Featured Toyota's thoughts on EV adoption

I don't believe anyone is suggesting Toyota stop selling ICE cars in places you mention.
That said, I would just like to see them start selling BEVs or even PHEVs in areas where the infrastructure is available.

I, and most others, understand BEVs don't work in all places or for all people. That isn't a reason to not bring a BEV option to those for whom BEVs do work.
If we waited to sell any automobiles until they worked for everyone, we would still be waiting for them

 

why is toyota so worried?

how do you charge a prius on renewables?

they must feel that they are going to be in serious trouble if scientists don't step in and force politicians to ban ev's

 

Is the commute density in the UK similar to our (USA) urban + suburban areas? If so, I don't think that 62K connectors will be enough for all of the UK

Here in the USA we have areas with huge numbers of cars on the road, especially the large metro areas like LA, Silicon Valley and Sacramento. According to https://bayareatelegraph.com/2022/02/11/how-many-cars-commute-in-the-bay-area/

" 1,370,000 people commute within the Bay Area from one county to another "

That figure only counts intra county commuters and does not take into account locals who only travel a few miles to work.

 

The US has 50K stations with 150K charging connectors to serve 330 million people... https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/advice/ev-charging-stations There's only 67 million people in the UK and they already have 22K stations with 62K connectors!

The key stat is that they're adding more than 800 charging stations a month and when you project that forward over the next couple years, as well as consider the oligarchs in the City of London have kicked out the legs from under the UK economy with the most staggering drop for their nation's economic influence in over 300 years: UK suffers biggest drop in economic output in 300 years | Financial Times

What's more the US military has just announced that they're down ranking the UK's military readiness. Again the criminally insane oligarchs are robbing the country of everything they can for short term gain so much so that the US military just said that UK is now officially unable to defend itself and no longer has an elite fighting force: US general warns British Army no longer top-level fighting force, defence sources reveal | UK News | Sky News

And despite the intentional dismantling of the UK economy by a small number of incredibly criminal and insanely greedy people who put their own person in place as the new Prime Minister of doom just provoked a massive strike over the cost of living crisis that has sent 1/2 million civil servants into the streets forcing the military to be called in to cover their most essential jobs while they refuse to work: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL49QT_M_-U&t=668s

Meanwhile the amount of charging stations they're still deploying every month is massive! Way more than the US could ever dream of... All these nightmares of greed and corruption and the potential collapse of the UK as we know it and they're still rapidly growing their EV charging capacity faster than the US and most other countries.

 

I don't understand the first two points, but there are people who sincerely advocate the third point. Their position is that long range EVs are an enabler for inconspicuous waste of natural resources. Why waste the cobalt, nickle and mercury in long range batteries when many, or even most people could work locally or from home?

 

But their main point is the money they make in the short term from massive planet killing air pollution is the only thing that matters and whatever BS they have to promote to keep the gravy train rolling they're more than happy to do!

 

Agreed. But interestingly though. No one has attempted to answer the question i asked on how long would the journey take.

 

I still think Toyota wants to continue (or return to) profiting from selling ~8 million vehicles per year- specifically that combination- and they don't see a way to do it yet if lots of them are EVs.

 

That is the definition of the Corporate Model: if A company wants to stay in business. Quarterly Earnings and on down the rabbit holes.
Even Companies that describe themselves as Environmentally conscience still have to play by the same governing mandated rules, which are generally as environmentally friendly as one believes them to be.

The question gets reduced to what do you believe.

 

I would like to thank the OP for the article. It was interesting, informative and thought provoking.


Toyota Calls On Science To Tell EV-Only Extremists That They’re Wrong (insideevs.com)
"With some solid facts and figures at hand, the carmaker’s Chief Scientist Gill Pratt says that the best approach for a sustainable future is a multipronged one, blending EVs with hybrids and other green technologies, and not a full-on commitment to battery-powered cars only."

I tend to agree that a balanced, rational approach is better than the extremist position of I want it all and I want it right now.
A gentleman in another post bought up that most countries in the world do not have adequate electric infrastructure to support Electric Vehicle integration-a vital point in transportation discussion. The networks for electrical distribution are a mammoth, costly, labor intensive, resource sapping undertaking for any nation.

Looking ahead, what happens when the next new item appears - like a breakthrough in hydrogen, fusion or other alternative transportation source of power.

Electric is an energy source that requires a tremendous investment in infrastructure unobtainable for many nations and the electric vehicles require some very special raw elements that are somewhat difficult to refine and obtain - sometimes at a tremendous environmental and human cost. Right now some might perceive it as the best alternative, but a novel scientific breakthrough may make electric vehicles seem like a horse and buggy approach and as dated as the invention of the wheel.

