Featured Toyota President Says 'Silent Majority' Not Convinced on EV-Only Future

If the major first world markets switch the EV, the price for ICE in those nations could go up as production levels drop from the millions. Motor and battery costs should be dropping during that time. Price parity between the hybrid and ICE could happen. Or we'll see more car situations like Cuba, with tractor engines driving old cars.

I thought you were referring to them having crude blended braking. Haven't heard a complaint about Tesla on that front.

Does your PP stay in the last driver mode it was set too, or default to normal? Maybe it's linked to the key. The selectable regen systems I've read up on were linked to the traditional gear shifters in the car. Meant it needed to be reset everytime the car restarted. I know it can't be the case with every model, but if you are new to a car, you should be preceding cautiously no matter what it is.

 

I think we have to realize there is a technical dimension and a political dimension. Similar to how USA wanted to max out corn ethanol vs. EU wanted max out on rapeseed oil subsidies for biodiesel. Each country will take a look at how they prefer to structure their own mandates. As if we need to have gov't mandates.

Part of Toyota's problem is, USA autos do not want to go down the path (hybrids) that Toyota is the vesy best at. As far back as the 2006 Hybrid subsidies, the whole idea was to block U.S. Toyota buyers from sucking in all the credits, so the credits were rationed out to each company.

 

I'm all for Toyota progressing to all plug in hybrid and EVs and even fuel cells. There is a use case for each.

But I only want them to do it when they can produce in volume something remotely comparable in quality and price to what they produce today.

A compliance car or one obviously inferior to current models from another brand or wildly overpriced will not attract me in 3-5 years which is when I ought to be in the market.

 

I'm not into politics but I do see something here. If you leave it entirely to consumerism, is an all EV future really going to come about just because there's a group of people who think EV's are a good idea?

But if you put in laws that force companies to change, are their new products going to be the same quality as the old models?

EV enthusiasts tend to have this idealistic way of thinking that EV's are going to be better in every way shape and form and therefore everyone will naturally transition to them. But is this really true?

I mean, take diesel engines for an example. They have advantages when compared to gasoline engines. But did their apperance mark the end to gasoline engines? No. We ended up with a world that saw both fit for different use cases. Simply adding EV's into the mix does not mean there will be an all EV future. People and manufacturers will continue to find use case scenarios for both EV's and ICEV's.

Internal combustion engines have to be banned, basically, in order for an all EV future to exist. Either that or there needs to be a major break through that renders everything else way too expensive and inferior. That's what happened when Henry Ford started the production line and added an electric starter to his Model T. Next thing you know, gasoline cars were a tenth the price of steam and electric cars. And now with a starter they were not near as dangerous and hard to maintain as before. Compared to steam, these cars had much better performance and were easier to get around in since you didn't have to add water all the time.

Sure, it's cheaper to fuel a Bolt than a Corolla, and the Bolt has more performance than a Corolla. But the Corolla doesn't have a limited range, it doesn't have the need for me to move to a place that has or will let me install a charger and it still has about the same total cost of ownership overall even with the fuel savings.

 

New technology or a new build method, or both, always have a learning curve. Prices for new tech start high, and new methods mean there will be errors along the way.
A large manufacturer simple can't start without any issues. Asking them to do so is kind of like asking a student to ace a final exam before taking the course.

 

This is a straw man, logical fallacy.
I am an EV enthusiast and I certainly don't hold those beliefs.

I do believe EVs have many advantages and that they will take over a large portion of the market, with or without regulations.
However, I am certainly aware that EVs are not always the right tool for the job.

And no, not everyone will transition to EVs. Heck, there are a number of people who haven't given up their horse and buggies yet

 

"EV world domination enthusiasts"... ???

Sorry, I guess the word "enthusiast" can be interpreted various ways. Kind of like the "enthusiast" that drives an old beater classic because he likes the history of that vehicle and how the thing works and knows the car inside and out whereas another "enthusiast" mainly cares about the looks, feel and brand of his vehicle and may have no idea of how the engine or motor even works or any idea of the technical and historical challenges the vehicle faced in order to even exist.

Still, "large portion of the market, with or without regulations" is still debateable.

 

My prediction is simple. If many models of BEV become available in an affordable entry level class as conventional cars, and charging infrastructure becomes widely available, then people will adopt.

Until then it will be difficult to convince enough people to switch.

 

And a full charge takes 5-10 minutes

 

Or the inconvenience of longer charging times is compensated by something else.

It was not easy to shift gears in the Model T compared to any electric or steam car of the time. But it had enough other advantages that it didn't matter as much.

But as long as EV's are more expensive, don't have many places to charge them, even at home for all us renters, and have short ranges and long charging times, not to mention poor selection of cars (no minivans, station wagons, etc.) why would the average person buy one?

 

Adoption often follows an “S” curve with a long, initial slow part which is where we are. But the slope curves upward.

