Hydrogen tour and FCEVs

You got it right. The inefficiency of hydrogen and impracticality is why a mult-billion dollar rocket has scrubbed twice in Florida. Elon calls them ‘fool cells’ and he is right even if not the first.

Bob Wilson

 

and then, a miracle happens...

 

Sounds right. Economies of scale can get the component costs down, but wouldn't change the energy requirements.

FCEVs might work out better for shipping, where you require less infrastructure. There is also the short term question of battery supply where hydrogen might get a start with shipping and grid storage. Then there are fuel cells that don't run on hydrogen.

As for the tank and filling pressures, those are actually in bar, which are 0.986923 atmosphere according to Google. The 350 station is an old one from when that was the standard. 700 bar is what hydrogen cars available now use.

 

The fossil fuel industry is a better efficiency bet than hydrogen. Fossil fuels are already storable. Why create an efficiency loss so you can store it in a less efficient manner. Some like to say, "the hydrogen highway is a dead end". It's the technology that promises to be ready in just 10 more years, ever since the 1960's.
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In a BEV you start with 100 kwh, charge the battery (~90% efficient) then later you discharge and drive the wheels (90%).
So you get 81 kwh out to the wheels.

Now let's compare with electrolysis and a fuel cell.
You run the electrolyzer (55%, maybe 60% or more at scale) to produce the H2.
Next you compress it (85% to 95%) and then liquefy it (70-80%).
Now you store it (let's assume no losses) and refuel (assume 100%)
Next you run it through the fuel cell (maybe 60-70%) to get electricity.

I've left out things that are common to both, such as motor and other drive train losses.
Multiply out all those things -- adjust the numbers if you want.
You get about 20 to 32 kwh out compared to 81 for the BEV
That is 2.5x to 4x of a difference.
Even if the electrolysis were to increase to 80% you only get a few percent increase.

Mike

 

Most hydrogen is still made for natural gas. The Mirai and a hypothetical Camry hybrid CNG can both go about the same distance with the same amount of NG. That's without considering the difference in energy requirements in getting the fuel into the cars' tanks. Considering renewable fuels, we can make methane from electrolysis hydrogen by adding more energy and CO2. That increases the cost for a CNG car, but the costs of shipping methane and getting into a car tank are lower to begin with.

It's mostly psi; so 10k and 5k for the hydrogen standards. Japan is going higher, with pressures in the 12k range. The Mirai tanks are actually made for that. Which is another issue with hydrogen; an improvement in hydrogen storage isn't cross compatiable. The cars and fillers for 350 and 700 bar use different nozzles. Something new, like metal hydride, may not work at all with existing refueling stations. So money will be spent to upgrade.

A faster charging battery comes along, and it can still charge at old chargers at a slower rate, and newer chargers can slow down for older EVs.

 

I always see this asked about batteries, but I don't recall this being asked about fuel cells How long does a fuel cell last and what is the cost of replacing it? Now, I know there is no real set time for batteries or even an IC engine/trans combo, but I just don't see it being asked for the almighty fuel cell.

 

Discussed some here, Fuel Cell Car Depreciation | Page 2 | PriusChat

The DOE fuel cell program had a goal by 2020 for durability based on voltage output loss. It was an average loss of less than 10% after 5000hrs of use. That works out to I think 150k miles for a non-plug in FCEV. Fuel cells of the gen1 Mirai generation were hitting the 10% average voltage loss in the 4000 to 4500 range.

This is a manufacturing cost analysis from 2017.
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2018/02/f49/fcto_battelle_mfg_cost_analysis_100_250kw_pp_chp_fc_systems_jan2017.pdf
A fuel cell of the Mirai's power rating would be around $25k, adjusted for inflation, and if over 50k were being made a year. I don't think Toyota has published actual cost though. On introduction of the Mirai, they said the fuel cell costs were reduced by 95%, but that is going from the previous FCEV generation. The FCX Clarity was literally a million dollar car then.

 

So, we have a fuel cell, limited life fuel tanks, a high voltage battery, a lack of infrastructure and a fuel that takes fuel to create the energy to make the fuel. Is that about right?

 

Midwestern partnership backs hydrogen as clean energy source (msn.com)

"The partnership includes Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin, whose economies are dominated by agriculture and heavy industry such as steel and automobile manufacturing.

Climate legislation that President Joe Biden signed last month offers a tax credit intended to make clean hydrogen more competitive.

Those measures “made it almost certain that clean hydrogen development will become a major alternative for producing energy both in the Midwest and nationally,” said Zachary Kolodin, Michigan’s chief infrastructure officer."

 

From the article:

This is fluff, which is more than it deserves.
Clean hydrogen is a great idea for using excess renewable energy. It is a lousy idea for non-centralized transportation.

