their advantage.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #46 bwilson4web, Apr 11, 2023
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2023
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  7. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    The house does not always win. 60 Minutes did a show on a guy (his degree was in math) who figured out mathematical odds & retired VERY well - because he could mathematically predict the odds of winning the state lottery.

    Jerry and Marge Selbee: How a retired couple won millions using a lottery loophole - 60 Minutes - CBS News

    They had to change the game because of him and people like him. I do love me a feel-good gambling story.
    .
     
    #47 hill, Apr 11, 2023
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2023
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  8. jzchen

    jzchen Newbie!

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    There was a casino in Vegas that allowed 100x odds. Those were very frightening bets….

    “craps stimulator”, that has got to be a laxative!

    But more on topic I hope there’s more electrical capacity whether it be storage or production for those horrible hot summer days when SCE says to reduce use if possible, (even providing incentive to do so). I’m the fattest in the household so I’m the most sensitive to hot room temps…
     
    #48 jzchen, Apr 11, 2023
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2023
  9. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    card counters can often beat the house, but are unceremoniously removed from the premises when caught
     
  10. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    A particular state lottery game, that was designed in such a way that there were plays he could prove had odds in his favor.

    When they closed that one, he continued with a particular lottery game in another state that worked a similar way.
     
  11. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    he called it simple arithmetic, which i'd like to think i'm fairly proficient at. but having read the story, i didn't understand a thing about his mathematical explanation.
     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Card counters were banned until the casinos switched to deep decks and machine shuffling. Then they realized most who heard about card counting did it badly.

    The temptation of sure fire methods raises more business for casinos.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    back in the day, when i had to entertain customers in vegas, i found that while the house is favored in the odds, many people get ahead for a time. the problem is that most don't no when to quit.
    or, their time is limited, and they play until it's time to go home, which usually favors the house due to the odds.
    still, a lot of people win money, but overall, the house has to win, or there would be no vegas.
     
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  14. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Short term you can beat the house. Long term, averaged out over lots of people, no chance.

    Sounds a lot like climate change. Bringing a snowball into the senate doesn’t disprove climate change anymore than a win streak disproves the odds are in the house’s favor.
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Or it's simply because they can get more range, faster charging, and better performance for the same price from the others.

    Is this a "they learn from the competition" claim? Cause they didn't seem to have done so from the Volt and C-max Energi for the first Prius Prime.
     
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  16. FalconSeven

    FalconSeven Active Member

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    I think the best way to look at the bx4z is a first generation+ compliance car. Think of at as an eGolf or a Kia Soul, and you're probably not far off the mark.

    As a two EV household (id.4 and eNiro), if I had cross shopped the bx4z, it wouldn't have met the grade. As it was, it was a tough choice between the id.4 and the EV6, but when I got the id.4, the EV6 was brand new and had limited availability. The id.4 wasn't much better, but it was available.

    We also did cross shop a Model Y, but that rode like a skateboard.
     
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  17. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    What does that make the iD EV, a compliance minus?:)
     
  18. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Yeah, I'm not nervous necessarily a fan of the model y, but it has a whole lot better efficiency and longer range as well as all-wheel drive as a basic feature
     
  19. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Model Y is a good crossover, but it was made quickly from the model 3 which is an excellent design for a sports sedan with great efficiency and lower. It got tesla to market fast, and the market is too big to waste time on things like the falcon wing doors of the model X, which slowed model 3 development. It checks all the boxes and fits a huge volume demographics in the US, Europe, and China. Now that berlin and austin are ramping up production, prices are finally dropping.

    Maybe there should be two compact SUV/crossovers in tesla's stable built on the same platform. One thing it is missing is an active suspension option. They probably did not include this at first to differentiate it from the model X, and because when the model 3 and Y were being designed there was lots of areas for improvement. It was redesigned and improved with the redesign of the model S/X. An air suspension can lower the height at higher speeds or on smoother roads for better aero efficiency. It is heavier and more expensive to both buy and maintain, but it is a good option. The second model that likely needs to be built on the platform would be a less aerodynamic and better off road BEV SUV.

    Toyota has with the b4zx made a more suv like crossover than the model Y, but it likely costs toyota more to produce and efficiency and acceleration are worse. They are fixing that with a new made for BEV platform. The Rav4 is the most popular crossover in the US and outsells all other vehicles but pick up trucks. That means toyota has a solid foundation to make the next gen the most popular bev crossover. VW is moving some id.4 production the the US to take advantage of the tax credit, and the Mustang Mach E is already eligible for the tax credit but it will drop to $3750 until ford can source North american batteries. The hundai/kia ioniq5/EV6 are compelling but won't qualify for the credit.
     
    #59 austingreen, Apr 14, 2023
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2023