Featured Toyota President Says 'Silent Majority' Not Convinced on EV-Only Future

GOOD, FAST, CHEAP - I choose the first two.

Your gas cost per mile pretty well matches my Prius Prime numbers.

 

If all the lithium goes into EV and the power grid. Then where will we get all the lithium to make Di-lithium Crystals to go warp drive?

 

Depreciation: ?
Intrest: ?
Insurance: ?
Maintenance: ?
Repairs: ?
Taxes: ?
Fuel: ?

I don't think the EPA has numbers for all those. And that's from the perspective that a person could afford any car payment. Try making $15 an hour and having rent triple on you in the past 2 years.

 

It really depends on when exactly is the ‘future’ he’s talking about. Is he talking about 2030, 2040, or 2050? It also depends on the country whether its first-world or third-world. There are poor-countries that still uses soviet/nazi era vehicles from WW2. They don’t have a choice due to poverty.

 

1/3 the cost per mile compared to Prius Prime? I don't understand what kind of driving you do for this to be possible. EPA suggests you can save an average of $150 per year with model 3 compared to prime on "fuel". Surely you're spending more on insurance and on tires as well.

Fueleconomy.gov

 

Don’t call me ‘Surely.’ (Leslie Nelson.) But since you are asking me to show my work:

• $0.0216/mi = ~5 mi/kWh at $0.12/kWh * 90%
• $.0598/mi = 56 MPG at $3.35/gallon

The pisser was the poor 2017 Prius Prime control laws that turned on the gas engine too easily and often. That combined with a 20 mi work commute and too short 25 mi EV range gave me road rage at the piss poor Toyota engineering. But I had a workaround, a 2014 BMW i3-REx.

The BMW with a solid 72 mi EV range and hard engine off meant the Prius Prime became expensive $29k driveway art. Since it was only deprecating, trading it in for the Tesla meant never having to buy gas for the Tesla again..

There are use cases for vehicles I would not own. For example @bisco is happy with an early Plug-in Prius, 11 mi EV range. Also @john1701a is happy with his Prime. But having a 2014 BMW i3-REx, the shortcomings of our Prius Prime were too evident.

Bob Wilson

 

Looking at the current market for a used, 2 yr old-ish (2020) CUV/SUV that (must have): AWD, heated steering/seats, and Auto-start. Secondarily (bonus points): CarPlay, cooled seats, heated rear seats, latest safety/driving aids. Less than 60k miles (typical powertrain warranty)

Using Carvana only to keep pricing apples to apples:

ICE models: $20-25k Nissan Rogue
Hybrid models: $30-40k. Rav4
Plug-in hybrid: $45-55k Rav Prime (2021)
BEV (300+ miles): $55-70k Model Y

 

Your reports were always a source of intrigue. Neither my wife or I ever saw that. We are still enjoying commutes to work and errands around town entirely in EV. It's all about driving circumstances and being able to nail down differences. It's like seeing reports of 4X drives now, knowing they are clueless about influencing factors. Too many factors of influence are overlooked.

I have been preparing to counter anecdotal claims with data captures. Like you, I'll look at detailed logs and crunch those numbers. But I'm also working on an easier way to convey drive information... a quicker, less complex setup than with my prior videos, perhaps even with voice at some point. So, I have been experimenting with how other ODB-II apps have for presentation with my Prime. The hope is PIDs are generic enough or I'll be able to add them manually for 4X reading. Anywho, here's the latest.

 

i would love more range. unfortunately, nothing has jumped out at me with all the available phevs and bevs. plus, i won't pay msrp for something i'm not 100% convinced of.
so it will be the pip for awhile longer, until things get back to normal, or something that fits my driving habits well comes along.
i liked the new prime when i first saw it, but will have to test drive, and that's a bit in the future.
i'd prefer a bev, but only with the right range and right price.

 

If AWD is not a requirement, then Escape PHEV is a great choice. For a brand new 2022 model, if you can pick it up before the end of the year, then the $6834 tax credit still applies. Comes Jan 1, if Ford is sourcing the battery minerals (at least 40%) and components (at least 50%) from the US or from free trade partners, then it will enjoy a full $7500 tax credit. If you can wait for the 2023 model, then you can get wireless CarPlay.

 

I don’t believe the old rebate still applies. Be wary if taking delivery before the 1st.

 

Yes, it does. According to IRS.

