Featured Tesla loses the race for mainstream EVs to GM

Ralph just sees himself being eclipsed by online influencers and wants publicity. Or is he going to run for President again?

Think anyone in the Tesla buying age group even knows who he is?

 

Right, not sure where this is going, this exchange started with the statement “Regarding (the lack of) affordability of new vehicles”. So we agree, no?

Would add that it is worse than that. The article is clickbait titled “How Tesla Lost The Race For Affordable EVs To An Unexpected Rival”. Indeed the race isn’t over. But GM/Bolt has also not shown they have surged ahead in the race at this point either.

GM/Bolt is missing (among additional reasons) a crucial component of what make something “affordable”. If it is houses, clothing, electronics, or most any other item, things affordable have at minimum a pleurality, if not outright majority, of sales units. GM/Bolt is indeed not the winner there with BEVs.

 

definitely click bait, and probably shorted tesla and bought gm just before releasing it.

looking at the stock, i'd say it didn't work. but they won't stop trying. it's like post #123, it just kills some people that tesla is doing well. i just can't figure out why

 

Said all along the Bolt's success comes down to whether GM makes them. It also isn't GM's only affordable EV coming out. No hard details yet, but the Equinox might be closer in price to the ICE model than the Bolt EV to the Trax.

Tesla right seems to be focused on getting production up for the current models. If they are planning a more affordable model, it won't come to market until years later.

There is an appearance here that a critique of Tesla's lack of an affordable model means an attack of Tesla as a whole.

Affordable cars in general? That is mostly a temporary thing from the issues in supply lines. It will work itself out in time. So will the prices for BEVs. The TCO likely works out in their favor now in most places. There is just little incentive to put out affordable ones now.

The Spark EV came out the same year as the Model 3. It was a tiny four seater with 82 miles of range. It was almost $26k back then. The current ICE one's MSRP starts at $13,600. The Bolt EV is bigger, has a fifth seat, over 250 miles of range, and the 2023 is priced $395 lower than the Spark EV.

The battery recall was a major set back to any sales surge it could have had while other EVs were doing well. Then I don't think GM has much interest in it. Not because it's an EV, but because it isn't their EV. The Bolt was basically a joint project with LG. Since its introduction, GM has developed BEV platforms, their own motors, and the Ultium battery suite that is being used in their upcoming BEVs. It is already a rumor the Bolt won't live past this generation.

Being in the popular small SUV segment with the Rav4, the Equinox EV has a better shot of that sales surge.

 

If Tesla had more car designs ready to produce, they would not be able to produce more cars in total right now.
The only reason to do it (in the short term) would be if they could produce them in volume and at higher margins than the current cars.

I think the semi is strategic to show that a BEV semi is viable.
The Cybertruck is a wild card, IMO. I don't personally like the design but maybe others do.
And the material will make it hard to produce, at least initially, so production will be limited and has to be timed to coordinate with that part of the Austin factory ramp

Mike

 

But if Tesla did have the production capacity, they don't have the models to make. Tesla is not Toyota when it comes to future model plan announcements. Assuming they'll have a lower cost model ready to go when production of current models is met is a mistake.

Agree on the Semi.

The Cyber truck...eh. It addresses the pick up weakness of aerodynamics, but by evolving the gen1 Ridgeline form. Which puts limits on, or negates, on how some people use their truck. That is why the gen2 Ridgeline looks like an earlier Ranger. The Cybertruck is a lifestyle truck, if the lifestyle doesn't include the traditional pick up. I'm sure it will be a success for Tesla, but won't have a big impact on moving the segment to EVs

The material may not be the big issue. Tesla might be repeating the falcon door with the Cybertruck's wipers. More importantly, Tesla won't have the initiative with it like they did with their previous models; there will be three, known to the public, EV pick ups on the market by the time the Cybertruck arrives.

Which is the affordable EV race they loss. Tesla could very well put out a model that becomes the top seller, but it won't be the first. They could be entering the market like Toyota, a fast follower, but Toyota has the better reliability reputation.

