Car affordability in 2022 and beyond

Well, if we took away everyone's ability to get around, we couldn't expect them to just buy EV's just because that's their only option. A huge percentage of Americans and Europeans cannot afford to buy a new $20,000 EV, much less a new $30,000 or $40,000 or $50,000 or more EV.

We could take away both ICEV's and not give them public transportation. We'd just end up with a lot of angry pedestrians that can't afford EV's is all.

 

Shareholders are being talked about like their some monolith that just wants profits from the company's current product mix. That isn't the case. Wanting a profitable company doesn't mean sticking with old product at the risk of it being phased out.
Toyota defies shareholder pressure to embrace EVs - Nikkei Asia
Toyota clashes with shareholders over its slow EV rollout | CarExpert
Some companies can deny and fight the market changes, but a non small portion of investors are taking their funds elsewhere.

The article was about China, and its regulation deadline. Note that the domestic car companies don't seem to have an issue. A major note is that this isn't an ICE ban. China's EV policy is targeting 40% of sales to be EV by 2030. There is a point where ICE cars have to be at least a mild hybrid, but this isn't what this regulations is about.

The regulation that is causing such trouble for automakers there is China's car emission standards being tightened up to meet Euro fricking 6. The car companies bitched and moaned about stricter emission regulations, but did they choose to not plan on meeting them in the US and Europe. It isn't even like they have to invent anything. Euro 6 was already in effect when China announced this.
China: Light-Duty: NEV | Transport Policy

With COVID, maybe a delay is reasonable, but if the car companies' plans were to to produce the dirtier cars up and to the deadline, this would have played out the same as without COVID. The car buyers were aware of the upcoming change, and are savvy enough to wait until the real deals start.

As for markets where EVs may not be suitable. Most of them have per capita carbon emissions much lower than the US. They might also be more of a scooter than car culture. With the former, letting them have ICE's longer is lower impact than here. The latter is easier to electrify. Otherwise, maybe we should help out in getting past the dirty part of development? Get them hybrids instead of the dirty ICEs car companies now sell them.

 

One thing is to broaden options for customers, another would be to completely change from one product to another.

Maybe I misunderstood, but "transition to zero emissions vehicles" sounded like dumping ICEV's and going to all EV.

I'd like my next car to be an EV. I'm not sure if that would happen though with the prices of things. I'm not sure I trust Toyota as much as I used to either, EV or not.

 

I'm going to say crate motors.

At the moment, EV conversions are expensive, and are mostly for classic cars, but there's clearly potential to change this. The issues are economies of scale and standardisation.

There is already a company in France that does this for a very specific range of cars - Minis, Renault Clios and Fiat 500s - for about 4-5000 euro per car. You can see more about it here.

I went to the Fully Charged Live show in Sydney last month, and got talking to someone from a company in Newcastle (the Australian one, a couple of hundred km North of Sydney) that's already doing this for classic cars, but they're in talks with the company in the video about bringing kits over here. He said prices have come down since that video was made.

A Fiat 500 with a knackered engine can be had here for under A$2000; in Europe it would be half that, or less. So that means you could get a cool city EV for somewhere in the region of US$6000, and these prices will fall dramatically as time goes on.

I think the key here is for mass manufacturers (probably in China) to start making standardised kits for certain large-volume models, especially very interoperable ones, like, say, the 1.8VVTI Toyota engine, or the 1.4TSI VW one, or the 2.0 Ford EcoBoost or whatever, with standardised modular batteries in kits shaped to slot into specific slots in the engine bay, under the seats, and where the fuel tank and spare wheel were. If you could do this in big enough volumes, I think you could quickly get conversion prices down below US$2,500. It would also have the environmental benefit that you're not making whole new cars.

I think if there's going to be an EV subsidy regime, it makes more sense - from an environmental and social policy point of view, if not an industrial job-creation one - to focus subsidies on cheap conversions, rather than on $100,000 giant luxury cars.

 

That might work or at least help. I'm skeptical though because 1, engines are lasting longer than the rest of the vehicle. So how do you incentivize ripping out perfectly good engines to throw in electric motors and batteries? And 2, can you make them practical?

I mean, coming from my own perspective, I'd like to have an EV and don't have a lot of money. But would I pay $5,000 for an old car and have someone install a $5,000 EV motor and battery in it that possibly only gets 50 miles of range because the car wasn't designed to hold a big EV battery?

 

Range is definitely the biggest issue with conversions at the moment, and that's what they need to work on. It may be that until we have more energy-dense technologies in three or four years' time it's just not practical. But by then I reckon you'd be looking at a total cost of US$5000, rather than the US$5000+5000 that you mention. Then whack in a good government subsidy, and it starts to make sense from the consumer's point of view.

 

Think of the crash danger of these conversions. Just stuff them in anywhere they will fit and hang the engineering, design and testing to make them safe. What about parts after a couple of years?

 

In this case, it means having the capability to make money selling EVs in markets that require them.
Many companies offer EVs, but they loose money with them as they don’t have scale yet. It takes time to build up the supply chain/manufacturing capacity.

Toyota is in the early stages of this. Hopefully they follow through and can make the transition successfully.

 

The Toyota investors speaking up were concerned that Toyota wasn't broadening product. They, and ones divesting from fossil fuels, aren't being driven by 'wokeism'. They see that the world is changing, and don't want to lose money on their investments to companies in denial of the changing.