 

Maybe not fluff

Toyota to Assemble Fuel Cell Modules at Kentucky Plant in 2023 - Toyota USA Newsroom

"Starting in 2023, a dedicated line at Toyota Motor Manufacturing Kentucky (TMMK) will begin assembling integrated dual fuel cell (FC) modules destined for use in hydrogen-powered, heavy-duty commercial trucks. The FC modules bring Toyota’s electrification strategy further into focus as it will allow truck manufacturers to incorporate emissions-free fuel cell electric technology into existing platforms with the technical support of Toyota under the hood."

Hydrogen Roadmap for the State of Michigan Workshop | Center for Sustainable Systems (umich.edu)

open minds = possibilities

Our world is a wonderful place where scientist are continuing to expand our horizons and opportunities.

 

"It will take advantage of assets such as the region's pipelines and tanks for distributing and storing ammonia, which consists largely of hydrogen and is a key ingredient in fertilizer."

Water is also mostly hydrogen, you wouldn't simply pump hydrogen through water lines.

Shipping hydrogen is so costly that development is going on to cheaply strip the hydrogen off ammonia at the end point, as shipping ammonia is magnitudes easier than hydrogen.

It is also great for green ammonia, if you are planning to replace fossil ammonia with it.

Toyota should have been pursuing commercial vehicles for hydrogen from the beginning. The refueling infrastructure is easier to build out than that for personal cars.

Article doesn't say how many fuel cells they plan to build a year. Need 50k to get the efficiencies of scale, and then that fuel cell will be in the $35k to $40k range. Then you need to add the entire EV drive train, battery, and hydrogen tanks.

 

If you are curious, they are starting out small for the manufacturing numbers and based on the results will adjust to meet demand or lack of demand.

It is a start with actual investment capital and manufacturing assets to test the market.

It is not the end all and be all of everything it is just a start and test for the viability.

Not everything needs to be a Grand Opera or a Home run, eventually enough singles will drive in runs.

It ties in very nicely with the Midwestern Hydrogen Partnership announcement today

 

That is exactly what they were doing with the Mirai. How well has that gone?

Hydrogen fuel for cars or trucks isn't going to to anywhere as a market without the infrastructure. Yet it sounds like Toyota still isn't going to do anything about that besides hoping a government pays for it.

The Midwestern partnership is too new to have any definitive plans. Maybe they will put in vehicle refueling infrastructure, and save Toyota's FCEV products. Or they focus of replacing fossil hydrogen uses with green hydrogen. Which should be the priority for green hydrogen.

 

And yet, somehow, Toyota knows that consumer don't want BEVs.

Mike

 

You can't force open closed minds.

However the world is a large place with many opoportunities and exciting possibilities for open welcoming minds.

Gov. Beshear working to bring hydrogen investments, jobs to Kentucky (wkyt.com)

" Gov. Andy Beshear announced Monday he was working to bring hydrogen investments and jobs to Kentucky by working with fellow governors in six states to advance a hydrogen market, supply chain and workforce development across the Midwest region.

“Kentucky’s robust infrastructure, strong chemical and manufacturing base, along with our leadership in the automotive and logistics sectors position us as a natural location for economic development in hydrogen,” said Beshear. “We are looking forward to working with our Midwest and local industry partners to build a hydrogen economy in Kentucky.”

In 2021, Toyota Motor Manufacturing Kentucky announced a $461 million upgrade to its Georgetown manufacturing plant, which starting next year will begin assembling integrated dual fuel cell modules destined for use in hydrogen-powered, heavy-duty commercial trucks.

In July, Kentucky Interstates 64, 65 and 75 were approved by the Federal Highway Administration as hydrogen transportation corridors, supporting the development of hydrogen fueling infrastructure on those key freight corridors."

Real projects-real capital investments-real manufacturing capacity.

Real open minds willing to try new technologies.

Maybe they will develop into widespread application - maybe not - but real-world projects aimed at making alternative energies practical and appliable to real life.

Now lets' jump on and diminish the effort and destroy the people trying to develop alternative energies - right?

We should probably stop working on electric cars also,
'Mass adoption of EVs will not happen by 2030' - future Net Zero
or is that type negativity just silly and in the big picture hurting alternative and promising energy solutions to our many energy related challenges.

Come to think of it cars will never really be a thing - horse and buggies are the way we have always done it and will continue to do it., that is the way people thought years ago.

open minds= possibilities
closed minds = dead ends and no progress

I respect others opinions and always like to hear them. I certainly don't know everything on the subject but do refuse to close my mind to possible positive solutions.

I think I am beating a dead horse here ( maybe horse and buggy) I won't post any more on this subject in this thread as people are just not open to it.

 

Hydrogen has its place. IMO, heavy duty trucking is one of the possibilities.
Light duty vehicles is a boondoggle as shown by the Mirai.

I’m all for research, just leave it in the lab until more of the issues are worked out. I’d guess that would only be ‘another 10 years’

An open mind is a good thing, unless it is so open your brain falls out.