Featured Toyota President Says 'Silent Majority' Not Convinced on EV-Only Future

Because traction control was on the car to protect the hybrid system, not help with traction.
Without the ability to turn it off, the traction control could get you stranded on snow or ice other cars could work their way out of.

 

Really ....

Memory is not kind when we get older

.

 

One question (that may have been asked).
What is the majority's opinion of EV's? There are tens of millions of cars sold worldwide each year, and in over 100 of those countries Toyota sells cars. What percent of worldwide buyers are going to want an EV?

I would like to point out that a lot of countries are not anywhere close to being able to support even a small percent of EV's. Most of Africa doesn't have electricity. Many countries in Asia wouldn't be able to support it right now. From what I've seen and understand, nearly all of Central and South America have homes with 30A 120V (about 3,000 useful watts) service per house, and in many cases that service serves more than on house.

Not to mention there are some very cheap ICE cars in some countries that would need some very cheap EVs in order to replace them.

 

I think those Central and South American homes have a better electric supply than half the ones in Japan.

The countries that can't support an EV fleet are also aren't major producers of carbon emissions. There will be some exceptions, like India. It likely has large areas where EVs are practical, and it is the third largest emitter of CO2. It also has more people that the entirety of Africa. The main sources of CO2 on the planet are mostly the first world nations with the means of supporting EVs.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/092915/5-countries-produce-most-carbon-dioxide-co2.asp
CO2 Emissions by Country - Worldometer

Just getting the other countries more efficient ICEs, like hybrids will help for now. Besides their not being able to support EVs, the limited output of EV production now means they likely wouldn't get EVs. They likely aren't getting the latest and greatest in terms of clean, efficient cars. Heck, low fuel prices meant the US was generally last of the major markets to get Toyota's latest efficiency tech in engines and transmissions. Well, not the cheap models in those countries. The Prius is marketed as a luxury car in Central and South America.
Prius-finds-traction-in-Latin-America | Tire Business

tl;dr The countries that can't support EVs or plug ins also aren't the major source of CO2 emissions. Get them more affordable hybrids while the nations with higher emissions get plug ins.

 

Worldwide, there were about 7.8 Million “fully electric vehicles” sold.
EVs Made Up 10% of All New Cars Sold Last Year - WSJ

For those of us that love more data: EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database

This has been led by China and Europe.
There are places where new technology doesn’t work due to poor infrastructure. Do we stop progress because it doesn’t happen everywhere at the same rate?

As for cheap ICE cars, there are also cheap electric cars. The cheapest I have seen are made in China. (I believe about $10,000 USD)

 

Not really a fair comparison since nobody's importing those and they probably wouldn't be accepted for safety reasons.

Getting that first EV out the door: ∞ improvement over the past! Huge breakthrough in little time!

Getting the next 100 million EVs out the door: 40 year slog that makes for small numbers much of that time and feels like little progress.

and you're right- just because it doesn't feel like progress doesn't mean it isn't worth doing.

 

My response was to a question of the worldwide market. Those cheap Chinese cars definitely play a role.

Worldwide, it is estimate that there are 27 Million BEV+PHEVs. I don’t think it will be 40 years to reach 100 Million. More like 4

 

Adoption pattern of new technology:


Comparing ICE vs EV:

• End product +95% recycle
  • batteries
  • motor and vehicle copper
• Ultimate flex fuel: natural gas; coal; nuclear; wind; solar, . . .
  • ~ 1/3d cost per mile
• ~100x fewer moving parts
  • eliminate: oil changes; engine air filters; PVC changes, and; exhaust
  • no catalytic converter risk
• Quality: low noise, and; low vibration
  • improved crash worthy without an ICE battering ram
• Excellent investment
  • smaller factories and fewer workers
  • growing supply sources

Priuschatters are in transition from already from ICE, to hybrids, to plug-in hybrids, and eventually battery electric with variable penetration.

Bob Wilson

 

I've been all over Mexico and every home that I've seen is on a 30A fuse (on a 120V, not a 240V line). Talking to people I know from Ecuador, Peru, Guatemala, Belize, Argentina, Honduras, Venezuela and Columbia, it sounds like all of those countries have about the same electrical service except maybe Venezuela.

Of course you could charge at a normal 15A outlet charging rate off that as long as you don't have too much else connected. The problem is that that service sometimes is for more than one house and more than one vehicle owner. Plug in two EV's and you'll have to turn off all the lights and unplug your refrigerator. And with more and more electronics and people getting A/C units, I see where people turn on a coffee pot and blow a fuse all the time. You have to turn off the A/C to make coffee down there.

They also complain about the cost of electricity. Of course, a lot of people in Mexico, and I would guess in similar countries, rob electricity.

Good point. Get the USA and China EV's and things would change drastically. I wonder what percent of worldwide car sales go to these two countries.