 

I agree. While legacy manufacturers may arguably have a raw manufacturing advantage, that doesn't matter. What does matter for EVs is *battery* manufacturing capacity...and Tesla wins...hands down. Heck, Toyota can't even keep up with PHEVs with a vastly smaller battery ( cough...rav4 prime...cough ). We are seeing 'limited releases' in nearly every non Tesla PHEV and BEV that have been announced. The legacy names just can't keep up.

 

Toyota is the worse example, being the last of the major automakers in securing supply lines for EV batteries.
GM, Volkswagen Build Up Their Battery Supply Chains Amid Electric-Vehicle Push - WSJ
Domestic EV Battery Manufacturing Capacity Grows
Ford Releases New Battery Capacity Plan, Raw Materials Details to Scale EVs; On Track to Ramp to 600K Run Rate by ’23 and 2M+ by ’26, Leveraging Global Relationships | Ford Media Center
Volkswagen announces $20 billion effort to build its own EV batteries - The Verge

 

I don't know. I do know that a new Tesla drove one of my clients 60 miles through some of the worst, most unpredictable traffic to get him to me a few weeks ago, so color me impressed.

 

Where has Toyota been sourcing their hybrid batteries from over the last 25 or so years? Seems to me that they'd have a line on making them larger already.

 

GM has a $6300 rebate on the 22s since they reduced the MSRP on the 23s. Stealerships might give you the rebate, but sell it over MSRP. Shop around for one that sells it for MSRP minus the rebate.

I think GM did they right thing by giving a $5900 check to those that bought a Bolt in 2022 before the pricing reduction was announced.

 

Toyota has been getting batteries from Panasonic, and (according to google) they have partnered with BYD in china. Panasonic also provides batteries to Tesla. It appears that Panasonic is the one that is developing the more advanced cells for Tesla.

 

My eldest son will be driving age around middle of next year. A used Bolt is top of the list right now, if one can be had at a reasonable price.

However, at the moment, used Bolt prices matching or greater than MSRP for new suggest either trickle of new vehicles from GM and/or significant stealership markups. Would consider lease too. Hopefully supply chains further untangled by the time he needs to move ahead.

 

The Spark EV came out mid 2013, the 3 mid 2017.

 

I always figured a large, loaded, dually Silverado should be delivered with a Spark in the pickup bed.

Bob Wilson

 

Looks like trickle from 2013-2017.

Spark EV was only sold in three states, and Chevrolet told Detroit Newsthat it sold only around 7,400 of them in total since its introduction in 2013.​

Chevrolet ends production of the Spark EV now that the Bolt EV is out – TechCrunch

 

Yeah, used prices are newish cars are crazy. I think it's better to buy new next year. If the Bolt stays at the price and gets a $7500 tax credit, it would be a steal. I would get a pre-order in soon.

 

Tesla knows years (plus or minus) in advance (just like others) what factories they'll have and their capacity
And then throw in some COVID delays on factory construction and they know the capacity further into the future.

Mike

 

Can we order and bypass the stealership vermin?

Here is cheapest entry level model on hand at our local dealership with “recent price drop”, only $9.5k markup:

 

At the start of the hybrid period, Toyota invested heavily in NiMH. To the point that they didn't switch to Li-ion when it started getting cost competitive. They don't have the supply for lithium yet.

Hybrid batteries are also quite tiny. Toyota could supply 18 Prii with the capacity going into one Rav4 Prime.

Sorry, the Spark came out the same year as the Model S.

The Spark EV was planned for national roll out, but the expected merging of foreign and domestic car fleets for CAFE didn't happen. GM was counting on the S. Korean car to help with domestic fleet figures. So it ended up a California and Oregon compliance car. Sales were spread to Maryland, and I think Texas, to train East Coast dealers and supply train on BEVs for the Bolt's arrival.

Of course they do, and if they were planning on an affordable model to be made with some of that future capacity soon, they'd be working on it now. Likely would have had a release event by now.

It's annoying, but Tesla's price increases because the wait lines got too long is no different than a dealer's market adjustment.