Featured Toyota President Says 'Silent Majority' Not Convinced on EV-Only Future

i agree with sal, i think we all have benchmarks for any car we buy. i won't even consider a new car purchase of any kind right now because of the dearth of inventory.
i also want to see the right model at the right price, for me. we have a ways to go, but the good news is that there currently enough models at the right prices to keep bevs growing at a reasonable rate as to not tax the grid until improvements can be made in both supply and renewable energy.

 

Two interesting articles in the last 2 days

https://www.motortrend.com/features/2022-toyota-rav4-vs-hybrid-vs-prime-ownership-costs-to-own/ where the Hybrid is the sweat spot for total 5 year cost of ownership between similar trim level ICE, Hybrid and plug-in hybrid SUVs. Just can't overcome the initial purchase price with fuel savings.

And in the most recent issue of Motor Trend describing a trip from the flatlands to the mountains in a Rivian in the cold, staying there several days and the 15-18 mile range loss overnight and difficulties finding working charging. Granted only one case but in a magazine which is increasing its coverage of alternative power source vehicles.

 

A bit off topic... but related issue.

I am thinking of installing rooftop solar panels sometime in the near future. If that happens, then the fuel cost for a BEV (or EV portion of PHEV) would certainly become cheaper than gasoline counterparts after I recoup the initial cost. But what I have read in recent news is that our utility is denying the installation of new solar panel applications to be tied to the grid citing that the infrastructure in the area is not adequate to accommodate the amount of microgeneration of solar energy to be fed to the old aging grid. Another sign that our grid infrastructure is not keeping up with the new technology.

For this reason, and also with the political uncertainty of the future net-metering policies, if I put a solar panel, it will have to be an off-grid system with battery storage. Whole-house solar-battery backup systems are still very expensive, and currently not affordable for most even with the federal tax credits.

 

utilities are making a fortune, and feeding politicians pockets to allow them to keep raising prices and not improve infrastructure

 

I understand your constraints. So many of the early adopters have investigated solutions. The first step is to get an accurate map of the local charging locations relative to your home and work. I recommend PlugShare.com to first find out what is available. Let me give two examples, my former working situation, and my recent wife's situation.

Here is today's map of J1772 and Tesla SuperChargers in a map of my home and former work location:

• Commuting distance to red box, upper left, is 10 miles each way.
• Nearest walking distance chargers at UAH but requires a parking sticker for a student.
• Next nearest are ~1 mi away which is folding bicycle away.
• Attempts to find external outlet or modify landscape lights to provide an outlet failed.
• Management assigned task to a clueless, facilities worker who got a quote for $7k.

A home owner, I added an external, 50 A, 240 VAC, NEMA 14-50 on my home when I repaired and upgraded the service. The 100 A service line had deteriorated exposing the three power line cables. So I upgraded to 200 A service with an outlet for my EVSE, a JuiceBox 40 Pro. I've used three plug-in vehicles with this charger:

1. 2014 BMW i3-REx - with a 72 mi EV range and modified motorcycle engine driving generator. This was a "10 stop" vehicle because after commuting, 52 mi EV remained for errands. If I needed to go further, the motorcycle engine gave 39 MPG at 70 mph. Bought used, end-of-lease, with 6,000 miles, it cost $29,000. Charging rate, 30 A at 208-240 VAC, it only accepts 45-50 kW on a fast DC charger.
2. 2017 Prius Prime - with a 25 mi EV range, it only left 5 mi EV for errands. This was a "3 stop" EV. After the initial catalytic converter warm-up, ~0.1 gal, it gives 56 MPG on the highway. But it only charged at 16 A regardless of VAC and no fast DC charging. Along with 55 F control law issues, it was traded in, $18.3 K, for the next vehicle.
3. 2019 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range - with initial 240 mi EV range, expected battery degradation is down to 220 mi. It AC charges at 31 A regardless of VAC and has a peak DC fast charging of 170 kW. Normally charged to 87% SOC, it has 190 mi range in ordinary use.

My former wife's map:

• Commuting from Paddock Club, upper left, to work, red box.
• No charging at apartment nor work, the same place I worked.
• Nearest chargers at UAH are walking distance BUT requires a student parking permit.

Initially I loaned her the 2014 BMW i3-REx replacing an unreliable, 2007 Cadillac and some sad pickups from previous boyfriends. There was no charging at Paddock Club nor our common work. But the 72 mi EV range and 39 MPG at 70 mph BMW worked well for her. After my first wife passed, it took 7 months to trick her out of the $1,200/mo apartment to my home where she could charge at will. I also gave her a ring and tricked her into marriage but it didn't last.

At her insistence, we filed an uncontested divorce and she has the BMW. The BMW has a dual-voltage charger and takes 30 A at any VAC as well as up to 50 kW fast DC charging. She is working on her next housing. We continue to share the house while she sorts things out. BTW, our shared work location closed after they lost the NASA contract.

