Featured Toyota Stays Modest about EVs as It Relaunches bZ4X after Recall

It is very interesting to watch a chapter in history conclude and a new one start. We've been through it many time now, but this particular one was especially important. I'll climb up on my soapbox now...

From the Prius perspective, it went through the very predictable product cycle. Generations 1, 2, 3 were basically textbook examples of great success adapting to an increasingly wider audience while significantly raising production volume at the same time. Generation 4 is almost inevitably a struggle, hit or miss regardless of what's tried. The market has seen it all at that point. It's why you must spread the technology elsewhere, putting greater emphasis on diversification. In other words, mission accomplished. If it fails, no big deal since the business itself moves on. That's why seeing "Hybrid Reborn" was such a test of patience. Generation 5 must be a reset to be successful. For it to capture the market again, it must redefine itself.

From the Toyota perspective, we'll see the end of Prius as a hybrid. It will become a PHEV only, then pass the thrown over to a BEV successor. That electric-only contender is bZ4X. Many of the traits which drew founders to the first generation Prius are evident in this first dedicated platform from Toyota. And just like with the second generation Prius, we can expect a full refresh for the follow up. Anyone remember just how duck-out-of-water that first Prius was? It has some standout design features, but clearly wasn't a configuration for the masses. We will see that "clean sheet" platform along with the new motor under development.

From the industry perspective in our market, early-adopter stage has come to an end. All the low-hanging fruit is gone. We can see Tesla slipping from milking opportunity to changing plans on the fly. GM is a mess, again we are witnessing "over promise, under deliver" play out right before our eyes. VW is starting to feel the burden of what it embarked to do. Meeting expectations is taking far more difficult than imagined, but they are doing an excellent job of keeping at it. Ford is facing serious challenges moving forward. As for the smaller players here, that potential is promising. It's a matter of appealing to their customers... which is what Toyota is striving for.

With regard to the CEO change for Toyota, that's the key to moving on and very well timed. Just like any other business, sunsetting old projects, accelerating new projects, and investment in research & education all get a fresh consideration. Some difficult decisions of the past, will now be much easier. Naysayers have nothing to say now. My focus though is the BEV purists, seeing them finally respond to the wake-up call. They did not want to face the reality of how much still needs to be done with battery chemistry, charging infrastructure, consumer understanding, and political policy. The naïve nature of their prior stance has now become apparent. Toyota saw this all along. They play the long-game, ignoring rhetoric along the way... and will continue to, staying modest and biding their time.

For me, I'll be getting a bZ4X. That means a patient wait, since I want to support sales here and inventory hasn't reached this region yet. With Minnesota being the only ZEV state in the Midwest and those rules officially kicking in 11 months, an expectation of backlash is growing. Being able to show a less-than-perfect vehicle purchased locally can be very rewarding to own & drive goes a long way... exactly as I did over 22 years ago with the first Prius. We have no idea what my wife will do with her 2017 Prius Prime. With level-2 charging available at work and at band practice, driving around with just electricity is working just fine. It may be a matter of waiting to see the variety of options on the way and sharing my 4X some in the meantime.

Anywho, you now have my thoughts on the matter at hand.

 

Ordinarily, I would agree but:

Given market share, the ~66% who have bought Tesla like my 2019 Model 3 Standard Range with 91,000 miles, suggests these thoughts:

• "battery chemistry" - is and likely to remain an elusive set of solutions with evolving answers. Starting with cell formats, 18650, 2170 (mine), 4680, and LFP, Tesla picked what was the best at the time. There are at least two nickel chemistries, NCA and NMC and battery technology continues to improve in spite of often inflated claims by some startups and college labs.
• "charging infrastructure" - should also include the vehicle chargers. For example, our former 2014 BMW i3-REx had a CCS-1 fast DC charger interface but would only accept 50 kW. Our 2017 Prius Prime could only charge at about 3.3 kW. The Prius Prime was especially irksome because the regenerative charge rate was so much higher than 3.3 kW. Even if high regeneration rates are brief, they should be initially available when plugging into a charger and then ramp down. Thankfully, the BMW taught us in 2016 how badly Electrify America's fast DC chargers could be. In one case, we had to return home on the range extender engine because all four chargers could not or would not work. It is a sad lesson the CCS-1 advocates have been and are re-learning (see Insideev.com.)
• "consumer understanding" - with four years and 91,000 miles, I am still learning how to optimally drive my Tesla Model 3 ... and I have engineering skills. The non-technical often leave their dealership whose hobbled, public L2 charger is just another parking spot for excess inventory, With clueless dealers, their non-technical customers have no chance (see Insideev.com.)
• "political policy" - reminds me of Will Rogers who quipped, "I am not a member of an organized political party. I'm a Democrat." Tesla has sold the single largest EV fleet, 66-75%, and charging network but some Democrats act as if they want Elon's scalp. For example, an EV meeting at the White House that did not invite Elon Musk.

