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Model Y production reduction

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by bwilson4web, Dec 5, 2022.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: Tesla cuts output plan for Shanghai plant for Dec -sources | Reuters

    The planned production cut comes after Tesla reported record sales in China for November.

    The output reduction was first reported by Bloomberg, which said the move was a reflection of sluggish demand.​

    Some of this article contradicts other parts. For now, I note it.

    Bob Wilson
     
  2. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Reduction here in USA - but EU sales seem to be making up for the difference for now .....
    Model Y Boosts Tesla’s European Sales As China, Logistics Challenges Loom
    .
     
  3. DavidA

    DavidA Prius owner since July 2009

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    One can buy a Y just about immediately now in the U.S., at a discount, from stock built up from all the cancellations due to the IRA (possible) tax credit that begins Jan. 1, 2023. Good time for buyers. I had to wait 9 months to get mine. Paid the pre-May price increase and got the $3,750 credit, then the state tax difference was less. That saved about $7K right there. The car is awesome, BTW. Keeping the Prime.

    The U.S. factories are almost caught up to orders now. That might change soon if buyers can figure out what IRA tax credits might become for the 3 and the Y. If the credits are decent enough, orders will spill in and they'll be backlogged again.

    The Shanghai production cut stories are just strange. On one hand, it makes sense if Germany is ramping production for enough Y's to satisfy Europe, and relying less on imports from China. But, China currently produces and exports the cars to a growing number of countries that are now just beginning to sell the Y's, so the production numbers should be going upward. Tesla knows, but the press is not getting the whole story.
     
    #3 DavidA, Dec 10, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2022
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Elon reports we are in a recession that is likely to last to 2025. It is likely to be worldwide given the China market. Yes, it will be a buyer’s market quicker than most of us can imagine.

    This recession will cull a lot of lazy companies but reward the clever and adept. MBAs will be seen as the kiss of death.

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. DavidA

    DavidA Prius owner since July 2009

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    China model Y price down to $38,000 U.S. dollars now. This could happen here.

    Correction: News story just reported that the China Y has dropped to U.S. $ equivalent of $33,000.
     
    #5 DavidA, Jan 6, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2023
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    if i could net a y for 30k after everything, i'd be all over it
     
  7. DavidA

    DavidA Prius owner since July 2009

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    30K is about all they might be worth. I should know. I just bought one a month ago. The car is not made for winter weather, that's for sure. Really starting to regret my purchase.
     
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Do you have home charging? If so, what kWh? It really pays to precondition the car when temperatures are below 60 F. Also, check your tire pressures. Cold weather reduces pressure leading to more rolling resistance.

    My Model 3 experience is sub-freezing temperatures, I'm getting ~325 Wh/mi. Above 50 F, I typically see 220 Wh/mi.

    Bob Wilson
     
  9. DavidA

    DavidA Prius owner since July 2009

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    Tires at 42. Bob, my sig has the charging details - same setup as yours. I do precondition the car, but to unfreeze the windows using the Defrost function, I'm looking at a reduction of about 6-10 kWh each time, and I can't do that at work, because there isn't any decent cell service there to talk to the car with the phone. If I do the Defrost at home, and only when the phone can talk to the car, and if it is plugged in, I lose several kWh alone, and that's while it is charging and keeping the battery warm. The charging cover also freezes shut each night, every night, even when there is no rain, no snow, or even fog. Then, when it works, I can't get the adaptor out of the port for my life. Using that pull tab in the hatchway (when the hatch doesn't freeze shut, which it has been known to do). Not ever going to try to open or close the frunk in low temps. Heck, it doesn't shut very well in warmer temps.

    I work 1.25 miles away from home, and is it really worth it to sacrifice 15 kWh per day and hours of heating for those kinda miles? No. We kept the Prime thank goodness, and on colder days (below 32 - which is most of them) I'm just going to drive that if my wife is done with her errands, because that will use maybe 1 kWh of juice - and no gas until it is under 15 degrees. Absolutely NEVER had a problem with anything freezing shut on any Toyota we've had. Tesla is just stupidly designed in sunny California where they don't experience this stuff there, or they would have put heated elements in the bottom of windows and in the door handles, plus in the charge port door - long ago.

    Really quite disappointed in the Tesla design - weather related. I have had to pour "HEAT" de-icer on the bottom of the windows because the ice buildup + friction there is tight (what is HEAT doing to the trim and paint I wonder?), and have been siliconing the window seal areas to no avail. I've done everything every Tesla users YouTube videos have suggested for preventing this crap in winter weather plus everything mentioned at the TMC forums. Note: I don't have a garage, but that shouldn't matter since lots of drivers have their cars out in work parking lots for 8+ hours at a time, unplugged. My wife won't go near the thing and has told me a dozen times in the last month to just get rid of the car and take the loss before it kills me, but with an expected 30K price drop in even a new-ish used Y, that isn't going to happen. I think you can tell I'm frustrated.