Appreciate the modern transportation devices a great deal -but- my favorite mode of transportation is walking followed closely by the feeling I get riding a bicycle- our modern car by comparison is convenient and arguably indispensable in modern society but certainly a distant third place in my preference for getting around.

Example of car that needs no energy distribution network
New Car, New Tech: A Car That Runs On Salt Water (motorbiscuit.com)
I don't pretend to understand this technology of how it works, just picked it as an example of different technologies out there. Maybe it was a bad one to pick out as an illustration?

 

Two bulls were grazing on a hill overlooking the herd in the valley. The young bull says to the old bull, "Hey, let's run down there and breed us a cow!" The old bulls looks up and says, "Naw, let's WALK down there and breed them ALL."

 

What EV batteries are using mercury?

If we extend the argument, aren't we wasting these resources in full hybrids, when we could be building mild hybrids? Going diesel will further reduce carbon emissions.

Many people would be happy working from home. It is the businesses that seem to want to return to past ways. The people are still going to need a car for errands though. Rearranging cities and towns for carless living and public transit is a bigger endeavor than installing chargers and building up the grid.

This was posted earlier.
Electric Porsche breaks battery record by driving from LA to New York with just 2.5 hours of charge

"The journey began at Los Angeles City Hall on 7 November 2021, stopped to charge at 18 charge stations, and traveled 2,834.5 miles before arriving at NYC City Hall on 12 November."
Shortest charging time to cross the United States in an electric vehicle | Guinness World Records
Charging took 2.5hrs of the trip.

No one is telling Toyota they can't sell ICE cars to nations where the infrastructure can't support plug ins. The problem for Toyota is that many of the car buyers in those nations can't afford their hybrids. The places where people can also can support plug ins. Toyota is actively working against plug in policies in those markets, so they can keep selling ICE cars. If Toyota had invested in a a larger plug in program, or if hydrogen had worked out, they would not be fighting against these policies.

I admit my exposure is limited, but it seems to me that the EV only push is coming from a vocal minority. Most acknowledge a rapid switch to plug ins isn't possible. It will take time, and BEVs aren't a 100% solution. Government policies in place reflect this. It is just some find it too fast for their profits.

It isn't salt water running the car.

This is a flow battery, and they aren't the only ones working it; some in stationary energy storage. In a flow battery, the electrolyte is a liquid. Actually two electrolytes that replace the anode and cathode of a typical battery. To generate a current, the fluids are pumped past each other.

Charging the battery can be done by pumping the discharged fluids out, and refilling with ones that were charged up off car. Refueling takes about as much time as with an ICE car.

The trade offs are that it is less efficient than a typical battery; energy is used to run the pumps. Quick recharge switching, like for regen braking, may not be possible as that could require the pumps to switch direction. A buffer battery is a solution, but that will capture less energy than a comparable BEV. Then there is the question of what is in the electrolyte. Didn't find what this company uses, but a stationary power one is using a vanadium chemistry, which is less common than lithium.

It will also take a bit more than changing nozzles to convert a gas station for this. The draw may be lower than a bank of ultra fast DC chargers, but that station is still going to need an electric supply upgrade from the grid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NanoFlowcell
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_battery

 

Because the very best work/jobs - in large part - are now unaffordable living areas. Thus - many are forced to live in poorer/more affordable areas - which makes for long commuting.
We can't all fish - hunt - go out on the town, visit family, help the disenfranchised, hike or manufacture goods from a computer screen.
.

 

Good points

I learned some valuable lessons trying to outguess Toyota.

I can remember when making the Camry it was the best-selling car in America for many, many years. The Camry we were making at the time was the traditional type of car design with all squared edges. We went nuts when we saw the newly designed Camry in 1992, if I recall right, with rounded off angles and edges - what in the world were Toyota's design team thinking we will never be able to sell this new age nonsense design - it will put our factory out of business. Oops it was a runaway best seller that set sales records and establish a new frontier for car design.

I remember when they bought out the Prius- completely ridiculous- who would ever buy a Hybrid car- preposterous - they are again going to make us a laughingstock of the Automotive industry. Oops a runaway success that they couldn't make enough of them and now their entire lineup consists of many Hybrid models.

In 1987 on our first trip to Japan we had to tape up some test cars to help test out some newly developed Automotive Waterborne Paint and Powder Paint with Toyota Engineers, PPG and Dupont -what a hoot- Automotive Manufactures actually using these painting technologies to help the environment - ridiculous- Oops- this is now an Automotive standard.

When Toyota first came to America they had almost no success selling cars - a complete joke - Oops - they are now one of the most powerful automakers in the world - US based Toyota plants spread all over America employing thousands upon thousands of Americans investing billions and billions of dollars in the US economy.

Toyota is still insisting on pursuing hydrogen and alternative technologies - ridiculous -Oops ....