No, but the question was what percent of those that aren't ready make up the entire car market. I'm just trying to see this through Toyota's eyes, trying to see if they make any sense at all.

Good to know. For an example, the cheapest new car in Mexico is about that same price.

Yes, but what would the whole world market look like on that graph?

True, but if you're in a city with almost 9 million people in it, many of them car drivers, but not one of them has enough electric power at their home to charge at more than a few hundred watts, what good would owning an EV be?

In the USA and Europe, yes, we have a lot of electricity already. In the USA a lot of people can addopt an EV because they have at least a 50Amp service with 240V. But a lot of countries don't have that kind of sevice.

 

You can find the market share by countries here: https://www.factorywarrantylist.com/car-sales-by-country.html
The USA & China make up about 60% of that.
You can add up the countries which you feel don’t have the needed infrastructure.

BEVs + PHEVs last year have about a 10% worldwide market share. If you add FCEVs it rises to about 10%
So if you put a spot at 10% on the graph, that is where we sit globally.

As an aside, I believe that the country percentages are old.
The S-curve is a standard that many new technologies follow. That yardstick doesn’t change, just the placement of different countries on it.

 

Most countries in Asia and Middle East have 220v by default which is a lot better than 110v and is ideal for EVs. Even in the third-world country that I came from people are starting to buy more EVs.

 

I think that answers my question. There's a push in both China and the USA to get us going on EV's, and that represents the majority right there. Now how fast the adoption will be is another question. But saying there's no worldwide interest in EV's seems short sighted to me.

I don't need another car yet, and I go back and forth over what I'd get if I did need one.* But I am very interested in buying an EV again some time in the future.

*I'm rather bipolar in my tastes for cars: Big car, no, small car, no, big car, no, small car. EV, no, stick shift. no, diesel car, no, EV, no, something with a stick shift, no, EV. New car, no, old piece of junk to restore, no, semi-used, no, new car, no, used car.

 

It is 100V in Japan. I think the outlets are only 6 amps. Looks like you pay more to have higher amp service to the residence; it goes from 10 to 60 amps for homes. Then the country grid is split east to west, with one being 50 Hz and the other 60 Hz.

The gen4 Prius Prime took over 10 hours to charge off a home service, with faster Level 2 not possible. This is why fast DC charging was standard, and Toyota thought a solar roof worth while.

Another thing to consider with whether an EV could work in a country is the mileage and trip distance. Average miles in Japan is under 6,000 for instance. If the people of a country aren't driving great distances, the electric service they have could be adequate for their needs. Plug ins can also be made cheaper with smaller batteries.

The places were an EV couldn't be supported aren't likely major markets for even Toyota's ICE cars, and most that Toyota does sell there are using older technology. The Prius is sold as luxury in those places because it is expensive for the market.

 

Depends on your definition of fin. I confirmed my memory before I posted that. I consider the 55-56 to be merely fenders compared to the 57.

 

I was in Nepal in 2019 and I saw several smallish electric motorcycles (bigger than a moped) parked next to their dirt floor homes with a !8" square solar panel sitting on the seat charging them.

Oops...18" square
Mike

 

That's the way to do it! I could see myself doing that if I didn't have the leg strength to bicycle myself.

 

There are many variables involved. For instance, there is
Want VS Need VS Viable VS economics VS longevity, etc .

One of the questions that is seldom asked concerns the break even point. If you only travel a few miles a week or per month, will you make a positive impact on global warming by switching to a BEV and melting down your ICE?

Then there is also the question of emotions and fear of the unknown. This week I discussed the basic question (will your next car be a BEV?) with a group of seniors in an urban area of lower central Oregon. None of them would buy a BEV as long as their current model (HEV or ICE) was still available. Most did not want to plan any aspect of their daily driving. They were not trusting of the technology that might leave them unable to make a 70 mile trip (one way) to the hospital complex (in network for their insurance) in an urgent care situation.

This is not a scientifically sound survey, but it does highlight at least one demographic that frequently trades in their cars for new models but that will be resistant to the change to all electric.

 

An excellent and under-appreciated point.

 

Interesting. IIRC, Engineering Explained said, depending on where you drive and and such, it could take between 1.1 to 3.5 years for an EV to make up for the emisions of a very efficient ICE including the carbon produced due to car production. So 12,000 to 52,000 miles, more or less. Of course you also use more fuel for several short trips. But at 3,000 miles per year, that could be somewhere between 3 to 16 years, depending on where you live and what's replacing what.

Sounds like something that could be solved with a little education and experience in such a vehicle, although 70 miles could make such a trip difficult if they have a 200 mile range ev and have only 100 miles or less on it when they have to sprint to the hospital.

I hope more cars like Aptera come out (400 mile or more range and that can charge fairly quickly even off of 120V 15A power).