There are strong economic reasons why BEVs are our future: (1) fewer moving parts; (2) efficiency, and (3) recycling. The ultimate flex fuel, my Model 3 runs on natural gas, nuclear, coal, wind, and solar power. So the recent spike in gasoline prices did not even show up in my Tesla driving.

I do not regret my Prius days as my first one ran 260,000 miles until 'the wheels fell off' (i.e., an unrepairable part failed.) Our last Prius, a 2017 Prime, was traded in for our 2019 Tesla Model 3. In contrast, our 2014 BMW i3-REx taught us how much battery our PHEV needs, 72 mi, and the value of a light-weight, serial hybrid, range extender.

Bob Wilson

 

What is GM's recent "over promise, under deliver"?

But it isn't surprising. While the gen2 Prius was having its big success, Toyota was bringing out the gen2 Tundra. The biggest, thirstiest pick up with an EPA rating. Plus its SUV sibling, the Sequoia. If the Japanese government hadn't been supporting the reduction of emissions in their cities, Toyota likely wouldn't have done the Prius.

 

That is a twist of facts to reinforce the "behind" narrative. Toyota wasn't against global warming, they were against the proposed approach. Don't even try denying how terrible the policy has been either. That battle is lost, as evidenced by the new tax-credits. The reality that Toyota saw it coming and no one wants to admit their own error, we know have quite a mess to unravel.

 

Haven't noticed the problems with Ultium yet? Delivery of only 72 Lyrics and 86 Hummers provides a clue there is something impeding rollout. Expectation at this point was far more would be in the hands of owners, especially with so much touting about orders. And remember the fine-print in the Chevy television commercial last Fall? Equinox EV delivery was supposed to start Spring 2023.

Making matters worse is the warning about "premature lock-in" for batteries is starting to sink in. We're seeing a massive move away from dependency on nickel & cobalt. Ultium didn't go in that direction. Amount within was reduced, but not eliminated. Benefit from elimination, as LFP has demonstrated, is becoming apparent. Those tradeoffs appear to be worthwhile... just like other seemingly less competitive technologies ending up the choice for mass-market use.

It's the same old game of engineering by press-release and having minions spread hype.

 

Come on John - you can't have it both ways. If a failure to ramp up plugin or EV production is "The" Benchmark ... then where does that leave Toyota. Many of us here would have a RAV4 Prime right now or a BZ - but for the low production. By your benchmark, it would be Tesla that was the one with the greatest foresight having secured large quantities of batteries - ability to drop their prices when incentives run out Etc.
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Twisting what facts. When it came to spending against global warming and environmental policies among corporations across the globe and in multiple markets, Toyota was in the top ten. They were the only transportation company. The rest were energy and oil companies.

Despite now stressing the importance hybrids have in reducing emissions, Toyota sided with the Trump administration against California for more efficient fuel economy targets. They were saying no improvement was the approach then.

These aren't comments about Toyota being behind on EVs. They are about Toyota fighting change for the sake of profits. Why else would the company with the hybrid expertise fight against policies that would help those sales? Because those policies would hurt the non-hybrid profits. Toyota slow rolled the release of hybrids for the sake of maximizing profits. Now that other companies and governments are favoring another solution, they are crying about hybrids not being considered.

Was GM suppose to be immune to the market forces that have been in play for the past couple years? Or immune to potential problems with new products? How many bZ4X's has Toyota delivered to date?