Lessons learned, I am much more humbled in my insights and much less likely to criticize Toyota the company and its employees along with the Toyota Way are incredible, resillant and always innovative - just a little bit slower than may would like!

 

Seems Honda got More rounded / aero at the same time. Heck - drag CD & better fuel economy seemed to be driven by race cars as aero meant more speed using less allocated fuel. My late 80's speedster was better aero than even the early 80's Porsche.
Car advancement often happens on the back of one manufacturer more than another. Even some of the Prius tech was subsequent to Toyota seeing what GM did with its electric & hybrid 'Impact' prototypes. Shame on GM for dropping that ball & praises to Toyota for picking it up.

 

How about Boston to Florida?
We do it in 2 1/2 days in our Hycam.
Pit stops are 10 minutes, 3 or 4 times a day.
There’s no charging at the hotels, so back of the napkin, I’d say the trip would be 4 to 5 days in a 400 mile Tesla

 

1) what is Toyota trying to accomplish with this article?
2) you can power an ev with renewables, which is an advantage he chooses not to mention
3) people advocate all kinds of things, but we are on a nice slow trajectory with bevs, and Toyota need not worry unless they feel like they can’t catch up without slowing the competition.
Sure, short range bevs are very practical, I will buy one when the right product comes along at the right price, but Americans are fixated on the range of their gassers, that’s not the fault of manufacturers

 

I thought I answered this, but with real world trip, not bad assumptions. In 2015 an edmonds team in a Tesla model S P85 crossed la to new york in 58 hours and 55 minutes. Back then they had to spend just under 13 hours to charge the car on the trip. Gerdes did it in a porsche a year ago and only spent 2.5 hours charging which cost him $77. That 2015 route was not the shortest but it needed extra miles to hit the superchargers, but not today. Still gerdes is a hypermiler and likely went bellow the speed limit, and made way more short stops to optimize charging than most people would use.

my maps said it is 41 hours without traffic, which means probably around 44 hours with normal trafic when someone would want to go. You can make this less by planning to stay the night a couple of times and not driving straight through. Not a trip I would do in a car. If you don't stay where you charge maybe figure 6 hours of charging on the trip for a total time around 50 hours. That means 3 - 17 hour days instead of 15 hour days of driving. How many stops would you take in a gasoline car? It is hard to imagine that you wouldn't at least take some 10 minute breaks to go to the bathroom and eat each day.

No one answered if it took 4 hours to charge the car, because no one here would choose to do the trip that way. I'm sure some people tried in nissan leafs earlier, but now the US at least has a charging network. Lots of countries do not have great L3 infrastructure, but many do.

I think the shareholders, stakeholders, and environmental groups criticizing toyota for not investing in BEVs and PHEVs have been proven correct. They didn't say no hydrogen they said stop lobbying governments to subsidize hydrogen so much, and stop fighting programs to build bevs and phevs.

These comments from 2013 and 2016 from the chairman of the board that is resigning did not age well.
Toyota doesn't see opportunity for an all-electric car - The Verge
https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2016/04/15/in-the-long-run-toyota-is-banking-on-the-future-of-the-hydrogen-car/84904806/

California and Japan and Europe invested heavily in hydrogen infrastructure. The stations did not come down in cost as was promised, and the vehicles don't perform as well. Fuel cell vehicles were supposed to have a big coming out party for the tokyo olympics but really no one cared. EVs didn't need a big battery breakthrough they just needed volume to bring costs down and range up to satisfy most needs, and phevs could fill in the rest. Toyota showed with the bz4x that they couldn't just use parts and experience from the prius and compete against the likes of tesla and hyundai on BEVs.

On PHEVs they did better, but did not know their audience. They were pushing small batteries and not using them to their full potential. The RAV4 prime corrected this but they still were betting that people wanted hydrogen and not plug-ins. They planned for tiny volume and did not secure batteries. Dealers marked it up. Toyota may get enough batteries in a couple of years, but lack of planning means they will not move that many, and with tesla and ford dropping their prices for compact bev crossovers it may not be in high demand then. The next prius prime based on the 2023 prius also looks like a really good design but they could have done this 5 years ago, instead of pushing small batteries and fighting plug-ins.

I don't think the current goals are bad, and with Uchiyamada stepping down they can transition. No reason to kill fuel cell development, but R&D needs to go to maybe 2 bev platforms and targeted vehicles, not lobbying for hydrogen or adding some more low volume hydrogen vehicles.

 

In my model 3 long range tesla says it will take 9 stops from boston to miami with 4:35 minutes of charging. When they finish upgrading those chargers to all be 250 kw it will be faster. My guess with your short pit stops you would take an extra 3 hours or so in the tesla. yes if you needed to only stop at L2 instead of superchargers, it probably would take 5 days.

 

In winter?