CONCLUSION

EVs are not for everyone. However, a long EV range, plug-in hybrid provides the training to learn what works and save a lot of urban commuting cost. If you are renting, you will be moving. You'll have decisions to make that may or may not include a PHEV with long EV range or a reasonable BEV. Today, "EV ownership" is an applied IQ test.

Bob Wilson

 

Absolutely!
I, in no ways, am saying EVs work for everyone today. My position is the size of the potential market that can take advantage of EVs is much larger than todays market.

I completely agree. Fuel costs can be outweighed by other factors.
The debate is about how much of the market will fall into that category, not if it will for every single individual.
I am not holding the position that you should get an EV. My position is that lots of people are, more and more each year.

I am sorry you ran into the infamous ‘guess-o-meter’. The Leaf had a few issues with it, and for those of us in Northern climates, that was a doozy!

I see you answered your own question, I’ll answer as well though.

As Isaac speculated, the low center of gravity is one factor. That and the weight allow the car to handle much better in the snow.

I also believe an electric motor can make much quicker, frequent, adjustments for traction control than an ICE powered vehicle.
In my ICE vehicle I could always feel when the tires had let loose and traction control was trying to regain control.
In my BEVs, I couldn’t. It reacted so fast when the wheels hit ice or such that unless I was watching the display, I would never know traction control had engaged.

One of the reasons RWD ICE cars handle poorly on snow and ice is the large mass (engine, etc) at the opposite end of the car. Electric motors and inverters are very light in comparison. My RWD BEVs handled vastly better than any RWD ICE vehicle I ever had.

The instant heat, is indeed I huge advantage for me.
In addition the ability to start the car remotely, and safely, is a big deal for me. In all the BEVs I have owned this has been a part of the base model and had no additional costs. I realized this may change in the future.

There is range loss in the winter. The range loss I have experience averages 30%. This has never been an issue for me. As the charger network grows, I expect it to be less and less of an issue.

I agree completely. Thank you for sharing some definitions
As I didn’t know your definition of affordable, I couldn’t give you a very focused response.

I also agree that there is some part of the market that always buys used, or always under $25,000.
The big question, in my mind, is, how much of the market fits in that category?

I heard the USA EV car sales this year are about 6%. I believe, at todays prices and options, the potential market is 30%. IMO, lots of room for the market share to continue to grow rapidly.

As more and more completion enters the BEV market, there will be more and more options at better sand better price points. Before we exhaust the potential market share of BEVs we have today, options will grow and prices will come down.

Both of those occurrences will increase the size of the market (both potential & actual).

 

This is a very old 2014 article, so it may not reflect public sentiment for TODAY. But according to this old survey, in 2014, "a whopping 71 percent of car shoppers plan to spend less than $25,000 on their next vehicle purchase — and 43 percent won’t even spend more than $20,000 when the time comes for their next car."

Considering what has happened during the last 8 years, the survey result may not apply to today's car shoppers. But this was the number in pre-pandemic and during the booming economic time. By factoring in the inflation and accepted higher price of cars, if the same survey was done today, the threshold for car purchase budget number might be slightly higher... but again, in a current economic downturn, I would think there are more people with a tighter budget than 8 years ago.

I was certainly in that category of 71% 8 years ago. And even now, at the end of 2022, for our driving situation, I would not want to spend more than $25K on BEVs in today's market. That is because, for us, today's BEVs are inferior to PHEVs in almost all aspects I consider to be important to us. If I buy one, it will have to be a cheap secondary car for around-town drives only. $25K max budget for that second car.

There is no question that the market will expand and more people will be driving BEVs in the coming years. But for the market to mature and the "majority" of car buyers to choose a BEV over a conventional car, a major shift has to happen. And it has not happened yet. The shift is likely to be gradual rather than a sudden change, but again, I will know when that time arrives. I dream of buying a sub $25K BEV of my choice from a long list of BEVs fitting our needs. For now, there is not a single BEV in that category. With the elusive tax credit, Bolt would be the only BEV that will fall in this category in the year 2023. (And maybe Leaf but I'm not sure.)

 

Salamander_King I think a lot like you on the price of new cars. You are not alone

We wanted a PHEV that got a minimum of 50 mpg and at least 25 miles electric range - with an included $4500 tax rebate and a trade in allowance for our trusty 2008 Prius we found a PHEV meeting those criteria for well under $30,000 in May 2019.

When it came time to replace our trusty 2004 Sienna, we wanted at least a 5-passenger vehicle with plenty of cargo space and found one during December 2019 - a nice SUV that was under $25,000 after the Sienna trade in credit. It was from one of the up-and-coming South Korea Automakers and it had every safety option currently available on cars.