Plug-In Electric Vehicle Credit IRC 30 and IRC 30D | Internal Revenue Service
Vehicles Purchased and Delivered between August 16, 2022 and December 31, 2022
If you purchase and take possession of a qualifying electric vehicle after August 16, 2022 and before January 1, 2023, aside from the final assembly requirement, the rules in effect before the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act for the EV credit apply (including those involving the manufacturing caps on vehicles sold). If you entered into a written binding contract to purchase a new qualifying vehicle before August 16, 2022, see the rule above.

 

Thank you, I am still not clear.
The final sentence seems to indicate this is true only if “you entered into a written binding contract … before August 16th, 2022…”.
Or am I reading that incorrectly?

 

The final sentence only applies to cars that qualified by the old rules but would not qualify after 8/16 (no NA final assembly requirement) that were signed into a binding purchase contract before 8/16, but was delivered and put into service after 8/16. For those purchases, the following clause applies. The part I highlighted in red applies to any cars that qualify by the old rule but also qualify by NA final assembly requirement which was purchased and put into service after 8/16 but before 1/1/23. Toyota vehicles purchased after 8/16 are no longer qualified because of the NA final assembly requirement, but Ford Escape PHEV qualifies under the old rule.

Transition Rule for Vehicles Purchased before August 16, 2022
If you entered into a written binding contract to purchase a new qualifying electric vehicle before August 16, 2022, but do not take possession of the vehicle until on or after August 16, 2022 (for example, because the vehicle has not been delivered), you may claim the EV credit based on the rules that were in effect before August 16, 2022. The final assembly requirement does not apply before August 16, 2022.

 

I was amazed at @john1701a video showing a drive home with snow on the streets staying in EV mode. Also having work charging would have mitigated the 20 mi commute vs 25 mi range. Preheating the cabin while plugged in also would have helped but my work schedule made that less of an option. In contrast, the hard EV mode and 72 mi range made the older BMW i3-REx a better match for me.

As for good Prius friend @bisco, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. If or when you go BEV, consider fast DC charging equal to range. The 50 kW max rate of the Bolt is the same as tieing all shoe laces together.

Bob Wilson

 

Isn't there something just out about a delay in the regulations re '23 tax credits so the source restrictions may not apply for the first quarter until the government can get out the regs.

https://electrek.co/2022/12/19/us-treasury-delays-ev-battery-guidance-qualify-for-2023-tax-credits/V

 

Yes, the delay is going to make Bolt so cheap. I am so tempted to pick one in the first quarter of 23.

Jalopnik: The Inflation Reduction Act's Most Stringent EV Credit Rules Have Been Delayed.
The Inflation Reduction Act's Most Stringent EV Credit Rules Have Been Delayed

Posted via the PriusChat mobile app.

 

how cheap are we talkin'?

 

The link took me an article on V2X bidirectional vehicle charging.

Found this, Why Tesla, GM to benefit from Treasury's EV tax credit rule delay

The critical minerals requirement for the battery is being delayed for at least a quarter by the sounds of it. Everything else would be going into effect next year.

$7500 tax credit if the battery is assembled in America. $3750 if not.

 

You must have paid higher prices for gas and your prime should have outdone my hybrid. My son's prime does.

How long would it take for me to recover the difference in cost between a Model Y and the cost of a new Rav4 hybrid Limited loaded?

My '19 Rav4 hybrid cost $37.5k cash new no trade in as I always do better selling my cars, ~$500/year gas cost (fuelly recorded) and an estimated $350/year maintenance costs beginning in the 4th year for the Rav4. Today the Rav4 would be $45k

Today a pretty basic long range AWD Y (to keep functionality equal) would be $65,900. I could take delivery tomorrow on the Y, I'd have to get in line for the Rav4.

I'm going to not even add to the Y cost the purchase costs and installation for a 240 volt circuit for the charger and not add any additional expenses for electricity. I'll round up every figure in favor of the Y. Nor add any difference in sales tax, new vehicle tax, licensing, property tax, etc. Nor add any Y costs for scheduled maintenance. I'll ignore depreciation as who knows what it will be. I'll ignore the expected life of the Y's battery. Insurance would vary by state, driver record, etc but can the Y be cheaper?

In 20 years from new the hybrid only costs me $10k in energy and $6k in scheduled maintenance. That leaves the Y costing $65,900 and the hybrid ~$61.

I see a $20k to $5k difference (depending on the year) in outlay. And that difference would be generating some return favorable to the hybrid case.

It just doesn't make anything close to financial sense to me. Ecological sense, yes. Fun, yes.