There will come a time like Norway with a steep upward climb. Then the last 10-15%, the adoption slope will gradually turn horizontal approaching 100%.

Some of us were early Prius adopters but that flattened about 2013. Then the “S” curve descended into a bell curve. The lost Prius adapters became BEV adapters.

Regardless the customers vote with their currency. A former Prius owner, Toyota acts as if it is cheaper to find new customers than keep the ones they had.

Bob Wilson

 

My grandfather’s doodle bug requires you to set mix and spark to keep things running

 

My Nissan Leaf required me to call a tow truck after getting only 30 miles when it said it had an 80 mile range in sub zero weather.

 

If you look at Toyotas product mix, and sales, losing Prius owners to bevs is a drop in the bucket

 

I’d like to better understand your position.
How would you measure “many models of BEV”? Currently there are BEV sports cars, Sedans, Hatchbacks, CUVs, SUVs, PU Trucks.

What is affordable? At the same cost as the average new car? At the same cost as the poverty level?

What do you mean by “widely available”? By some measurements, it is widely available, by others it isn’t.

I have convinced scores of people to buy a BEV. Most likely more, but I know of at least a score.

I don’t have any argument with your statement. I just question when we will pass those benchmarks of yours, if we haven’t already.

For me, it is compensated by the convenience of fueling up in my own garage, the cheap fueling cost, the phenomenal winter performance and many other factors.

 

Those are debatable and don't apply to everyone.

I rent and would either have to move out of town or buy a home in the town I live at (which are way too expensive for me) in order to be able to install an EVSE. The landlord here won't even let me install a satelite dish to watch TV, much less an EVSE, and I don't know of any EV friendly landlords. So unless I can get around on a 120V 15A outlet strung through window, fueling up at home isn't a possibility, although I did make it work for a year with a 2013 Nissan Leaf.

Fuel costs can easily be outweighed by other costs, like the cost of the vehicle itself. Sure, I pay around $200 for fuel per month in a 40mpg vehicle. In an EV it would be closer to $70, if I can get that much electricty into my EV through the 120V 15A outlet. But I also only pay $180 per month for a 5 year car payment that I have less than a year left to pay off. At that rate, the car payment would have to be around $310 per month to be about the same. Mind you I have less than a year left on this car to pay off, but starting another 5 year loan would mean I'd have to keep paying for another 5 years.

Winter performance in my last EV was terrible. The +80 mile range would sometimes cut down to 30 miles. I once had to call a tow truck as I only got 30 miles out of town when the car went into limp mode after charging to 100%. Of course Nissan Leafs aren't well known for having great thermal management.

What do you mean my "phenomenal winter performance" anyway?

 

yes, i would also like to know about phenomenal winter performance vs gas engines.
everything i read about bev's, and what i have experienced with my pip is very poor winter performance

 

You have to read the whole sentence I wrote. "many models of BEV become available in an affordable entry level class as conventional cars".

Having "many models" of BEV in not-so-affordable $40K and above will not help most car buyers whose budget allows only $20-$25K for a new car. Please list BEVs currently available in the US in this price range. Yes, it comes down to what is considered "affordable" to the buyer. And I do understand it differs between you and me and the average American. Even though the "average" new car price has become above $40K now, there are many segments of car buyers looking for a new car in the $20-25K range (and there is a handful of conventional cars that will fit in this category) or a used car below $15K. Those needs are not met by the current market if a buyer wants a BEV.

I can't predict when we will pass those benchmarks, but I will know when there are plenty of models of BEVs to choose from with a sub $25K price tag. And for me, the price tag does not have to be MSRP. I totally welcome subsidies and incentives to lower the initial cost of owning a BEV. After all, without them, I could not have purchased 4 PHEVs in the past 5 years, and most likely still driving a 7-year-old Gen3 which may have cost more to own and operate than a brand-new PHEV.

 

I don't see how winter performance would be any different except: 1) instant heat and 2) if you drive a Rivian or Hummer or something similar with independent wheel torque. But other than that, I don't see even a Subaru being that much better in the snow than a FWD car like my Avalon, much less an EV being "phenomenal" in comparison. My philosophy is that acceleration is not that important compared to braking. ABS already gives us the best braking possible. Having acceleration that matches the traction of braking doesn't seem important to me.

Maybe another thing could be rocking out of deep snow a vehicle with the instant torque kind of like rocking out of the snow with a manual transmission. That's something I really miss, so maybe an EV would be better in that way IF it has zero torque when you let off the accelerator. If it tries to immitate an automatic transmission with a slight amount of torque with your foot off the accelerator then you wouldn't be able to rock it out of the snow.

Edit: Ah! And I forgot to mention low center of gravity. I know lots of people who transitioned from a small compact FWD sedan or hatchback to an AWD crossover or SUV or pickup only to find the handling was noticeably worse in the snow due to the higher center of gravity. A battery on the floor allows you to have a utilitarian vehicle with better ground clearance and yet still have a low center of gravity.