About extreme weather

it's no fun, and there's no fix

 

There are choices between "make it less worse" and "keep making it more worse".

 

Hope you don't consider me to be one of the "deniers." I was only presenting my opinion based on my training and experience as a meteorologist.

Do you have any specific references regarding a jet stream that is becoming more amplified (if I understand your point correctly)? That would not be what would be expected from a regime in which the poles are warming relatively faster than the tropics, and thus weakening the poles-to-tropics temperature gradient.

The IPCC concluded in the latest assessment report (AR6) that the stratospheric polar vortex has apparently become weaker and more unstable, but confidence is "low" in how this affects tropospheric weather events.

 

iirc - the pioneer of formal logic Aristotle wrote, "the more you know, the more you realize you don't know".
Does that make him a skeptic? A Debbie Downer? Inquisitive? A denier? a realist? or? .....
labels are a funny thing that way
.

 

Heat wave here in Florida

 

I keep an open mind about all the available information, as postulated by the scientific method. I also consider the objective proof thus far collected to be incomplete and in some cases corrupted. Victims of the post-truth era. It will be interesting to see how much more evidence is required to tip the balance of world opinion toward the proper response to this threat.

 

There is a lot of disagreement among climatologists about that. That's pretty much all I can say. Here are 3 publications that provide some sense of the scope

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2104105118
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018MS001492
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay2880

It seems slightly separable from distribution functions of temperature and precipitation. With those we can observe or anticipate changes of median values. Or we can observe one tail or the other getting fatter without median changing. All that without identifying a causal mechanism among several possibilities.

My forecast is for continued disagreement.

Bob started by mentioning that no single event is proof. Such is violated by observations (rare or unprecedented), and 'both sides' can be seen playing that game poorly. It is a complicated system and one can confront it, or not. Easier not to, and receptive audiences can be found for any simplistic point of view.

 

Are cold spells any more frequent, or more cold, now than back in the old era?

I've had the impression that the cold side hasn't become worse, at least as seen in weather records. Instead, severe cold spells may have become less frequent, causing common memory to fade, young people to not remember them at all, and a lot more new buildings and infrastructure to be getting their first severe cold tests all at the same time.

 

Reading a book of stories about old Florida, the weather in the late 1800’s seems about the same as today

 

I would like to ask a question. And please, I am not a meteorologist, scientists or anything like that. I am asking because I don't know much. One thing that doesn't seem to be mentioned is the effect that our sun has on our climate. The sun seems to be completely ignored. Doesn't the solar winds and the 11 year cycle influence our weather patterns at all? The reason why I ask this is that whenever you study the gas giant planets (which are hundreds of millions of miles away from our sun) the topic of how the solar winds affects their cloud patterns and chemical interactions is always mentioned. With the earth, the sun is not mentioned even in the slightest. Why? Would it not make sense that our sun affects our polar regions even in the slightest? And isn't the ozone in the polar regions thinner than in other areas of our planet? I am not in disagreement with global warming, but, I have to believe that being only 93 million miles for the most powerful heat and solar wind blower out there, it has to be doing something to our atmosphere.

 

Ignored by whom? To whom does it 'seem' to be getting ignored? Does it seem to you that it's being ignored? How did it end up seeming that way to you?

As Bob already pointed out, the people doing the work don't seem to be ignoring it.

 

It isn't getting much play in the popular press, because it isn't very news worthy. The solar impact on climate is being studied. It has always played a part, but its effect is being overshadowed by CO2 now. So, it isn't being discussed in non-technical sources. Unless that source is claiming man has no impact.

 

Thanks Trollbait. This helps me understand it overall. When you see how the sun impacts the north pole of Saturn which is over 950 million miles away, one can't see how the sun would not be impacting us when we are only 93 million miles away. Science is science, unless ignored. Thank you.

 

Is anybody saying it doesn't impact us? I mean, literally, anybody?

There may be people saying they have seriously run the numbers on that and on the effect of heat-trapping gases and compared the urgency of both effects in our current situation.

That's not, by a country mile, the same thing.

 

There are several climate patterns apparently associated with 11-year solar cycle. It is more difficult to identify a mechanism/causal factor, but some progress there as well.

 

950 million miles..............93 million miles..............