Featured Tesla loses the race for mainstream EVs to GM

Wow!

Would like to know who the marketing department feels is the target consumer for this model vehicle and how many they expect to sell.

My first pickup was a 1968 Chevrolet Step side pickup 250 straight 6 with a 4-speed manual transmission I picked up at a Nebraska Highway Department used vehicle auction for $750 - I am probably not one of the targeted customers for the new Ford Lighting $94,000 model.

 

I'm pretty sure the Ford will sell, if not there, on a swap at another Ford dealer.
From Ford's website for the Lightning models.
"Due to high demand, the current model year is no longer available for retail order. Contact your dealer for more information.".

 

The OP linked an article about affordable pricing. I agree that the bolt is much more affordable than the model Y. Is it more mainstream? Not at all. Sales are tiny compared to the model Y that will sell 750K+ units world wide next year and even this year, when added to its platform mate model 3, will sell over 1M.

There are segments in the market. People will buy the bolt and bolt ev because of the tech and are in the early adopter part of the market. Most buyers of the model 3/Y are buying it for how well it performs in the sport sedan and luxury sport activity vehicle segments. Motor trend place the model 3 as the best at being a sports sedan. These are in the early majority part of the market.

 

You aren't a customer for any high trim pick up.

A F150 Limited 4WD hybrid is $86k with fees, before the dealer starts adding extras like bed liners and covers.

 

I have a question...

What "affordable car" is considered "mainstream?" When looking at the cheapest cars out there, the Chevy Spark, the Mitsubishi Mirage, etc., I don't see these as being the highest selling vehicles.

I think cheap cars have long been avoided due to the cheapness of used cars. I got an Avalon for less than the price of a Yaris. But as things sit now, if used car prices don't change, I can see more people wanting cheaper new cars. That would be me. If I sell the Avalon anytime soon I might be able to get a Corolla. If the Avalon devaluates too much more and I don't save for the next car I'd be stuck with either a very old car or a new Mitsubishi Mirage or similar.

 

you said it yourself. corolla, camry, civic, accord, a few chevys and fords, and others

 

But if a new Chevy Spark's monthly expenses would eat 20% of my income, imagine a new Corolla, especially a hybrid.

 

'affordable' is in the eye of the beholder. i wouldn't consider a corolla hybrid mainstream, but yeah, what's a corolla these days? probably more than i paid for my last camry.
we live in strange times

 

Absolutely...Pickups are the new 'luxury boxes on wheels'...just like Cadillac's used to be.

 

Don't forget the Ford Maverick. It's cheaper to drive a Maverick than a Camry or even a Camry Hybrid.

 

Yep...I meant the higher end models.....and higher trim levels. The Maverick is the only 'affordable' pickup I know of. However, even the Maverick tops out at around 38K or so....if I remember correctly.

 

Suggesting someone "contact your dealer" is like giving your customer the finger. I'd rather eat 2 day old gas station sashimi than talk to a stealership.
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I think all cars are going that way. Here's what I calculated to pay just fuel and the cheapest base MSRP value of the following vehicles on a 5 year loan at my current 17,500 miles per year at $4.50 per gallon average:

• Mitsubishi Mirage = $491 per month
• Chevy Spark = $495 per month
• Nissan Versa = $557 per month
• Ford Maverik = $627 per month
• VW Jetta = $630 per month
• Corolla non-hybrid = $637 per month
• Corolla Hybrid = $637 per month
• Prius Prime = $675 per month half fuel, half electricity
• Camry Hybrid = $717 per month
• Prius Prime = $726 per month 100% fuel
• RAV4 Prime = $934 per month half fuel, half electricity

Add insurance, tags and maintenance to those numbers, so about $100 to $200 or more per month, depending on several factors. For an example, I've been paying $180 per month for just insurance on just one car and I'm nearly 40 years old and don't have any tickets. And I didn't include the destination charge, so that could be the downpayment. Seems like to own even the cheapest new vehicle you need to set aside at least $700 per month.

 

Looking at a pie chart representing the major EV manufacturing players - and who will likely have what share of future production ... it appears GM will loose the race all together ... much less main stream, what ever that is. With GMs charge speed being incredibly slower than many other brands, cost will not be such a major factor of sales ... if GM continues slow poke charging.




.

 

Charge speed isn't a problem with the Ultium cars. It peaks at 190kW; higher for models with a double battery pack.

 

Is that just EV's? What percent of new cars will be EV's in 2030?

 

Do those figures include depreciation or residual value? What happens when your ownership stretches to 8 or 10 years? What vehicle will you want to drive for that long?

 

No it doesn't. If I traded in the Avalon right now you could take $200 off of those monthly's. Those are just someone starting out on their first car and doesn't include depreciation or residual value. Just fuel and payments.

If we keep adding fuel at $4.50 per gallon then my 10 year would look like this:

Total/averaged monthly
10 Years, 175,000 miles:

• Mitsubishi Mirage = $40,102/$334
• Chevy Spark = $42,825/$356
• Prius Prime = $44,711/$373
• Corolla Hybrid = $45,792/$382
• Nissan Versa = $46,545/$388
• Ford Maverick = $48,262/$402
• VW Jetta = $49,381/$412
• Corolla non-hybrid = $50,152/$418
• Camry Hybrid = $50,592/$422
• RAV4 Prime = $62,186/$518

And 15 years ownership:

15 Years, 262,500 miles:

• Prius Prime = $48,922/$272
• Mitsubishi Mirage = $50,744/$288
• Corolla Hybrid = $53,364/$296
• Chevy Spark = $55,950/$310
• Camry Hybrid = $58,164/$323
• Ford Maverick = $58,904/$327
• Nissan Versa = $59,670/$332
• VW Jetta = $60,962/$339
• Corolla non-hybrid = $62,084/$344
• RAV4 Prime = $62,186/$378

Someone jumping into a base model Tesla with zero saved for a down payment and no trade in value in another vehicle would have to pay some $1,000 per month out of the nose even with a 7 year loan once you factor taxes, insurance, maintenance, etc. If families don't pay more than 20% of their income on a vehicle, then 45% of families in the USA could not afford a new Tesla as their only car for the whole family. If we go by individual incomes, then 65% of individuals in the USA could not afford a new Tesla. Of course again, I'm not including resale value. But resale value means nothing until you resale it.

A 50,000 mile used Tesla should retain 75% of it's initial value, and a 100,000 mile used Tesla 50%. That means 34% of inidividuals in the USA won't even have the chance of buying a 100,000 mile used Tesla, based on payments only without factoring in the cost to repair.

 

As pointed out, you must include the depreciation and resale value of the car in the cost analyses. Today's used car value is certainly abnormal, but I am sure that 5 years old Prius Prime has better resale value than 5 years old Mirage percentage-wise.

At least until last year, Prius Prime was cheaper to own than any cars I have ever owned in the past. As I commented in #191, the last PP paid me to drive. The current PP is also in black if I sell it now or any time soon.

 

True, if you're already into the car buying cycle.

When I got the Avalon (used) I was seriously considering a new Prius Prime. But the cost would have been way more than what I could afford, even if by now the total cost of ownership would have been lower than what I've spent on the Avalon. Sometimes you have to spend more initially to save more in the long run. But that isn't always possible.

Resale value means nothing until you sell it or trade it in.