We've been pleased with both these vehicles. I hope to keep each for the next 10 years.

It took some searching for these deals and buying the cars at the right time - but - like you - I can't see paying large sums of money for a new car.

I don't think I am emotionally capable of giving someone $40,000 for a car and to finance it goes against all my monetary principals and my impressions of financial common sense.

Realize others think differently and that I am a product of my upbringing and experiences.

Note: Eventually I would like and Electric Vehicle and if I had to make a deal today on one I would head directly to the nearest Chevy Dealer and order a Bolt
2023 Bolt EV: Electric Car | Chevrolet

 

We seem to have had similar car needs. Our 2008 HCH needed to be replaced by the 2015 Gen3 Prius Two. No frill basic HEV that had better mpg than HCH. I paid a total of $23,844 for the Gen3 to purchase in 2015. After 2.5 years, in 2017, if I did not walk into my local Toyota dealership and found an ALL NEW 2017 Prius Prime, I probably am still driving the 2015 Gen3 now. All in all, I switched and flipped three PPs in 5 years, because it was more economical than keep driving the 2015 Gen3. Thanks to the tax credit and huge Toyota rebate. For those three PP's at the end of 5 years, I have spent a total of $10,304. The average cost was ~$180/mo for those 3 PP's (see my comment #8 in this thread). Remind you that this total of $10,304 is for the cost of everything, not just purchasing, but includes, fees, tax, insurance, maintenance, service, accessories, and FUEL both gas and electric. If I have kept driving the Gen3 instead for this period, then I estimated that it would have cost ~$12K more.

In a meantime, we also replaced our 2005 Sienna with a used 2014 Pathfinder Hybrid SUV ~4 years ago. The requirements were that 1) it had to have cargo large enough to accommodate our hauling needs, 2) it had to get better mpg than the 2005 Sienna with V6, and 3) it had to be low mileage and less than $16K to purchase. Well, I could not find any minivan that can fulfill the requirements. For an SUV, a used Highlander Hybrid was a potential, but there was no way I could find decent low-mileage HiHy for that budget. I found a Pathfinder Hybrid at an out-of-state dealer's lot that fit the bill and got it. For the 3+ years we owned the vehicle, it served our needs. But, it was still a gas guzzler by any comparison to a PP. Only getting 23mpg by full tank method calculation. It was also high maintenance cost vehicle even in the short period I have owned it. The average monthly cost to own and maintain this vehicle was a whopping $503/mo after it was sold. Before selling, with higher gas prices and not needing a car for my work, we were using the Pathfinder less and less.

I bought the last PP (2021) in the summer of 21 when I was anticipating a call back to the office and resuming my daily commute. But I never had to go back to my office. I am still working 100% remotely and I don't think it is going to change anytime soon. So, we decided to consolidate two cars into one. Unfortunately, the PP we owned was not large enough for our occasional hauling needs and long trips. We settled on Ford Escape PHEV. I would love to have Rav4Prime, but without the federal tax credit, this car was instantly $10K more expensive than Ford Escape PHEV for very similar mpg, EV range, and cargo space. In the end, I got the car for $32K, but with trading, my out-of-pocket cost was $0.

It is smaller than Pathfinder Hybrid we had, and it is far less efficient than the PP, but if we can live with a single car to do multi-tasks previously done by two different vehicles, I am predicting saving in overall vehicle-related costs such as maintenance and insurance and total fuel cost. I will see if my prediction pans out in about a year. And if the single car for me and my wife turns out to be too difficult to manage, then, I will look into buying a cheap small BEV under $10K, if such a thing exists.

 

Great piece, I am trying to find something more recent than 2014 for the reasons you listed.

What I find most frustrating is that the "average" car price can be found all over the place, but I can't find the "median" price anywhere
The median price would be much more useful in this type of discussion.

I'd also be interested in surveys of NEW car shoppers. I wasn't clear if the above article included shoppers of used cars or not.

 

While the survey result cited in the article below does not have the same questions asked, and it does not specifically say what price range car buyers would pay for a new car, the public perception seems to be similar in 2022 in that many (48%) says BEVs are more expensive than conventional cars. Moreover, the 28% in this 2022 survey responders would pay $0 extra over conventional cars to get in a BEV. Meaning for 100 potential car buyers, close to half thinks BEVs are too expensive and close to 1/3 would pick a conventional car over an equivalent BEV even if the price is the same. Certainly not scientific results, but does give you an idea of what the public sentiment stands as of 2022.