When emissions regulations got tougher on diesel trucks, Navistar believed that they didn't need no fancy emission controls, and they could pass with just EGR systems. Well, that didn't work out. Their engine reliability and reputation sunk, got into legal trouble with customers and the feds, and ended up buying engines from Cummins.
https://www.trucksandparts.com/navistars-wrong-diesel-engine-technology-costing-millions/
Navistar, Inc. Clean Air Act Settlement | US EPA
Carriers sue Navistar over alleged defects of its EGR-only MaxxForce engines | Commercial Carrier Journal

It's possibilities like that which spook investors.

The Electrek article was taking what was happening in the Chinese market over a switch to cleaner ICE cars, and expanding it to EVs and ICE 'bans'.

China was one of the first to have a 'ban', but it really isn't one. By 2035, they will go 100% electrified. You can still sell an ICE then, it just has to have a mild hybrid system attached. There is a NEV program that is modeled on CARB's ZEV one. A BEV, PHEV, and FCEV earns a certain amount of credits, and a car company has to get a number of credits equal to a percentage of their total car sales. Currently, it is 18%, which less than what CARB was add a couple years ago. There are reports of of 40% EV sales by 2030 in China, but I think that's 40% credits. Something novel about the NEV program is that excess credits can be used to offset a company's deficit in China's equivalent of CAFE.

China's government took steps to encourage investment into the EV industry, along with incentives for sales. Combined with different regulations for cars in general *cough*safety*cough*, They already have a selection of affordable EVs now.

China: Light-Duty: NEV | Transport Policy
Policies to promote electric vehicle deployment – Global EV Outlook 2021 – Analysis - IEA.

 

I hope so. A lot of EV stuff that's "supposed to be this or that some day soon" seems to backfire. One thing that made me upset when I owned the Leaf is I had planned to have the money to buy a $5,500 battery every so many years and that they would be better. But then the batteries went up to over $8,000 and never got any better than what I had. I also had hoped a third party solution would come up. It never really did that I know of.

 

I don't think things will play out for the EV expansion as the Electrek article predicts. For one thing, most these ICE bans aren't really bans. California's allows PHEVs, China's allows hybrids, etc. The bans also only apply to new car sales*. Unless there is another force in effect, like higher gas prices, I doubt demand for the no-plug cars will drop like they did in China with the old emission standard ones.

That seems to be a unique case. We've had tighter emission and safety regulations phased in with other markets, and I don't recall there being such drops in sales. There could have been incentives, as there is to move out old model year inventory, but the public generally didn't have new regulations as a top consideration when buying. With a good selection of EVs, and maybe a higher percentage of 'year end' car buyers, the Chinese public is just more willing to wait on purchasing.

After this, I don't think the car companies are going to risk over supplying ICE cars before a 'ban' goes into effect, at least in China.

*Are these a hard stop sale? Will a dealer be stuck with an ICE car that was sitting on the lot? Or is it like lead paint, where production stopped, but the supply was allowed to be sold off?

Part of that is the level of demand. There is a market of refurbished and improved batteries for the Prius, but its best year of sales might exceed then gen1 Leaf's total run in the US.

The other factor is in right to repair. EVs are getting totaled from minor damage because manufacturers aren't letting third parties look at the battery data. Locking people out of the software makes it different for others to offer upgrades, and manufacturer just wants to sell a whole new car. Sounds like those doing upgraded batteries for the PP use a microcomputer to fool the car's computer into thinking the original pack is in place. That wouldn't be needed with access to the car's software.

 

That's it right there. Where's the demand for EV's, EV conversions and all other EV stuff? Most people are still buying ICEV's.

As far as Nissan Leaves are concerned, as far as I understand they've used about the same battery size (physically) and EV motor since the first Leaf. There are people who have installed 30 and 40kWh batteries in 24kWh Leaves. But even with all those years sharing so much that you could technically make any battery that fits in there compatible with every Nissan Leaf that's ever existed, yet there still isn't a demand for those. When will there be a demand? What would cause a demand?

The more I think about this the less it makes sense.

• You can't get a $0 conversion on a $5,000 car so that it stays $5,000 total unless you have some hefty subsidies. And it's not just the cost of the car and the hardware, it's also the labor to install the hardware. Just the installation alone of an engine or transmission can cost thousands, even if the engine or transmission is free.
• Even if you can mitigate the costs so that it doesn't turn out to be expensive to retrofit used cars with EV drive trains, the other question is who is going to do all those motor and battery swaps? There's already a mechanic shortage, and getting more people to join a career that's going to last only as long as there are plenty of ICEV's in a world going all-EV doesn't seem logical.

 

inflation hurts. i just picked up a bolt for $23,000. but could have got the base model for 18k.
(tax credits)

 

They need to pull their heads out of their rear ends.

2023 Kia Rio | Subcompact Sedan - Pricing & Features | Kia
2023 Kia Soul | Versatile Crossover - Pricing & Features | Kia
2023 Kia Forte | Compact Sedan - Pricing & Features | Kia
2023 Kia Rio 5-Door | Sporty Hatchback - Pricing & Features | Kia

All come with a 5 year 60,000-mile general warranty and a 10 year 100,000 mile powertrain warranty.

Last time I checked Hyundai had at least 2 2023 vehicles under $20,000.

That Bolt is one of the most outstanding value for the dollar vehicles on the market right now!

AP reporting whether on politics or cars is poorly researched, biased, flawed and inaccurate but at least they are consistent.

 

This is what makes used bolt pricing such a slap in the face, same money used or new

 

yeah, if you qualify for the tax credits, it doesn't work. and how many people that don't are interested in an ev?