Featured Toyota President Says 'Silent Majority' Not Convinced on EV-Only Future

There are plenty of them . . . . even from Toyota . . . . but primarily they're just sold in Asian countries. Enjoying our red headed step child status? Sure, the argument is the market wouldn't make it profitable.
.

 

BMW is actually doing quite well on it's BEV and PHEV offerings. My gf test drove an i4 with me last fall and it holds up pretty well in my Tesla model 3. Car and Driver preferred it. I didn't like the exterior design or the hanz Zimmer sound track but she kind of liked it. Range is quite good if you don't go for the bigger tires. Efficiency is worse than the tesla and the charging network is worse, but I expect bmw will catch up in coming years. If people buy the i4 instead of an M3 (19mpg) that will save a lot of gasoline, and the electrons won't matter that much. Her boss recently bought an id.4. I didn't like that one at all.
2023 BMW i4 Review, Pricing, and Specs
https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=45992&id=45494&id=46204

We kind of want one gasoline vehicle so she ended up with a used X3, but would have probably bought a rav4 prime if the toyota dealer hadn't been gouging and could provide a test drive. The X3 phev implementation was quite poor and it is not offered this year.

 

How e-fuel is worse than the hydrogen fuel cell fraud per Mr. Google:

• 'Porsche e-fuels: the background
  
  Synthetic fuel – called eFuel by Porsche – is created by splitting water into oxygen and green hydrogen, then combining CO2 with the green hydrogen to produce synthetic methanol, which is then converted into e-fuel, which can be used in regular combustion engines.Dec 21, 2022"
• "How much does Porsche e fuel cost?
  
  What does it cost? Porsche pegs the initial price at 10 euros per liter ($44.73 per gallon as of this writing!) but expects efficiencies of scale and technology to reduce that to $7.57/gallon by 2026.Dec 20, 2022"

Since the first step, water electrolysis is so inefficient versus charging a battery directly, the first step is the best case, hydrogen fuel fraud.

It was Munro that sold me on the BMW i3 and given the poor state of fast DC chargers in 2016, the REx version:

BTW, Munro has an abridged version of their BMW i3 teardown analysis. Based on 2014 costs, the manufacturing and materials costs they like battery costs have significantly fallen. My only complaint is the two-cylinder, modified motorcycle engine that could have been more efficient.

Bob Wilson

ps. BTW, my second wife got the BMW i3-REx. If today I had to replace the Tesla with something else, it would be a used BMW i3-REx ... they are an under appreciated gem:

The extended EV range of the 2017 is not needed for my retired lifestyle. So I would probably go with a 2016 and apply some tuning tricks.

 

Maybe $44.73 per gallon would be a good thing (if that were the only internal combustion fuel available). It sure would convince me to pollute less.

 

Before that price:

Source: Wood gas vehicles: firewood in the fuel tank - LOW-TECH MAGAZINE

Coal or wood gasification units mounted on the vehicles.

Bob Wilson

 

My dad would probably do that. But seeing how people can't even drive a stick shift I don't see very many adopting a wood gassifier any time soon especially if EV prices keep coming down.

 

How efficient would it be to charge your Model 3 in Alabama from a wind generator in Chile?

Porsche's goal with this e-fuel isn't for it to compete against EVs. It is to have a carbon neutral fuel for the people that want to continue enjoying motorsports and their recreational ICE vehicles. They were upfront about it being expensive. When they announced the project pre-pandemic, the target cost then was $8 to $10 a gallon. 100 octane racing gas is currently in the $12 to $17 a gallon range in the US.

In the broader scale, batteries simply aren't going to work for every application. They aren't a good fit for planes and ships, and the battery supply is not a non-issue. The storage and transport advantage over hydrogen does make them a better fuel for PHEV cars.

Then while the wind is always blowing somewhere, that doesn't mean you have a cable running to where it is. This plant was build in Chile cause wind power has a high utilization rate there. The location does not invite the installation of high power lines to get that electricity to large population centers.

BMW got better with carbon fiber. It's why they are making more use of it in their cars. Converting the production lines to full CF cars like the i's was not a trivial cost. Keeping the traditional chassis lines going, and using more CF parts in them, was seen as the better option by BMW.

That price is based on 34,000 gallons from the first year of production. That amount isn't being sold; it's going to Porsche's race teams for demonstrations. In three years, the plant should reach the planned full commercial production amount of 145 million gallons annually. Then it is $7.57 a gallon. Which is comparable to racing fuels, or perhaps tolerable for an EV range extender.

 

While I would cringe to pay nearly $8 per gallon today, I don't see it as a bad idea. If it can be confirmed the stuff is made from our atmosphere with renewable energy I'd buy it until I could afford an EV.

 

To each their own but e-fuel is unlikely to make me an e-fueled, ICE racing fan ... nor admiration from traditional fossil fuel ICE owners. This e-fuel plays into the narrative that we are Bambi-loving, leaf-lookers when in my case, I'm just cheap at ~$0.027/mile or ~$2.75/100 miles.

Bob Wilson

 

Why do people have to make such associations, take such one sided stances? It's like an all or nothing perspective. Why can't there be a middle? Get gasoline from the air, ICE's still run, everyone should be happy right?