Survey: Price and Range, Not Gas Prices, Dominate Worries About EVs

Highlights:

• Price, range, and poor charging infrastructure were the three top reasons people said they wouldn’t buy an EV
  
  
• 48 percent said EVs were too expensive; 44 percent said they were worried about range; 36 percent said they were worried about where to charge it
  
  
• 66 percent of shoppers said local, state, and federal agencies should offer more incentives
  
  
• 28 percent of respondents said they wouldn’t be willing to pay any more for an EV over its gas equivalent
  
  
• 21 percent said the current high cost of gas wasn’t pushing them to consider an EV more than it had previously
  
  
• If shoppers were to consider an EV, midsize crossovers and pickup trucks are the most popular body type
  
  
• Survey was conducted between April 11 and June 30; 1,982 current shoppers on Autolist.com participated

 

Interesting study - the graph and ranking seems to be an accurate view of factors people consider in a n EV purchase decision.

Here is a recent article from KBB the Blue Book people - it is for average price and dated Jan 2022

Average New Car Price Tops $47,000 - Kelley Blue Book (kbb.com)

 

Sadly, no mention of the Median price. However, they did mention that the average “non-luxury” car price was roughly $43K.
Unfortunately, with my brief look, I couldn’t find what they qualify as “non-luxury”.

 

Yes! That's exactly what I did when I had a Leaf. I used Plugshare and knew where the charging stations were. The good thing is I was able to get lots of free charging. For an example, my electric bill went up $20 per month, max. Some months it wasn't even that much higher. It was a bit more inconvenient to plug into the charging station in the center of town and walk 7 blocks to a store or work. But it was cheaper.

Yes, the size is bigger than it is now. But is it going to be like diesel vehicles that don't even make up half? I can see a large part of the USA and Europe switching to electric. I'm not sure how many will eventually do it though. The market in those areas is bent on having a boxy SUV type vehicle, the type that uses a lot of energy to move. There are a lot of what-if's.

It depends a lot on the where the market is too. All of Mexico wants to live the American dream and everyone own their own car, but all the houses run 120V on a 30A line that sometimes feeds more than just one house. You'd have to replace the entire electric grid there for EV's to have any sort of impact.

Unless the EV's gain so much market worldwide that gas becomes the more expensive model. Then maybe it'll kill off some car markets that would be better off dead in favor of public transportation.

 

My cursory search on the "average new car price in the US" always ended up in the KBB report like this one.
New-Vehicle Prices Increase for Fifth Straight Month, Set Record Again in August, According to Kelley Blue Book - Sep 12, 2022

Many other media outlets are just citing KBB reports. Unfortunately, I could not find the original data source KBB used to compile the report either. I would think their original data are the manufacturer sales report? If so, they must be available publically. Once you find the original source of the sales figure, it should not be difficult to find out what the median price was. If we can find the original source, then I am also curious as to what it is reporting in terms of the "sales price". Were they the actual "sales prices" of individual sales by the dealer, or are they simply the MSRP of the model sold? If it is the latter then that data is not an accurate representation of what consumers were actually paying. Also, how do they consider the leased vehicle? I am sure, on record, the leasing companies purchased the vehicle, but at what price???

 

Another favorite - often obese couples (& some aren't ) where one goes into Walmart on a 95° day, while the other waits in the idling car with the air conditioning on - when they both could easily enough get out & use the stores' air conditioner. What better example is there, that gas is still too inexpensive.
We are now back down in a $2¾/gallon range - but of course the strategic reserves have been sucked dry so that we can keep people sitting in air conditioned cars on hot days.
.

 

I take umbrage at this ignorant point of view. When I drive my 90 year old mother to the doctor, we often stop at Walmart on the way home to pick up her prescription. It's painful for her to walk some days, so she sits in my car with the AC running while I stand in line inside. The heat pump is driven by electricity provided by the pacific northwest hydro system. No gasoline involved.

I learned a long time ago that there are two assumptions that are often foolish to make. The first is that anyone who looks able bodied must be fine. Bad joints and heart disease are often debilitating while not visible to the ignorant outside observer.

The second that that you should never ask a stranger when the baby is due. Never.

 

Toyota's concern is the growth rate of EV sales in Japan. Again, faster than they predicted. The concern for the entire Japanese auto industry is that those EV sales are 30% imports, instead of the 10% for conventional cars. Losing Prius owners to BEVs is just a symptom of the cause that is a topic of another thread here.

 

that's fine .... similar to one of our members here - who - when ever the EV subject comes up regarding great range & recharge times modernly, we get to here, again;
"EV's no good, because I need at least 500e miles & charging in <10 minutes .... & charge locations every 50 miles" type nonsense.
Yes .... there are always plenty of exceptions to all situations.
Jeez - sorry for the failure to mention all the potential exceptions - & hope your mom's feeling better more often.
.

 

Still, a common case 'round here is just somebody (apparently young an' spry) sitting, with rolled-up windows, surfing on their phone, fans cycling on/off, heat wafting out, as we mere mortals walk by. Sometimes on surprisingly temperate days.