Ultium is a suite of EV drive train and battery management technologies. It isn't married to a specific chemistry. As you said, there are trade offs. One chemistry is not the best for all applications. Is the new Prius using LFP? Its lower energy density means it requires more space, which is limited in a car frame. Tesla isn't using LFP in their longer range models for that reason. If Toyota is using LFP, they aren't using it in all applications neither.

GM not using LFP now does not mean they can't switch to it in the future.

 

According to InsideEVs, Toyota is trashing their e-TNGA platform to get a more coherent EV platform that doesn't require parts other TNGA based platform have to make room for, like engines, gas tanks, exhaust components, transmissions, etc.. Again probably why they are taking a couple of days off in February at the plants that produce the bZ4x, Subaru Solterra, RZ 450e, etc (Production Plan for February | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website).

Toyota Said To Develop EV-Only Platform Just As CEO Steps Down

 

There was leak, and thread somewhere here, about that a month or so ago. Toyota's plan for EVs was built upon a slower adoption rate. Using a platform shared with ICE vehicles would have meant savings through the use of existing factory lines for those projected growth rates. That growth didn't happen, even in Japan. It was faster, and companies like Tesla with dedicated EV lines and platforms have a cost advantage at that scale.

 

Not only did GM hype their new offering, they also took a large number of orders. Toyota never made any such promise.

GM also over-promised timing for Equinox EV... View attachment 236561

The plan all along was to upgrade to a "clean sheet" design at some point. Recent choice was to accelerate that plan and limit the spread of e-TNGA. We were told from the very beginning the initial rollout design was not optimized and would be prohibitively expensive for mass production (very high volume).

 

that's why i have owned 5 toyota's, they never make a mistake

 

Were they orders, or reservations? Quick poke at the Chevy site show reservations for the Silverado EV direct you to a dealer. Plenty here had reservations for the new Prius and Prime before they went on sale.

GM closed reservations for the Lyriq and Blazer EV when the list hit their projected production numbers. Ford did the same with the Maverick. The list for Mercedes' very expensive, boxy SUV is going to be closed for another 2 years. These aren't like the reservation list for the Mirai I put my dog on. Many on the list for the 2023 Prii started on a list for the 2022.

 

In this video, it's easy to see that Charge-Mode was maintaining an average of about 7.2 kW.

 

Charge mode is DC charging, not AC.

 

Hummm, I went with the bottom model. I'm beginning to wonder it the upper trims might have cured a lot of the things that pissed me off. Things you've not had a problem with.

When we went to Detroit, Toyota offered us different grades and I really wanted their $2,000 TSSP but it was only offered on the ~$6,000 more expensive, top trim. To get TSSP would have cost almost $8,000 more and I asked for time to think about it. Then I went with the cheapest trim. That might have happened with our 2017 Prius Prime.

Bob Wilson

 

Interesting. That would explain some differences we have observed.

 

I didn't think the higher trims of the Prius Prime got a faster charger like the Rav4 Prime.

The US model doesn't have DC charging by plug. It can only use AC, and that rate is limited by the charger installed in the car. That charger plays no part in the DC charging the car is doing through regen or charge mode. Expecting the 3.3kW AC charger to provide current above its rating is like expecting a 15 amp circuit breaker to let 20 amps through.

 

Yep discussed in the Lexus TX thread - #15. But apparently they were not correct either. Lexus only recently started using the e-TNGA (or GA in Lexus parlance) for their RZ 450e but they also use the GA-C to make the UX 300e as well as the UX 250h and were about to modify the GA-K platform for a TX BEV. Looks like that is going to be squashed and consolidation is imminent. One thing to use a a GA or TNGA platform for a PHEV, which still needs a liquid fuel engine and its required additions, and another for just batteries, motors, and HVAC. They can also adjust their design language for a BEV only TNGA, which somehow seems to tweak alarm bells for some.

 

TSS-P is on our 2017 base

the base doesn't have a lot of the other options that available on the higher trims
though I don't know which of those other options would have made a difference to you when you were shopping for a Prime.

maybe bait will quote another of my posts to add some Thanks Capt. Obvious wisdom for all our edification.