2023 Prius Hybrid and Prime Price cut?

not gonna happen

if they can't sell them, there will be rebates on top of rebates. that's how they finally purged the first primes.
toyota has smartened up though, and are not committing to a large build

 

They're trying hard to go the opposite way ... not manufacturing enough to meet demand. I think in the long run that will be more detrimental to the brand than making too many. Too many just hurts your quarterly bottom line, but a negative brand impression can last generations.

 

Artificially holding back supply will backfire every time when the other competitors jump on the opportunity. The classic example is GMs early EV lead, squandered until Tesla showed them the way.

 

Trying to direct market forces rather than responding to them will always cost dearly, which is as it should be. The automakers that are doing more of what customers want will be doing better than Toyota. Hyundai and Tesla are eating their lunch, and I suspect they're going to fall a lot further before they turn around.

 

Most of it comes down to waiting for what 2023 will tell us.

Initial reaction to the new Prius seemed to indicate Toyota will begin to squeeze out hybrid competition and force the "all in" automakers to address the rest of their product line, showing how their ICE sales will wind down (think dealers). A complete absence of accountability and no penalty whatsoever is a familiar game we shouldn't be gullible enough to accept from legacy automakers, again. As for Tesla, its struggle with prices, excess inventory, and lack of diversity reveals a necessity for changing plans.

There is also how this first phase of NEVI (National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure) funding gets used. Public charging (both level-2 and DCFC) are distressingly inadequate. Absence of agreement on standards... plug... billing... speed... and even how to enforce abuse (both BEV and ICE)... reveals we have much to work on still. Heck, there are even shortcomings when it comes to DCFC hardware installs. It's not pretty, but this initial NEVI could go along way toward establishing standards and setting expectations for the second phase... in 2027.

While that happens here, we'll be watching how Europe & China address their own unique challenges and how emerging consumer markets (like India) get into the game. It will take many years to deal with naysayers and the misinformed, in addition to challenges related to production & sales too. There is also the political chaos of energy-shift and climate-change to deal with at the same time. This is why Toyota doesn't see this new chapter (establishing BEV transition) we are only now just starting will be fast.

In short, what happened in back 2022 really didn't make any impression.

 

The Tesla price cuts are because they overproduced this year and also because Tesla's stock price is cratering. Neither of those apply to Toyota or the Prius this year. Toyota isn't desperate to unload inventory(they have the opposite problem) and the Prius isn't going to be produced in high enough numbers to meet demand this year at only around 35k produced. The only way we'll see discounts on the Prius will be if Toyota massively ramps up production for 2024 and then the bottom drops out of demand. That's an extremely unlikely scenario given Toyota's rather conservate decision making process.

 

IMHO, price cuts are not the way to move forward. Tesla is suppose to be a high-end luxury brand and by cutting prices they've just slapped every early adopter in the face - and whacked the resale value of the cars currently on the road. While I understand that they need to compete with other manufacturers, temporary rebates could've accomplished the same goals and limit the fall-out.

Hopefully the discount will generate more sales than alienate more repeat customers.

 

notmuch of a price cut imo. more marketing than anything

 

Tesla's stated goal is contrary to the luxury brand concept. They got put there by the pundits when they were the only game in town for EVs, the "shiny new thing" and could price to raise expansion funds because the people who bought them could afford to buy not on the basis of price and practicality. Now Teslas are common in the areas where they were being bought and were affordable to the residents, they have to compete with more competition from manufacturers who provide luxury with EVness and a certain degree of exclusivity. As well as manufacturers who are coming with lower priced and traditional quality. And without the political baggage that has been generated by an erratic CEO/founder who is lock into public perception of the brand. No longer genius with a Midas touch but someone locked into lawsuits (locked in financing quote, full self driving, etc) and more negative publicity every day.

Will the previous buyers be the source of referrals and good press they once were when their purchase is rewarded by a huge drop in value? Will their next car be a Tesla? Will their dealer-less sales model backfire as people with older cars need service and as used cars decline in value so the depreciation works against Tesla owners and not for them.

Additional plants in Mexico and Indonesia when they can produce more cars than they can sell before the publicity?

How should Toyota approach this new market for a new Prius/Prius prime? Cautiously? Major metro areas, CARB states, limited dealers? See how it is received as it may be eclipsed by the coming wave of EVs? Will that work when EVs are more widely available and no longer priced at 2X a Prius?

As has been said, lack of availability drives prospects away. My DIL just abandoned her search for another Toyota. A Ford she deemed equivalent but available now. So there is risk in a low volume approach too. (Her immediate family's prior 4 cars were Toyota. They were happy with the brand. Just couldn't get the Rav4 hybrid she wanted.)

 

In April 2019 the Model 3 SR+ started at $37,500, and was $2000 more by the end of the month. It briefly started at $37,000, and was near that in Feb 2021. Today's price is $43,990. A recent cut of $3000, but $1000 lower than a year ago. They've been changing prices since the beginning. Everybody adjusts their prices, Tesla just doesn't hide behind sales, rebates, and market adjustments.

Adjusted for inflation, the $37,500 price is $43,553.02. I'm not digging into the details, but the 2019 might have needed a several dollar option to have equivalent autopilot to today's Model 3.
Deep Dive Into Tesla Model 3 Price Changes: What's Going On Here?
Tesla Cuts Price Of Model 3 And Model Y Long Range Version
Tesla Hikes Prices on Model 3 / Model Y Again | Tesla Daily

With no dealer network, Tesla can be transparent with pricing; there isn't any factory to dealer incentives hidden from the public. It also means when they add or remove a 'market adjustment', which the recent decrease was, they don't have a dealer to take the blame.

Maybe calling it a rebate would have made those that purchased before the reduction feel better, but region wide incentives, regardless of name, reduce used values.

Luxury is a vague descriptor. Sometimes just having a high price tag is enough to make a product a luxury item. Lotus are expensive cars, but I wouldn't call them luxury ones. From the past PR department, Tesla's benchmark were BMWs for the models they designed. BMWs can be luxurious cars, but the brand stresses performance more. Which is what Tesla targeted; performance.

Tesla's stated pre-Musk goal was to start with expensive cars that could be sold in low volume and still fund development of the next less-expensive model. So started with the Roadster, and worked their way to the Model 3 and Y. They ended up labeled as a luxury brand, but their was performance to show that BEVs could be superior to the traditional cars. The aesthetic trappings of luxury cars weren't going to get people to buy if they thought it was slower than a Prius.

Maybe they have lost their way; distracted by the Cybertruck and Semi. Maybe their current scale can't support a more affordable 'Model 2'. With others entering the plug in market, maybe they don't need to push for such a model of their own. Maybe they are taking the lower pressure Toyota path.

Don't car for Musk, but how much of Tesla's current issues are directly linked to him? The market is down in general. The new federal incetives has an impact on sales timing, like they have in the past. The impact of a rebate to keep buyers from waiting until the new year will have less impact when you don't advertise.

The Prius is heading to retirement. Toyota has chosen to do the bZ line for BEVs. Europe is only getting the PHV because taxes won't let the Prius compete with their local EU made hybrids. The current currency markets probably ha them preferring Corolla hybrids be bought in the US. Importing to North America might be to just support the factory and sales back home.