    500 Wh/mi. average for the last week. 280 when it was warmer (meaning 40 degrees). I'm used to about 185 in the Prime.
     
    #9 DavidA, Jan 7, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2023
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Interesting, I also find shorter trips to have much higher, initial kWh ... more than explained by initial acceleration. I'll try to video record my morning trip to the dog park.

    I failed to video the trip but observed the first trip record was -626 kW/mi. The second update dropped to ~198 kWh/mi. The third came in ~245 kWh/mi. Something is going on in the 'Trip' record so I will try to get better data. BTW, there was some discussion that the first trip metrics may include the kWh consumed while parked.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #10 bwilson4web, Jan 7, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2023
  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    HEET is methanol, and iso-HEET isopropanol. Both are used as antifreeze in windshield washer fluid. The near water free HEET could be an issue from the concentration levels, but the car materials are likely safe from them.

    The window spray defroster I once had was mostly isoproponal by smell. Rubbing alcohol, maybe dilute to 50%, could be a cheaper, less concerning option.

    Don't know how well it works as a de icer, but I heard a 25% solution of vinegar can be sprayed on windows as a frost preventer.
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i wouldn't buy a tesla to save money, that's an oxymoron.

    to save money, i would keep my current car well maintained and repaired.

    i would buy a tesla (or any bev) for the environment
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I assume you don’t mind if I save operational money. As for environment, being stuck in traffic is the only time I smell exhaust and hear the racket.

    Bob Wilson
     
  14. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Sorry to hear of the difficulties. Have you reached out to your local service center?
    I understand your frustration, but need to note that I don't believe this is a design flaw. With neither my former Model Y, nor my wife's current Model Y have we experienced similar issues.
    Now, we do park in an unheated garage, but have also been known to have the car sitting outside for hours without the issues you mention.

    Weather is a bit cooler here than Chicago, but not identical in humidity and other factors that may play a role in this.

    Good luck, I hope you find solutions.
     
  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i don't mind at all. just, my electrons cost 4 times as much as yours
     
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  16. DavidA

    DavidA Prius owner since July 2009

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    Thanks! It is a jouney, and journeys have rough spots. It was a few degrees warmer today, so I had a little time to try to sort things out. The driver window dropped the half inch like it was supposed to, with very little pre-heating (5 min.). Since it was free moving, I dropped it the rest of the way and back up again. The outside, and the inside surface of that window was very wet. So I got out of the car and wiped it off with a towel. I repeated those down/ups more than a dozen times, wiping a lot of water off every step. There was a surprising amount of water in there. I think that helped to get a lot of the thawed water out of the door. Of course, every storm this will dump water into the window area of the door(s) all over again. But it was an interesting discovery. How water got to the inside of the window's driver side is a mystery.

    I did not pre-heat as much today, so the wH/mi. dropped to a fraction less than 300 on the round trip. And with that, I conclude, as I always have, that these shortest trips consume the most gas or electric power per mile. This was one of the reasons behind the Prius Prime, so it would make 5 or 6 of these 3-mile round trips to work on only 6.6 kW charges, plus some left over for errands. The Tesla isn't that efficient, at least not in winter. But the Tesla is of course much better on longer trips, which smooths out the power usage curves. I don't speed at 80mph along highways very often, or almost never (vacations are an exception).

    I live unusually close to work. If I could, I'd use an electric scooter for the commuting in good weather. But working at a grocery store, bringing work gear, lunches and crap to work, and coming back with a couple bags of groceries, doesn't allow for a miniscule vehicle. The Prime did this the best (no gas warmup), but I'd have to pry it away from my wife, whom is now getting used to it as her vehicle.
     
    #16 DavidA, Jan 8, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2023
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  17. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Great to hear!

    I wonder if the drainage plug/route in the door is clear?
     
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  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    That sounds worrying. Could internal elements be getting exposed to moisture that shouldn't?

    Aptera?

    There are E-bike versions of these.
    [​IMG]
    Maybe full scooter versions are out there.[/QUOTE]
     
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  19. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    Ever consider a car cover? I used to have 3 cars and a two car garage. I used a Noah fabric car cover that fit in the frunk of the car with the mid engine and it survived ice, snow, wind, and hurricanes and after 8 years the cover was good as new. 12" of snow I'd use a push broom to push off the snow.
     
  20. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Was that car the daily driver? I can see a cover being more of a hassle than plugging in.