No offense, but that sounds like the kind of reasoning I get from people who chop the catalytic converter off their truck and sell it. and throw in a straight pipe. They get money for it and better fuel mileage, not to mention power. "Air pollution is all a hoax anyway" they say.

Although, on that note, I am tempted to go get my 1985 VW diesel. It's much cheaper to own and operate than my Avalon. It only cost me $600 and seems to be immortal as it just won't die. I've also gotten as much as 60mpg out of it. No car payment, 60mpg, hardly any maintenance. And the best thing is that, unlike the Avalon, the radio actually works. Actually the best thing is it's a stick-shift, but the radio the next best thing.

 

We had one such nut who did that with his pickup only it failed miserably. The pickup engine ran like crap and fuel economy went in to H*ll. I had to explain to him how oxygen sensors work. His raised pickup soon disappeared.

Bob Wilson

 

Well you don't want to remove the oxygen sensors. The first oxygen sensor is the one that changes fuel metering and isn't affected by having a working catalytic converter or not. The catalytic converter doesn't work in my gen 2 Prius and it still gets 45mpg or so.

 

I think you are misunderstanding the purpose of these green fuels. They are quite unlike the case for hydrogen.

Porsche wants to be able to keep their customers with their beloved cars able to drive them in places where the government stops the sale of oil based gasoline. With a new 911 costing around $200K paying twice or 3 times more for a green fuel versus oil based gasoline should not be such a hardship if owners want to do that. My neighbor bought a gas guzzling v8 1968 late '60s GTX last year, as he always wanted one and got a big bonus from his job. He mainly keeps it in his mothers garage and won't drive more than 1000 miles a year in it. These are toys. He went to college in southern california, I can see them banning oil based gasoline, but these classic cars will still have people that want them on the road. In austin, we are never going to be without any gasoline, but when oil runs low some may be green and some from natural gas.

Hydrogen - requires bulky tanks with today's technology. This makes vehicles like the GTX and 911 nearly impossible to replicate as hydrogen vehicles. Porsche will make bev and phev sports cars using motors, but the old ones people still love. Plymouth gtx and pontiac gto are not going to be built again with today's regulations. For new phevs it really should be possible to have a much lower carbon footprint fuel (biomethanol or e-methanol or gasoline derived from them) . For the old cars, there is no substitute, and it will increasingly decrease percent of miles traveled as these things age.

The big thing green methanol based fuels brings is the ability to blend with natural gas based methanol fuels (first step in e-gasoline is methanol) to transisition from oil, to natural gas to biofuels and electricity based liquid fuels. You can build the factory and increase the green mix as fuel becomes available. Today green methanol before subsidies is about 3x the cost of methanol from natural gas, but technology can bring the price down, and unlike hydrogen, it is easily and cheaply transported.

 

And when non carbon neutral fuels are banned, what is the plan for your i3 REx on road trips? That is the future owners are looking at in Europe.

Porsche is doing this so legacy cars can still be used. Some have voiced that scrapping a low use car that works is a sin because of production emissions for new. The aspect Porsche isn't pursuing, or simply haven't voiced, is in the use of e-fuels to stretch battery supplies and keep car costs down. A PHEV with a 50 to 100ish mile EV range using a carbon neutral fuel can be as effective a long range BEV in reducing carbon emissions.

We need green hydrogen. The fraud with hydrogen cars was in glossing over the costs, and pushing it out before it was commercially ready. Toyota is now looking into liquid hydrogen for cars. How much will it cost to convert current stations for that? Porsche never sold their e-fuel as something to allow people to keep using their ICE daily drivers, and they were predicting a low of $8 gallon at the start of this project, before the inflation spike. For new cars, they aren't fighting electrification.

Cars and trucks aren't the only things with an engine. This can be used to make fuel for planes. With 30 year service lifes, there isn't going to be a rapid switch to an EV or hydrogen plane, if such became available. Methanol already seems favored for ships by the industry.

Porsche is doing this for their existing customers, but the project will prove how viable it is for other uses.

 

I live in Huntsville Alabama which is not part of Europe. The VW plant in Chattanooga won’t sell me one either.

Well they succeeded with you. Buy some and let us know how it works.

Bob Wilson

 

Well, duh, VW's roll out plan for the ID EVs has been to release in Europe first, and then North America a year or so later. We didn't even get the ID.3, 5, or 6. Unless the Buzz is such a hit in Europe that VW can't meet demand, you'll be able to buy it as a 2024 model year.

 

Toyoda is stepping down from the company, near the end of the year. New CEO announced.

Toyota CEO steps down and admits to his limitations amid EV revolution | Fortune

Story might be behind a paywall.

 

Hummm, just as the Tesla 2022 Q4 financials were released. <GRINS>

Bob Wilson

 

"The father buys, the son builds, the grandson sells, and his son begs."

Might be coincidence, might not. But it looks like the BOD of the company has at least some insight of where the industry is headed, where as Toyoda kept his eyes closed. Pink slip?

 

Nope, Toyoda is becoming Chairman of the Board.

I think this may have to do with the major review Toyota is performing of their EV plans, and Toyoda is stepping away from the day to day operation.